One Man’s Opinion: Will The Financial Sector Perform Well Once Rates Rise?

Ulli Market Review Contact

Man

The US economy has been growing at around 2-2.5 percent for a couple of years now while the business cycle has remained nearly flat, said Rob Morgan, chief investment officer at Sethi Financial Group.

While the economy grinds along, among asset classes, equities are likely to do well though P/E multiples are on the higher side, and some stocks are looking expensive. However, retail investors are yet to get back into the markets, which would bring some cash for the bullrun to continue for some more time, he observed.

Asked if the Fed can justify a rate hike when the US economy just “grinds along,” Rob answered affirmative. There could be more than one hike this year as the Fed really needs some ammo before the next recession, which is likely to be the basis for selling it to the public, he argued.

Read More

New ETFs On The Block: Hull Tactical US ETF (HTUS)

Ulli Equity ETFs, Long/Short ETFs Contact

Financial DataBlair Hull, one of the veterans of quantitative trading on the Wall Street, recently entered the exchange-traded fund industry in association Exchange Traded Concepts – a white label ETF service provider.

Hull’s actively managed fund uses hedge fund like proprietary trading strategies with an aim to give superior returns to the broader investor community.

Blair Hull, along with his partners, started the highly successful Hull Trading Company in 1985 and 14 years later sold the firm to Goldman Sachs for $531 million. Needless to say, Hull was one of the brightest minds in quant and his company among the most successful derivatives trading firms of his time. Incidentally, Hull had dabbled in politics and unsuccessfully contested the Democratic primary against Barack Obama in the Democratic Primary for the US State Senate in 2004.

Read More

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For July 24, 2015

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

————————————————————-

THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2015/07/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-07232015/

————————————————————

Market Commentary

Fri pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

The above 5-day chart tells the story for the week. The bears were clearly in charge with the S&P 500 surrendering over 2% during the last 5 trading sessions. Still, the index remains above where if started the month.

Biotechs were the big loser after having been a dream holding for the bulls for the past couple of years, so a correction was overdue. Even Amazon and its 9.8% surge could not save the day as the mood soured when new-home sales unexpectedly dropped against expectations of a gain.

Commodity prices continued with their collapse as weak data from China combined with poor earnings reports by heavyweights such as Caterpillar left their mark on the indexes. A Chinese manufacturing gauge fell to a 15 month low, raising questions as to whether the recent signs of stabilization were simply a mirage.

There were no winners today, with the exception of Consumer Discretionaries (XLY), which managed to stay even, despite the sell-off. 9 of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight slipped with the worst performer of the day being our winner for the year, namely Healthcare (XLV), which gave back 2.49%.

Read More

Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 07/23/2015

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, July 23, 2015

TOC021915

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/22/2014

TTI

Our main directional indicator, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI), broke through its long-term trend line generating a “Sell” for this arena effective 10/14/2014, which was followed by a violent break back above the line on 10/22/14 generating a new “Buy.” It was a classic whipsaw signal, and you can read more on my blog as to the events as they were unfolding.

As of today, our TTI (green line in above chart) is positioned above its long term trend line (red) by +1.37% keeping us in the market with our established positions.

Read More

Stocks Slide On Disappointing Earnings

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Thur pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Equities hit he skids for the 3rd day in a row as, following Apple’s disappointing report card yesterday, 3M and Caterpillar joined the crowd, and the slide in stocks continued killing any hope of a rebound. Commodities offered little help as they seem to be stuck in a bearish trend of their own.

In the case of Caterpillar, international sales have been unimpressive due to the pricing slump in coal, iron ore and copper. Not helping matters has been the hard hit energy industry where oil and gas prices continue their path south, so new heavy duty equipment has not been needed.

And as always, any and all economic reports are being scrutinized for any clues as to when the widely expected rise in interest will actually happen. According to the latest, the Fed is supposed to finally pull the trigger this coming September, but, the odds are only put at 50%.

All of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight joined the major indexes and headed lower. Resisting the sell-off the best was Healthcare (XLV), which gave back -0.34%, while the Financials (IYF) showed the most weakness by surrendering -0.83%.

Read More

Major Indexes Close Lower—Apple’s Slide Is The Culprit

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Wed pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Tech stocks continued to be a drag on the major indexes after results from Miscrosoft and Apple disappointed. As is always the case, Apple certainly did not do poorly; it’s just that expectations are so overblown than anything close to realty seems to cause a pullback.

In the bigger picture, the question remains whether the weakness in tech stocks is a reflection of how the economy is performing, and if this is a harbinger of things to come.

Despite the weakness, 8 of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight managed to buck the trend and close higher. Leading on the upside were the Financials (IYF) with +0.62%, while the downside was headed by the Global 100 with a -0.77% loss.

Read More