[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
- Moving the market
Wall Street ran into a familiar troublemaker today: higher bond yields.
Hotter-than-expected economic data sent Treasury yields surging, with the 10-year climbing above 5.1% and the 2-year approaching 4.9%.
That revived fears that the Fed may not be finished tightening, especially after Governor Michael Barr reinforced the message that further policy adjustments may be needed to bring inflation under control.
Stocks got the message quickly. Utilities, consumer discretionary, and communication services led the retreat, while the broader market headed south pretty much from the opening bell.
Higher yields also lit a fire under the dollar, which pulled the rug out from under metals.
Gold slipped below $4,300, while Bitcoin joined the risk-off parade and dropped toward $84,000. Even crude oil’s advance couldn’t change the mood.
The bottom line: surging yields triggered a classic “sell first, ask questions later” session, and hopes that the approaching midterms might keep the Fed on the sidelines didn’t offer much comfort.
Apparently, Wall Street has rediscovered an old rule: when the bond market starts shouting, everybody else stops talking.
So, is today’s selloff just another shakeout, or are rising yields about to become the market’s biggest headache again?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
Bond yields took off, and that was pretty much all the market needed to hear. The Nasdaq led the way south, metals followed, and today’s selloff offered very few places to hide.
Our TTIs weren’t immune, slipping along with the S&P 500. Just one of those days when diversification meant losing money in several different places.
This is how we closed 09/23/2026:
Domestic TTI: +3.09% above its M/A (prior close +3.80%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +4.31% above its M/A (prior close +4.94%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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