Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 11/05/2015

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, November 5, 2015

TOC110515

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 11/03/2015

TTI

Our main directional indicator, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in above chart) has recently crawled above its long term trend line (red) and finally generated a new “Buy” signal effective 11/3/15. The TTI is currently positioned +0.57% above its long term trend line. Be sure to log in to the blog for daily updates.

Read More

Equities Directionless Before Jobs Report

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Thur pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

It was a see-saw kind of day with no clear direction, as tomorrow’s looming jobs report kept traders on edge. We saw small gains and small losses before settling slightly below the unchanged line.

On the horizon continues to be the “will they or will they not” scenario about a possible rise in interest rates in December. Voicing his view was Atlanta Fed President Lockhart, who chimed in by saying that the case for a rate hike will “continue to firm up.” His message did nothing to move the markets out of their 2-day consolidation phase.

The dollar rallied pushing down some commodities and crushing oil, which dropped from $48/barrel yesterday to $45 today. Even good earnings from Facebook and Ralph Lauren could not push the indexes into plus territory at the close.

3 of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight bucked the trend and closed up led by the Financials (IYF) with +0.52%. On the losing side, Healthcare (XLV) took the dubious honors with a loss of -0.32%.

Read More

First Day Of Losses In November; Fed To Blame?

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Wed pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Stocks were trending upwards throughout the early part of the day, but fell after Fed Chair Janet Yellen said that a rate hike at its December meeting is a genuine possibility. The drop snapped a two day rally that pushed the Dow back into positive territory for the year. The Dow is still approaching its record 18,000 level, and many analysts see surpassing that high water mark as a legitimate possibility by year end.

In earnings action today, media giant Time Warner (TWX) topped earnings estimates with ease and also beat revenue expectations. On the other hand, shares of Papa John’s tumbled 14% after reporting slow third quarter sales and stating that they anticipate continued slower growth through the end of the year.

Also in the world of food giants, today Kraft Heinz (KHC) announced that it will close seven plants in north America over the next two years as part of a downsizing effort  that will eliminate about 2,600 jobs.

Finally, it was not a great day for energy stocks. The S&P Energy (.SPNY) fell about 1% as U.S. crude oil dropped about 3% to close at $46.54 a barrel.

All of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight followed the indexes lower. Consumer Discetionaries (XLY) fared the worst with -0.65%, while holding up best was the Dividend ETF (DVY) with -0.19%.

Read More

Dow Moves Back In Black

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Tue pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Stocks gained as Wall Street continued trucking higher on the previous day’s rally that sent the Dow back into the black for the year. Traders focused mostly on more earnings reports and corporate deals as they debated whether Monday’s stock market surge was the start of a lasting year-end rally.

Equities, which appeared to be on the brink of a major slump this summer, witnessed by a 10% drop, have rebounded sharply this fall. Driving the rebound has been a mix of better-than-expected corporate earnings, the Fed holding off on interest rate hikes and signs that China’s economy, while slowing, is not collapsing.

On the earnings front, insurer AIG (AIG), which activist investor Carl Icahn argues should split into three separate parts, fell short of earnings expectations. Shares of the company were down 4% to $60.99. We also heard today, that shares of cereal maker Kellogg (K) fell 3% to $68.38 after it reported quarterly sales that fell short of analyst estimates.

In auto tech, Tesla Motors (TSLA) beat analyst earnings estimates today for its third quarter, saying that it is beating production targets. However, the electric car maker reported losing 58 cents a share on an adjusted basis, or $75 million. Investors are lying in wait to see how the new ‘more affordable’ model will take off in 2016.

7 of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight closed up and 3 closed down. Sporting the best gain was Consumer Discretionaries (XLY) with +0.38%, while the loser of the day was the Low Volatility S&P ETF (SPLV), which gave back -0.64%.

Read More

Stocks Begin November With A Bang And A New Buy Signal For Domestic Equities

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Mon pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

U.S. stocks kicked off November with nice rally as investors reacted to a batch of corporate deals, fresh economic data and anticipate another big week of corporate earnings. For first time since Aug. 18 the S&P 500 closed above 2100. The index is now at 2104.05 nearing its all-time closing high of 2130.82.

In earnings news, shares of Mexican chain Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) ended down 2.5% after the company closed some restaurants out West in response to reports of suspected E-coli infection traced to its restaurants in Washington and Oregon.

After watching our Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI) hover slightly above its long-term trend line for 6 consecutive days, today’s breakout confirms the newly developed trend, which makes a new Buy signal for “broadly diversified domestic equity funds/ETFs” effective as of tomorrow. As the rally gained steam, I took the opportunity early this morning to add to some of our sector positions, which I established last week. For more details, please see section 3 below.

Equities were mixed around the globe. Shares in China and Hong Kong were dragged down by the weak manufacturing data out of mainland China, with its so-called PMI coming in line with forecasts at 49.8, which signals a contraction.

All of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight joined the rally and closed higher led by Healthcare (XLV) with +2.04%, while Consumer Discretionaries (XLY) lagged with +0.46%.

Read More

ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 10/30/2015

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 381 ETFs, of which currently 91 (last week 103) are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher. Volume figures can change in a hurry, so be sure to check first before investing.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 97 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 18 ETFs (last week 18) have managed to remain in bullish territory after the recent market volatility.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 226 (last week 223) above the line and 574 below it out of the 800 that I follow.

Take a look:

  1. ETF Master Cutline Report
  2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report
  3. MF Cutline Report

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.

If you missed the original post about the Cutline approach, you can read it here.