Equities Attempt To Recover; New Macbook Pros Anyone?

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Mon pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Stocks recovered a bit from some of the losses that were suffered last week. Investors were encouraged by positive corporate earnings announcements, including Berkshire Hathaway (BERK). The S&P 500 posted a 0.72% gain, the Dow rose 0.46% and the Nasdaq also added a 0.72% gain on the day.

In tech news, Apple (AAPL) launched its 13-inch and 15-inch retina display MacBook Pros with faster versions of Intel processors and tons of RAM. Also, reports are saying that Apple will be buying Concept.io, an app that delivers an audio news feed based on stories that it picks up from NPR, TED Talks and the Harvard Business Review. The stock is up 21.65% year-to-date.

Last week, the Dow dropped 2.8%, its biggest weekly drop in six months. The S&P 500 fell 2.7%, its largest percentage drop in over two years. Investors had several reasons to pull back: Argentina’s default, escalating violence in Ukraine, Israel and Gaza, as well as concerns that the Federal Reserve was poised to start raising interest rates next year. Let’s see what new news comes in this week that may shake, rattle and roll the markets.

Our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight joined the turnaround session with 9 of them gaining but no new highs were made.

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ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 08/01/2014

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 398 ETFs, of which currently 297 (last week 362) are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 97 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 67 ETFs (last week 86) have managed to remain in bullish territory after the recent market volatility.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 612 (last week 742) above the line and 238 below it out of the 850 that I follow.

Take a look:

1. ETF Master Cutline Report     

2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report

3. MF Cutline Report

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.

If you missed the original post about the Cutline approach, you can read it here.

One Man’s Opinion: Will The Fed Change Its Course After The Latest Nonfarm Payroll Report?

Ulli Market Review Contact

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The July payroll report showed the economy added 209,000 jobs for the month. A number that close to economists’ forecast of a 230,000 jobs gain indicates it is in-line with expectations and the street shouldn’t really be disappointed, particularly as job gains for May were revised upwards to 298,000.

However, the lack of growth in the average earnings-hour is a negative since wage-inflation is required for general price levels to rise. The July unemployment rate ticked up to 6.2 percent from 6.1 percent the previous month. It went up possibly because of more people entering the labor force, and hence, should not be a matter of much concern.

It’s basically a goldilocks report in the sense that it’s on expectations, said Alan Krueger, a Princeton University professor of economics and former chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. The uptick in unemployment rate is within the statistical margin of error and not a significant statistical movement. The increase in the labor participation rate was also not statistically significant. The slight gain in unemployment could be noise though it would be encouraging if more people came back to the labor force.

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New ETFs On The Block: Calamos Focus Growth ETF (CFGE)

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

56371366Calamos Investments, the Naperville, Chicago-based $25.3 billion investment manager better known for its line-up of mutual funds, forayed into the ETF world with the introduction of the Calamos Focus Growth ETF (CFGE) in an attempt to leverage its stock-picking skills.

The Calamos Focus Growth Mutual Fund, which is nearly 11 years old and manages $74 million in assets, returned more than 30 percent over the past year, easily beating the three broad equity indexes.

The new fund, which is listed on the NASDAQ, ventures into the thinly populated world of actively-managed equity ETFs. Most of the more than 90 US-listed actively-managed ETFs are focused on fixed-income products, and Calamos’ expertise in growth investment and active management is likely to give the fund an advantage as it enters an arena that some analysts believe will see robust growth with the picking up of the business cycle.

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08-01-2014

Ulli Newsletter Archives Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For August 1, 2014

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2014/07/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-07312014/

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Market Commentary

Friday, August 1, 2014

STOCKS END THE WEEK ON A SOUR NOTE AMIDST ARGENTINEAN DEBT CONCERNS

Fri pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

U.S. stocks fell for a second day Friday, adding to the massive sell-off the day before and giving the market its worst week in two years. The S&P 500 fell 53 points to 1,925, down 2.63%.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 468 points to end the week at 16,493, down 2.8%, and the Nasdaq dropped 2.17%.

Argentina captured headlines today when it was announced that the country defaulted on its debt, raising fears among skittish investors already fretting about corporate earnings growth, rising interest rates, global conflict and an aging bull market.

Energy and financial stocks were among the biggest decliners. Chevron (CHEV), the nation’s second-largest oil and gas company behind Exxon Mobil (XOM), fell $1.34, or 1%, to $127.90. While Chevron’s earnings were better than analysts had predicted, the company’s oil and gas production fell in the quarter.

Investors did get some good news about the U.S. economy though today. The Labor Department said that U.S. employers created 209,000 jobs in July, while the unemployment rate rose to 6.2% from 6.1%. July was the sixth-straight month that U.S. employers created more than 200,000 jobs, a sign that the U.S. economy continues to recover. Economists also pointed out that the rise in the unemployment rate was likely due to more out-of-work people actively looking for jobs.

Our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight ended up mixed today with 4 of them gaining and 6 of them losing; no new highs were made but 1 ETF slipped into the red YTD.

2. ETFs in the Spotlight

In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.

It features 10 broadly diversified ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Monday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year.

Here are the 10 candidates:

MaxDD

9 of them are in “buy” mode, meaning their prices are above their respective long term trend lines by the percentage indicated (%M/A).

Year to date, here’s how the above candidates have fared so far:

YTD

To be clear, the first table above shows the position of the various ETFs in relation to their respective long term trend lines (%M/A), while the second one tracks their trailing sell stops in the “Off High” column. The “Action” column will signal a “Sell” once the -7.5% point is taken out in the “Off High” column.

3. Domestic Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) headed towards their long-term trend lines as this week’s sell off took its toll. The change from last Friday’s close was quite dramatic but, for the time being, we are remaining on the bullish side by the following percentages:

Domestic TTI: +1.23% (last Friday +2.72%)

International TTI: +1.07% (last Friday +3.03%)

Have a nice weekend.

Ulli…

Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as advisory clients of mine, own some of these listed ETFs. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the guidelines specified.

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READER Q & A FOR THE WEEK

All Reader Q & A’s are listed at our web site!
Check it out at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/q&a.php

A note from reader Chris:

Q: Ulli: Have you seen any benefit by an investor creating their own portfolio comprising of a mix of Value ETFs (Large, Mid, Small, Developed, Emerging) and then coupled with Momentum ETFs of similar types. The goal is that both types of Value & Momentum ETFs hopefully won’t necessarily correlate with each other depending what the market is doing and spread some of the risk around.

My other question: are Momentum ETFs similar to Growth ETFs regarding how their index formulas/algorithms are determined or are both completely different kinds of ETF strategies?

A: Chris: No, I have not heard about any reader attempting that. “Value” is such a vague definition. When markets rise or fall, “all” equities will follow that trend, the only difference is the degree of change. A good case in point would be yesterday’s (7/31/14) price action where SPY dropped 1.94%. Its low volatility cousin, SPLV, which some consider a value play, surrendered 1.87%. That is hardly non-correlation.

To me, it’s far more important that you employ an exit strategy that gets you out of the market before a major disaster strikes, such as the bear effects of 2000 and 2008. Trying to distinguish between a Momentum ETF and Growth ETF is nothing but an exercise in futility.

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WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?

Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly or get more details at:

https://theetfbully.com/personal-investment-management/

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Back issues of the ETF/No Load Fund Tracker are available on the web at:

https://theetfbully.com/newsletter-archives/

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For August 1, 2014

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2014/07/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-07312014/

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Market Commentary

Friday, August 1, 2014

STOCKS END THE WEEK ON A SOUR NOTE AMIDST ARGENTINEAN DEBT CONCERNS

Fri pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

U.S. stocks fell for a second day Friday, adding to the massive sell-off the day before and giving the market its worst week in two years. The S&P 500 fell 53 points to 1,925, down 2.63%.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 468 points to end the week at 16,493, down 2.8%, and the Nasdaq dropped 2.17%.

Argentina captured headlines today when it was announced that the country defaulted on its debt, raising fears among skittish investors already fretting about corporate earnings growth, rising interest rates, global conflict and an aging bull market.

Energy and financial stocks were among the biggest decliners. Chevron (CHEV), the nation’s second-largest oil and gas company behind Exxon Mobil (XOM), fell $1.34, or 1%, to $127.90. While Chevron’s earnings were better than analysts had predicted, the company’s oil and gas production fell in the quarter.

Investors did get some good news about the U.S. economy though today. The Labor Department said that U.S. employers created 209,000 jobs in July, while the unemployment rate rose to 6.2% from 6.1%. July was the sixth-straight month that U.S. employers created more than 200,000 jobs, a sign that the U.S. economy continues to recover. Economists also pointed out that the rise in the unemployment rate was likely due to more out-of-work people actively looking for jobs.

Our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight ended up mixed today with 4 of them gaining and 6 of them losing; no new highs were made but 1 ETF slipped into the red YTD.

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