ETF Tracker Newsletter For September 5, 2025

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ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

JOBS DATA DISAPPOINTS, SENDING STOCKS LOWER AND GOLD TO RECORD HIGHS

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The market looked strong out of the gate, but that early rally quickly fizzled as a much weaker than expected August jobs report reminded everyone just how fragile the economy is feeling right now.

All three major indexes hit fresh record intraday highs before the mood flipped and selling took over, leaving stocks in the red by the close.

The jobs data was a letdown: just 22,000 new jobs last month—way below the 75,000 expected—and the unemployment rate crept up to 4.3%, right in line with forecasts.

Traders now seem all but convinced the Fed will move forward on that long-awaited rate cut at the September 17 meeting, with markets even pricing in a possible half-point move if the economic pressure keeps building.

On the week, the Mag 7 mega-cap stocks outperformed, while the rest of the S&P saw red. The most shorted names managed a wild ride back to the flatline by the end of the week.

Bitcoin had a great run but lost a little steam today, as bond yields fell and the dollar ended almost unchanged after some choppy action. Gold stole the spotlight—surging to new highs over $3,600—while oil prices dumped amid renewed recession talk.

The way I see it, markets are now caught in a tug-of-war: will mounting recession signals outweigh the boost from expected rate cuts, or can the Fed thread this needle and keep equities afloat longer term?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 09/04/2025

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ETF Data updated through Thursday, September 4, 2025

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +6.34% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our new holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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Tech And Small Caps Lead Market Higher—All Eyes On Jobs Report

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Wall Street got a confidence boost today, thanks to softer private payroll numbers that put a Fed rate cut squarely back on the table.

The S&P 500 hit another record close, Small Caps outperformed, and the Nasdaq joined the ride higher, even as the Dow lagged. I think traders saw the ADP miss—not terrible, but not strong—as a “just right” signal: weak enough to keep the Fed dovish, but not so bad as to spook anyone about a recession.

The way I see it, there’s a Goldilocks vibe in the air. With jobless claims up a bit and the odds of a September rate cut now near 98%, market focus has already shifted to Friday’s big jobs report.

On the Washington front, tariff headlines are swirling again as President Trump asked the Supreme Court to reverse lower court rulings against his tariffs, adding a touch more uncertainty to the mix.

Bond yields eased back as a result, and the dollar bounced after yesterday’s slide.

Surprisingly, gold took a breather—ending a winning streak and closing in the red for the first time in eight sessions—while bitcoin dropped but managed to find some buyers around the $110k mark.

As for the Mag 7 stocks, they mostly rode the bullish wave, helping lift the overall tech sector even as the rest of the market looked for direction.

I believe the key now is whether tomorrow’s jobs data can keep this “good news is good, but not too good” recipe intact.

Will a Goldilocks jobs number keep risk assets rolling, or are we setting up for some fresh volatility?

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Google And Apple Surge After Antitrust Win; Gold Hits Record

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq kicked off the day on a high note, thanks to a big legal win for Alphabet.

A federal judge ruled that Google can keep its Chrome browser and isn’t forced to sell off major assets, which had investors breathing a sigh of relief.

Shares of Alphabet soared nearly 7%, while Apple jumped about 3%—the decision lets Google keep paying Apple to make its search engine the default on iPhones, and both tech giants loved that.

This ruling avoided the “worst-case scenario” for big tech and even acknowledged that new advances in AI may be shaking up the search market, which helps explain why the court wasn’t up for breaking up Google right now.

That burst of optimism powered the Mag 7 stocks ahead by 1.6%, even as the rest of the S&P 500 slipped about 0.5%. Basically, tech did all the heavy lifting while most other sectors struggled for traction.

Away from Silicon Valley, signs of a cooling labor market showed up: For the first time since 2021, there are now more unemployed folks than job openings. That’s not a great look for the economy, and it’s something the Fed—and traders—are watching closely.

With all eyes on tech, bond yields took a breather and drifted down, boosting the odds of a Fed rate cut this month to 95%.

The softer dollar gave another shot in the arm to gold and silver—gold jumped to a record high above $3,575 and silver topped $41 for the first time since 2011. Even bitcoin edged higher, holding steady around $112k.

So, after today’s fireworks in tech and a growing sense that the Fed might act soon, the big question is: Can the Mag 7 keep carrying the market higher, or will those cracks in the labor market start to take center stage?

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Tough Start For Stocks, But Gold And Silver Shine

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks got off to a rough start this morning and just never caught a break, kicking off what’s usually a tricky month for the market.

The major indexes finished solidly in the red, as traders grappled with fresh tariff drama and rising bond yields that sent Wall Street on edge—the 10-year pushed up to 4.27%, making everyone a bit jumpy.

Pressure ramped up after a federal appeals court ruled most of Trump’s global tariffs illegal, shifting focus to Congress—and prompting talk that the US might have to refund a big chunk of tariff revenue, which isn’t great news for government finances or market sentiment.

Trump wasn’t happy, calling the decision “Highly Partisan,” and said he’ll take it up with the Supreme Court. The combo of legal uncertainty and fiscal worries made it even tougher for stocks to gain traction today.

On a brighter note, the way I see it, things looked much better if you were invested in gold, silver, copper, or bitcoin—all of which rallied hard, as some of us were fortunate enough to have taken shelter outside of equities.

Gold hit a new all-time high, silver jumped 2.7%, copper rallied 1.2%, and bitcoin kept its uptrend alive. Even the dollar got a little bounce, defying recent weakness and hinting that traders were hunting for safer ground.

I believe the next big focus—for both traders and the Fed—is Friday’s jobs report, since it could tip the scales for the mid-month interest rate decision.

Will this bout of market turbulence turn out to be just another brief scare, or is September shaping up to be as tough as history suggests?

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 08/29/2025

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Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (289 vs. 292 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.