ETF Tracker Newsletter For November 14, 2025

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ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

WALL STREET STUMBLES AFTER FED RATE CUT ODDS PLUNGE

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

U.S. stocks slid again right after the opening bell, capping off a tough couple of days and notching their worst single day drop since early October.

The Dow erased nearly 800 points, undoing Wednesday’s gains and the recent milestone push above 48,000, while the Nasdaq fell more than 2%, putting its impressive seven-week winning streak at risk as technology giants took heavy losses.

Wall Street’s anxiety was stoked by valuation concerns in artificial intelligence stocks (with Oracle in particular rattling investors), plus rising debt levels and massive spending for future AI infrastructure.

On top of this, doubts are mounting about the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December—rate cut odds have plunged from over 95% to just above 51% in recent weeks, leaving traders on edge about the path forward.

The end of the government shutdown was expected to bring clarity, but instead there’s worry some economic data may never be released.

Technical support helped slow the decline, with the S&P 500 and Mag 7 basket bouncing back slightly but still ending the week flat.

Outside equities, gold managed to rebound 2% for the week and break its losing streak, while silver outperformed despite late-week selling.

Bitcoin fell to $94k—its lowest in six months—as outflows from bitcoin ETFs accelerated and the coin separated from its usual correlation with the Nasdaq.

Will next week’s sessions offer more clarity, or is uncertainty going to be the market’s constant companion as we approach year-end?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 11/13/2025

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ETF Data updated through Thursday, November 13, 2025

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +4.93% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our new holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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Tech Tumbles As Markets “Sell The Fact” On Reopening

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Today was the classic “buy the rumor, sell the fact” type of session: markets opened lower and just kept sliding, even as the long-awaited government re-opening failed to inspire the bulls.

Tech and AI names took the brunt of the selling, with the Nasdaq locking in its third straight decline, led down by heavyweights like Nvidia, Broadcom, and Alphabet.

This week’s action shows a clear split—while health care and other value sectors managed to hold up earlier in the week, today everything went south, partly because traders were left flying blind with no new jobs or inflation data following the extended government pause.

The lack of fresh economic reports left everyone guessing about the Fed’s next move and increased anxiety about the rate outlook.

AI favorites in the Mag 7 basket got whacked for a third straight day, while rising bond yields and a sliding dollar couldn’t keep gold shining; even the precious metal dipped, though not nearly as much as stocks, and remains solidly up year-to-date.

Bitcoin lost its $100k handle before bouncing at $107k.

Is this growing caution just a temporary blip, or does it mark a shift to a rougher, more uncertain market as year-end approaches?

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Tech Lags, Dow, And Metals Steal The Show 

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The Dow soared past 48,000 for the first time ever, extending its record-breaking streak and outshining the rest of the market.

Strong rallies in financial heavyweights like Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and American Express powered the index higher, alongside fresh highs for UnitedHealth, IBM, and Nike. Bank shares broadly joined in, contributing to the Dow’s milestone run.

In the tech world, Advanced Micro Devices ran up more than 8% after CEO Lisa Su projected the AI data center market could hit $1 trillion by 2030, further fueling investor excitement.

It’s another day of split personality for stocks: blue chips and consumer names continued to prop up the Dow, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq struggled as traders leaned into sectors with lower valuations.

All eyes are now on Washington, as a final vote on the government funding bill could soon put the shutdown behind us.

The Mag 7 basket of high-profile tech and AI stocks lagged again, underperforming the rest of the S&P 500, even as metals and commodities rose sharply.

Gold jumped over 2% to reclaim $4,200, while silver soared past $53, and Bitcoin lagged further behind the shiny stuff.

Is the shift from tech to blue chips here to stay, or will the Nasdaq and growth stocks stage a comeback once the shutdown cloud lifts?

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Dow Hits Record As S&P Recovers, Tech Lags 

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq stumbled in early trading, weighed down by weak tech performance after the recent surge.

By the close, the S&P 500 clawed back to green, while the Dow powered to a fresh record high.

The Nasdaq wasn’t so lucky, finishing with a moderate loss as big names in artificial intelligence—like Nvidia, CoreWeave, Micron Technology, Oracle, and Palantir Technologies—sold off amid growing worries about peaked valuations.

Pressure increased after SoftBank sold its entire Nvidia stake for $5.8 billion, spooking traders who were already on edge about lofty prices in the sector.

ADP’s latest report added to the cautious mood, revealing private sector job creation has slowed sharply.

On the bright side, the Senate passed a bill to end the shutdown, removing a key risk for markets and helping drive a midday turnaround in some asset classes.

The dollar slipped on weak labor data, gold managed to stay above $4,100 after an early dip, and silver plowed higher above $51. Bitcoin spiked but gave up much of the move before the close.

Does this latest split between tech and blue chips hint at a bigger shift, or will participation broaden to lift all sectors as year-end approaches?

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Metals Surge As Shutdown Hopes Spark Broad Gains

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks powered higher right at the open as news of Senate progress on a deal to end the historic U.S. government shutdown fired up traders and renewed risk-taking across the board.

Leaders of the artificial intelligence bull market, including Nvidia, Broadcom, and Microsoft, were quick to catch a bid after being dinged last week by fears about frothy valuations in the AI space.

Microsoft finally broke out of its longest losing streak since 2011, adding to the tech-fueled rebound as optimism mounted that a funding bill could soon reopen the government and reverse some mass federal layoffs.

Senate approval of a critical procedural measure brought a resolution within reach, with more key votes lined up before the deal can become law.

While market breadth still left something to be desired, the Mag 7 basket once again outperformed the rest of the S&P 500 thanks to strength in AI names.

On the macro front, bond yields finished below their early highs as expectations for a December rate cut slipped, and the dollar continued to unwind its recent surge.

Metals markets stole the show, with gold soaring 2.7% to top $4,100, silver rallying 4.3% and breaking through $50, and copper adding over 3%. Bitcoin rebounded to reach $106,000 after some recent volatility.

Could this government shutdown breakthrough be the catalyst for a more lasting market rally, or will some new curveball knock the bulls off balance next?

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