Markets Fly High On Fed Speculation

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Mon pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Markets soared higher today ahead of a two-day Federal Reserve meeting beginning tomorrow that may set the stage for the first U.S. interest rate hike since the global financial crisis.

In economic news, a growing number of investors expect the U.S. central bank to raise its benchmark interest rate sooner than anticipated and will be watching to see whether officials signal that’s the case. Many speculate that low interest rates have been boosting the stock market for the past couple of years and that a rise in interest rates could end the bull market in the near future but—no one really knows so we remain in rally mode leading up to the Fed announcement.

In the world of online advertising, Pinterest, a privately held company, has raised $367 million of late. The capital infusion has landed a valuation for the company around $11 billion, which makes the company one of the world’s most highly valued early stage companies. Prior to this funding round, Pinterest had raised $764 million.

All of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight recovered and surged higher with healthcare (XLV) not only leading the pack with a +2.21% but also making new yearly highs. Mid-Caps (IWS) were lagging with “only” a +1.10% gain.

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ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 03/13/2015

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 410 ETFs, of which currently 237 (last week 246) are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 97 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 37 ETFs (last week 41) have managed to remain in bullish territory after the recent market volatility.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 352 (last week 281) above the line and 468 below it out of the 820 that I follow.

Take a look:

1. ETF Master Cutline Report

2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report

3. MF Cutline Report

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.

If you missed the original post about the Cutline approach, you can read it here.

One Man’s Opinion: Are Europe And Japan Likely To Give Better Returns In 2015?

Ulli Market Review Contact

92835431The Federal Reserve didn’t drop the word “patient” from its latest forward guidance because it wanted to give itself the maximum flexibility, said David Joy, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial.

The Fed is likely to see three additional months of labor data and if the dollar strengthens amid slumping inflation and falling unemployment rate. They are likely to give themselves the flexibility to do what they think is right starting from June, he added.

Asked if the Fed should worry about the strong dollar which, in turn, could hit corporate profits and slowdown job gains, David answered in affirmative. While the data is going to tell the story, the Fed knows it’s getting close.

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New ETFs On The Block: RevenueShares Global Growth Fund ETF (RGRO)

Ulli International ETFs Contact

91551519RevenueShares, the pioneers of revenue-weighted exchange-traded funds, recently expanded its lineup of unique funds with the launch of the RevenueShares Global Growth Fund (RGRO).

The firm’s six existing funds follow the so-called revenue-weighted model with different tweaks. For example, the RevenueShares Large Cap Fund (RWL) takes the S&P 500 Index and re-weights the constituents by their respective revenues. So instead of Apple Inc (the largest US company by market-cap), Wal-Mart Stores Inc captures top spot in the fundamentally-weighted ETF.

The recently-launched RGRO focuses on developed and emerging markets and seeks to maximize returns by investing in the fastest growing companies in the fastest growing countries, i.e. it uses a GDP screen to find countries that have increasing revenues.

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03-13-2015

Ulli Newsletter Archives Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For March 13, 2015

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2015/03/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-03122015/

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Market Commentary

Friday, March 13, 2015

STUMBLING ON A ROCKY ROAD

Fri pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Yesterday’s great rebound smelled like a dead cat bounce just 24 hours later, as the major indexes hit reverse but managed to cut losses during the past 30 minutes of trading.

This is now the third straight week that the main indexes have slipped, as wild swings in currencies and the dollar combined forces to give the bears the upper hand for the time being. Not helping were a host of facts, such as oil prices nearly slumping 10%, commodity prices slipping and weak economic data souring the mood while investors were wondering if a rate hike by the Fed in this environment is truly a realistic expectation.

Especially, when considering lack of wage growth, a slack in the labor market and a general slowdown in world economies, I am a little perplexed as to what the Fed sees in order to consider a tightening move. I guess we’ll have to wait and see until more details become known. I for one would not be surprised to see the rate hike scenario to be postponed.

All of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight headed south today with SPLV taking the lead at -0.88%, despite yesterday’s great move to the upside, while healthcare (XLV) showed the most resistance by only surrendering -0.19%. 5 of them remain positive YTD.

2. ETFs in the Spotlight

In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.

It features 10 broadly diversified ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Monday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year.

Here are the 10 candidates:

MaxDD

The above table simply demonstrates the magnitude with which some of the ETFs are fluctuating in regards to their positions above or below their respective individual trend lines (%M/A). A break below, represented by a negative number, shows weakness, while a break above, represented by a positive percentage, shows strength.

For hundreds of ETF/Mutual fund choices, be sure to reference Thursday’s StatSheet.

Year to date, here’s how the above candidates have fared so far:

YTD

Again, the first table above shows the position of the various ETFs in relation to their respective long term trend lines (%M/A), while the second one tracks their trailing sell stops in the “Off High” column. The “Action” column will signal a “Sell” once the -7.5% point has been taken out in the “Off High” column.

3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) followed the major indexes down during this roller coaster week and, while both of them slipped, the international one took a bigger hit as today’s numbers show:

Domestic TTI: +2.47% (last Friday +2.74%)—Buy signal effective 10/22/2014

International TTI: +1.98% (last Friday +2.98%)—Buy signal effective 2/13/2015

Have a nice weekend.

Ulli…

Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as advisory clients of mine, own some of these listed ETFs. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the guidelines specified.

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READER Q & A FOR THE WEEK

All Reader Q & A’s are listed at our web site!
Check it out at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/q&a.php

Reader Ed:

Q: Ulli: Do you post a sell signal for US ETFs/Funds should it occur during the week, between newsletters?

A: Ed: Whenever a Buy or Sell signal occurs I post it to the blog the same day. It also gets emailed to all subscribers, but I recommend you check the blog when we appear to get close, since email delivery is not always very reliable.

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WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?

Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly or get more details at:

https://theetfbully.com/personal-investment-management/

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Back issues of the ETF/No Load Fund Tracker are available on the web at:

https://theetfbully.com/newsletter-archives/

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For March 13, 2015

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

————————————————————-

THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2015/03/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-03122015/

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Market Commentary

Friday, March 13, 2015

STUMBLING ON A ROCKY ROAD

Fri pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Yesterday’s great rebound smelled like a dead cat bounce just 24 hours later, as the major indexes hit reverse but managed to cut losses during the past 30 minutes of trading.

This is now the third straight week that the main indexes have slipped, as wild swings in currencies and the dollar combined forces to give the bears the upper hand for the time being. Not helping were a host of facts, such as oil prices nearly slumping 10%, commodity prices slipping and weak economic data souring the mood while investors were wondering if a rate hike by the Fed in this environment is truly a realistic expectation.

Especially, when considering lack of wage growth, a slack in the labor market and a general slowdown in world economies, I am a little perplexed as to what the Fed sees in order to consider a tightening move. I guess we’ll have to wait and see until more details become known. I for one would not be surprised to see the rate hike scenario to be postponed.

All of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight headed south today with SPLV taking the lead at -0.88%, despite yesterday’s great move to the upside, while healthcare (XLV) showed the most resistance by only surrendering -0.19%. 5 of them remain positive YTD.

Read More