A Quiet And Mixed Tuesday

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Tue pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Today was a relatively lackluster scene on Wall Street, wherein the Nasdaq finished a bit lower and the S&P 500 and Dow a bit higher.

Apple (AAPL) moved markets a bit early on in the day, shortly after a report was released from Credit Suisse which hinted that the company has decreased its number of orders for the iPhone by about 10%.

Economic data was a bit limited today and focused primarily on the import and export prices, and Crude oil. Crude oil rallied to $44.70 a barrel about halfway through the day, after a report by the IEA that projected prices of the black gold moving back up to around $80 a barrel by 2020. The increase in consumption, of course, is due to rising demand from China and India.

There was an interesting bit of news on the telecommunications front today from T-Mobile (TMUS). The company announced a new program that will allow customers to watch video online without it counting towards data consumption, starting November 15. Investors had mixed reactions to the news it seems, as the stock closed about $1.53 lower.

9 of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight managed to gain as Consumer Discretionaries (XLY) took the lead with +0.95%. The loser of the day was the Global 100 (IOO) with -0.36%.

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Stocks Slide To Begin The Week; Q3 Earnings Still Not Impressive; Domestic TTI Slips And Touches Its Trend Line

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Mon pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Stocks slipped to kick off a new week of trading. It seemed as if investors are adjusting their portfolios for a likely interest rate hike from the Fed in December after an allegedly strong reading on jobs growth in October. All indexes fell about 1% on the day.

With third quarter earnings season wrapping up, investors are now looking to see how the end of the year will unfold in regards to corporate profits. The general consensus amongst analysts at present is that the fourth quarter won’t be any more impressive than the third. Companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post 3.7% lower adjusted profit in the final quarter of 2015.

If these predictions are correct, it would mark the second quarter in a row for declines. All but 50 of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported third-quarter results and profits are down about 1.6%, according to Cap IQ.

We heard an interesting bit of info from United Arab Emirates’ energy minister today. In a statement to the press, he said he believes oil prices will have a correction next year, partly due to the fact that he anticipates the UAE will increase daily production to 3.5 million barrels. The Emirates currently produces about 2.9 million barrels of oil a day and was the sixth-largest oil producer in 2014. If that comes true, the US fracking industry will be in for a world of hurt.

None of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight was able to buck the trend and close above the unchanged line. The bears were clearly in charge today pushing all indexes lower with Consumer Discretionaries (XLY) giving back -1.38%, while the Dividend ETFs (DVY) held up the best by surrendering only -0.48%.

The Domestic TTI headed south and broke its trend line by a tiny -0.01%. Please see section 3 for important details.

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ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 11/6/2015

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 381 ETFs, of which currently 97 (last week 91) are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher. Volume figures can change in a hurry, so be sure to check first before investing.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 97 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 17 ETFs (last week 18) have managed to remain in bullish territory after the recent market volatility.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 315 (last week 226) above the line and 485 below it out of the 800 that I follow.

Take a look:

  1. ETF Master Cutline Report
  2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report
  3. MF Cutline Report

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.

If you missed the original post about the Cutline approach, you can read it here.

One Man’s Opinion: Will Negative Reports Before The December Fed Meeting Derail A Rate-Hike This Year?

Ulli Market Review Contact

ManThe latest non-farm payroll report has come as a relief for most market observers and makes Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen’s job easier, said Diana Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial.

The 271,000 job additions in October not only dramatically reduce chances of a dissent (for a rate-hike) in her inner circle, but also among Charlie Evans (out of Chicago Fed) who is voting at the December FOMC meeting. Evans was temperate in his comments about the latest job report anyways as one of the things that he has been waiting for – wage acceleration – has been partly achieved (wages grew at 2.5 percent annual pace).

While the labor participation rate has fallen short of expectations, the latest report gives the economy a chance to move at the right direction and affirms the belief the economy is strong enough to handle a rate-hike, she noted.

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New ETFs On The Block: Goldman Sachs ActiveBeta US Large Cap Equity ETF (GSLC)

Ulli Equity ETFs Contact

InvestingGoldman Sachs Group Inc, one of the most reputable financial institutions in the world, has been conspicuous by their absence from the US exchange-traded funds industry for over two decades.

That changed recently when Goldman Sachs Asset Management – the fund manager overseeing more than $1 trillion assets, rolled out their first ETF based on the so-called “smart beta” methodology – a catchall phrase for funds that follow indexes with rules-based and quantitative investment strategy.

Till recently, Goldman’s name would be linked with two small ETNs – the $125 million GS Connect S&P GSCI Enhanced Commodity Total Return Strategy ETN (GSC) and the $7 million Claymore CEF-Linked GS Connect ETN (GCE).

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ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For November 6, 2015

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2015/11/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-11052015/

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Market Commentary

MARKETS CLOSE OUT ANOTHER WEEK OF GAINS

Fri pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Stocks ended mostly higher Friday and bond yields spiked after an impressive October jobs report may increase the odds that the Fed will pull the trigger and raise interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade at its next meeting in December.

Despite the S&P 500 sinking fractionally on Friday to just under 2100, all three major indexes posted their sixth straight week of gains. Over the past five trading sessions, all three rose 1% or more.

The employment report that had analysts’ heads spinning today showed that 271,000 jobs were created in October. This was almost 100,000 more than the 182,000 figure that had been projected. The only fly in the ointment was that, when looking under the hood, all gains went to the age group of 55-69, while the 24-54 year olds actually lost jobs—not anything that MSM found worthy of reporting.

Stocks continue to recover with flying colors from the market’s first correction, a drop of 10% or more, that hit in late August. The rebound has been fueled by better-than-expected third-quarter earnings in the U.S. (after sharply lowered expectations) and economic stimulus from central banks in Europe and China. Let’s see if the market can continue to find more upside momentum next week.

Only 2 of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight managed to eke out a gain today with the leader being the Financials (IYF) at +0.70%, while the Select Dividend ETF (DVY) gave back the most losing -1.34%.

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