Ulli... The ETF Bully

Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 12/10/2015

Ulli Thursday, 10 December 2015, 7:44 PM ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, December 10, 2015

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: SELL — since 11/13/2015

Our main directional indicator, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in above chart) has recently crawled above its long term trend line (red) and finally generated a new “Buy” signal effective 11/3/15. The market subsequently dropped, and we exited again on 11/13/15. As of today, the TTI remains below its trend line by -0.38%, which means we are in cash on the sidelines.

Stocks Snap 3-Day Losing Streak

Ulli Thursday, 10 December 2015, 4:40 PM Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Stocks rose as Wall Street halted a three-day downturn despite another drop in oil prices. We have been confronting a variety of issues this week including plunging oil prices, global economic pressures and the likelihood that the Fed will begin raising interest rates for the first time in almost a decade at its meeting next week. Economic reports that have come in over the past two months have led Fed Chair Janet Yellen to (unofficially) signal that the time is near to raise rates, which have been near zero since the financial crisis of 2008.

Things are not looking up for the oil and natural gas industry. U.S. Crude fell again today to close at $36.56 a barrel. In addition, we heard news that Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) said that it would be suspending its common stock dividend, reducing some production and revising its oil and gas capital spending strategy in response to market conditions. The Phoenix based natural resources company, which is the largest publicly-traded copper producer in the world, had already announced that it would put off investments in some long term projects.

We heard some interesting news from Walmart (WMT) today. The company is removing the need to get your wallet out at the register with a new digital payment method called Walmart Pay. The technology piece launched today in Bentonville, AK (Walmart’s headquarter city). The feature allows customers to pay for purchases in stores by scanning a QR code displayed at the register with their smartphone, instead of swiping or inserting a card at the payment terminal. Customers can store any payment method — credit card, debit card, prepaid card or gift card — in the Walmart Pay function within the Walmart app.

8 of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight gained on today’s modest rebound with the leader being

Healthcare (XLV), which added +0.75%. On the downside, the Select Dividend ETF (DVY) lost -0.36%.

Markets Fail To Break Two Day Slide—Domestic TTI Slips Back Below Its Trend Line

Ulli Wednesday, 9 December 2015, 3:47 PM Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Hopes of halting a two-day slide were dashed today as an early stock rally, which now looks like a gigantic head fake, faded and the Dow finished near the bottom of a huge 300-point swing. The Dow was doing fine in the first half of the day, gaining as much as 200 points before sinking fast in the afternoon to as much as a 100-point decline. The S&P 500 vacillated within a range of 43 points, or over 2%. These types of moves tend to happen at major inflection points meaning the next breakout could produce a sharp move in either direction.

Oil prices remained volatile in Wednesday’s trading as financial markets have come under pressure this week on oversupply concerns after OPEC countries decided to maintain current production levels. Prices recouped some losses early though after the government reported that crude supplies fell for the first time in 11 weeks, dropping 3.6 million barrels last week. U.S Crude closed the day at $37.20 a barrel.

And in housing news, the prospect of higher interest rates may be nudging more Americans to refinance their mortgages. We heard from the Mortgage Bankers Association today that mortgage applications rose a seasonally adjusted 1.2% the week ending Dec. 4 and that the increase was driven by refinancing applications, which jumped 4% from the previous week. Although refinancings don’t directly bolster the housing market, they can help the economy by leaving more spending money in consumers’ pockets each month—at least that’s how the theory goes.

All of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight succumbed to the sell-off and closed lower. Giving back the most were Consumer Discretionaries (XLY) with -1.28% while the Global 100 (IOO) held up best with a modest loss of -0.31%.

Oil Prices Drag Markets Lower

Ulli Tuesday, 8 December 2015, 3:41 PM Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Stocks ended down Tuesday but cut early sharp losses as financial markets came under pressure for a second straight day from volatile oil prices.

Oil prices fell 6% Monday and dropped as much as 2.7% to $36.64 a barrel in early trading today before reversing course and closing at $37.60 a barrel. The recent rout in oil prices was spurred by the decision by OPECers to leave production levels unchanged as oil stockpiles continue to rise, driving prices lower.

You may remember the big beer merger of late between Busch and Miller. Today, the CEO (Carlos Brito) of Anheuser-Busch InBev, told Senate lawmakers the proposed transaction between his firm and SABMiller, the world’s two largest brewing giants, wouldn’t stifle competition in the U.S. beer market. However, the planned $107 billion merger between the owners of got its first public scrutiny today with debate over whether the deal would freeze out local U.S. brands like Dogfish Head, Castle Danger and Rogue. Seeking to dismiss fears of unfair competition, Brito said regional craft beers accounted for less than 4% of the U.S. market in 1997, and have an 11% share now.

And in Mexican fast food news, it wasn’t a great day for Chipotle (CMG). Shares of the burrito chain, which had been one of the hottest stocks going since late 2012, has apparently turned into an investment hazard. They dropped 2.3% to $539.13, which places them at 29% lower from their high point over the past year.

Again, 9 of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight headed south while one bucked the trend and closed up. Today, it was Healthcare (XLV), which managed to eke out a gain of +0.22%. Leading to the downside were the financials (IYF) with a loss of -1.12%.

Sleigh Rides Are Never Smooth

Ulli Monday, 7 December 2015, 3:55 PM Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

While December is usually a favorable month for publicly traded stocks, it is never an easy “sleigh ride” through the New Year. Snow has its soft and hard patches, but it’s allegedly all worth the ride as they say.

The stock market took a stiff hit Monday as oil prices tumbled to a seven-year low, sparking a sell-off in energy stocks that mostly wiped out a chunk of Friday’s big rally that saw the Dow jump 370 points on a strong November jobs report.

Oil prices plunged nearly 6% today after OPEC decided last week not to constrain production, despite an oversupplied global market and reports that showed rising crude stockpiles in the U.S. Domestically, the Benchmark U.S. crude index dropped $2.32, or 5.8%, to $37.65 a barrel, which was the first close below $38 a barrel since early 2009.

In the M&A space, we heard today that Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR), which manufactures coffee-makers and instant flavor pods, has agreed to be purchased for $13.9 billion by an investment group led by private-equity firm JAB Holding Co. The deal marks nearly a 78% premium over Friday’s closing price for Keurig shares. The stock rose 72% to close Monday at $88.89.

All eyes remain fixed on the Fed’s meeting later this month regarding a potential interest rate hike. But let’s not let that damper the holiday spirit. Holiday shoppers are out across the nation, but it’s uncertain whether we’ll get enough positive numbers on holiday sales come early January.

9 of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight reversed and headed south as oil pulled the indexes off their lofty levels reached last Friday. Bucking the trend was Consumer Staples (XLP) with +0.28%; the downside leader was the Mid-Cap Value (IWS), which gave back -1.27%.

ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 12/4/2015

Ulli Monday, 7 December 2015, 6:23 AM ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 381 ETFs, of which currently 110 (last week 120) are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher. Volume figures can change in a hurry, so be sure to check first before investing.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 98 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 18 ETFs (last week 20) have managed to remain in bullish territory after the recent market volatility.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 293 (last week 330) above the line and 507 below it out of the 800 that I follow.

Take a look: