ETF Tracker Newsletter For August 29, 2025

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ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

WALL STREET PAUSES AFTER RECORD RUN—IS THE RALLY LOSING STEAM?

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The way I see it, today’s market action was a classic case of “buy the rumor, sell the news.” After a week of record highs, Wall Street cooled off, with the major indexes slipping on this last trading day of August.

I believe this pullback reflects a mix of profit-taking and renewed caution around inflation and trade policy.

Surprisingly, despite NVIDIA’s blockbuster earnings—the stock fell over 3% today, weighed down by weaker data center guidance and news that Alibaba is developing its own AI chip. Among the Magnificent Seven, Tesla and Apple lagged, while Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon held up better.

I think the group’s dominance remains intact, with earnings growing 3x faster than the rest of the S&P 500.

On the macro front, the Fed’s independence is under scrutiny. President Trump’s attempt to fire Governor Lisa Cook has triggered legal battles and raised concerns about political interference.

It’s my view that this drama could complicate the Fed’s path forward, especially with rate cuts still expected in September.

Bond yields were steady, but lower for August, with the 10-year yield, barely budging as traders digested the latest PCE inflation data, which came in at 2.9% year-over-year. That’s the fastest pace since February, and I believe it’s keeping the Fed in a tough spot—cut too soon, and inflation could reignite.

The US dollar stayed about even, but dropped for the month, reflecting global currency shifts and uncertainty around Fed policy. I think traders are waiting for clarity before making bold moves.

Meanwhile, gold and silver rose, both gaining nicely as investors sought safety amid macro and political noise. These moves suggest a cautious bid for hedges, especially with September historically being volatile.

Bitcoin traded around $108k, yet lagged gold for the month, as the technical downtrend remains in place. Sentiment is neutral, and I believe crypto traders are watching macro signals closely before re-entering with conviction.

So, with markets digesting record highs, political drama, and inflation data, I have to ask:

Are we entering a healthy consolidation—or is this the start of a deeper correction as we are heading into the toughest month for US equities?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 08/28/2025

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ETF Data updated through Thursday, August 28, 2025

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +6.69% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our new holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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Small Caps Lead, Gold Ticks Up, Bitcoin Rebounds

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Today’s session reflected a blend of cautious optimism and earnings digestion. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all closed at new record highs for the first time in 2025.

I believe traders spent the day weighing Nvidia’s latest “good but not mind-blowing” earnings and a surprise upward revision to US GDP. Surprisingly, the Russell 2000 outpaced the big indexes, notching a solid gain on renewed interest in small caps.

As for the Fed, odds of a September rate cut remain high—around 88%—and the market seems comfortable with the central bank’s slower, steadier approach. The way I see it, uncertainty about Fed independence is lingering thanks to recent headlines, but it hasn’t provoked much anxiety among stock investors.

Bond yields barely moved, signaling no major change in rate expectations. The dollar fell, reflecting mild risk-on sentiment. Gold pushed towards its record highs, as some investors grabbed a bit more safety, given the recent political drama and steady Fed outlook.

Mag 7 stocks were mixed: Nvidia slid just a bit after earnings, while Broadcom popped over 1% and others like Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, and Tesla showed slight increases, with Meta bucking the trend and dropping. I think this split shows traders are still sorting winners and losers in the AI and tech trade—no clear leadership, but plenty of action.

On the digital side, bitcoin managed to snap back about 1% after recent weakness, suggesting traders are getting more comfortable with risk again.

With August winding down, I believe the market’s resilience is impressive—but with rates, tech, and politics all swirling, my question is: will this bullish streak hold up as we head into September, or is it just a summer fling?

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Stocks Rally As Fed’s Cautious Optimism Sparks Renewed Hope

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Today’s stock market breathed a sigh of relief after a tough week, led by a solid rally sparked by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole last week and Trump’s firing of Fed governor Cook.  

It’s my opinion Powell’s message opened the door to a possible interest-rate cut in September, which really energized investors.

The way I see it, Powell’s acknowledgment of the fragile balance between inflation and a weakening labor market gave traders reason to hope the Fed might ease soon—but he was cautious, stressing the need to wait for incoming data first. That blend of optimism and caution set the tone for today’s gains.

Bond yields eased off a bit today, which helped soothe pressure on stocks—especially the rate-sensitive sectors. Meanwhile, technology and the Mag 7 stocks bounced back with a nice lift after a rough few days earlier this week, showing some renewed faith in growth names.

The dollar took a dive, adding further fuel to risk assets, while gold extended its gains, but is still stuck in its recent sideways groove. Interestingly, Bitcoin jumped, benefiting from the overall risk-on mood among investors.

This rally is a welcome break, but the way I see it, traders are still watching Powell and upcoming data closely.

The big question remains: Is this the start of a sustained rally fueled by rate cuts, or just a short-lived relief rally before volatility returns?

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Wall Street Edges Higher As Fed Drama Unfolds

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Wall Street turned in a steady performance today after a bumpy start to the week. The major indexes ended slightly higher: the S&P 500 gained 0.4%, the Nasdaq rose 0.44%, and the Dow edged up 0.3%.

I believe traders are keeping a close eye on ongoing drama between the White House and the Federal Reserve, especially as President Trump tried to oust Fed Governor Lisa Cook—an action that’s raising real concerns about Fed independence and the path of interest rates.

Bond yields dipped modestly; the 10-year Treasury yield eased to around 4.26% as investors factored in the likelihood of a more accommodative Fed later this year. Surprisingly, news around Fed shakeups didn’t spook the market much, though any hints of political interference are sure to stay on traders’ radar.

As for the “Mag 7” stocks, Nvidia stole the spotlight with another rally ahead of its earnings and AI headlines, while the rest of the big techs were mostly quiet except for bits of action in pharma and chips. The dollar slipped a little against major currencies, helping risk assets.

Gold picked up slightly, nearly touching record highs as the Fed’s independence came into question and global investors shifted defensively. Bitcoin was mostly flat, stuck as traders waited for the next big catalyst to materialize, but macro data had a solid showing.

It’s my view that the market’s managed to hold up well, but the mix of Fed uncertainty, trade talk, and upcoming Nvidia results means we’re still in headline-driven territory.

Will new data or political moves shake up this calm—stay tuned!

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Rate Cut Buzz Fades, Traders Wait For Fresh Catalysts

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

After last week’s big Fed-driven rally, traders started the week on a more cautious note. The major indexes slipped today, with the Dow falling about 0.7%, the S&P 500 down 0.4%, and the Nasdaq in the red by -0.2%.

I believe this minor retreat was mainly due to profit-taking and a bit of hesitation as investors wait for several key economic reports and Nvidia’s highly anticipated earnings coming up.

Surprisingly, the excitement around a potential September rate cut after Powell’s dovish Jackson Hole speech seems to be cooling off for now. Bond yields inched upward as some of that Fed-fueled euphoria faded and traders refocused on issues like tariffs and inflation’s impact on corporate profits. A surging dollar also weighed on risk assets.

For the “Mag 7” tech stocks, Nvidia led the charge today with a nearly 2% gain, while other names like Microsoft, Alphabet, and Tesla posted mixed results, reflecting persistent questions about valuations and the AI boom’s staying power. Financials and materials were laggards, while small caps dipped after Friday’s surge.

Gold continued to drift sideways, holding steady as investors seemed content to wait for clearer signals from the Fed, while bitcoin slipped, lacking any major catalysts to spark a move.

It’s my view that today’s pullback is just a pause after Friday’s celebration. The market is still driven by rate cut hopes and the performance of mega cap tech, but with volatility likely this week as earnings and inflation data roll in.

So, the question is: Will Nvidia’s results, and economic data, reignite the rally, or could we see more sideways action until the Fed’s next move?

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