Nvidia Blew Out Earnings… Then The Market Blew Up Nvidia

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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The morning started like a dream: Nvidia dropped an absolute monster quarter—beat earnings, smashed revenue, and gave guidance that had Jensen basically saying, “Blackwell demand is insane, no bubble here.”

The stock jumped 4% pre-market, the whole AI ecosystem lit up (AMD, Broadcom, Eaton—you name it), and everyone thought the AI bull was officially back in charge.

Then the September jobs report hit: 119K jobs added (better than feared), but the unemployment rate ticked higher.

That flipped the script—December rate-cut odds actually rose mid-session (traders love a little labor-market weakness). Everything looked golden… until it very much wasn’t.

By afternoon it turned into one of the nastiest reversals I’ve seen all year. Nasdaq swung a ridiculous 5% from high to low and never recovered. Mega-caps, retail darlings, pretty much everything got taken out back and spanked.

Nvidia closed down on the day—yes, you read that right—after being up double-digits intraday. Classic “pump it, dump it” move.

Bonds caught a safe-haven bid (yields dipped), bitcoin got crushed below $90K (lowest since April), and the dollar crept higher.

The only quiet winner? Gold—just sat there like a champ and closed basically flat in the middle of all that chaos.

Tomorrow we’ve got the biggest November options expiration ever—$3.1 trillion notional. Translation: seatbelts might still be required.

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From Panic Sell To Last-Hour Buy – Classic 2025 Volatility

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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After four straight down days fueled by AI jitters, the S&P 500 finally flipped green, thanks to a 6% pop in Alphabet and traders piling back into the AI trade.

Nvidia added 3+% ahead of its big earnings drop after the bell today.

Everyone’s hoping the chip king smashes estimates and proves the AI hype is still alive and kicking—because the bar is sky-high and people have been taking profits left and right, worried the whole thing’s gotten too frothy.

The day was pure chaos: we opened with a buying frenzy, then flipped hard on the Fed minutes that showed a super-split FOMC — “many” want to pause in December, many don’t see tariff inflation… basically nobody agrees.

Markets pinballed all session, consolidated near flat, and then the last hour turned into a classic dip-buying party. Nasdaq led, the Mag 7 crushed it, and the majors all squeaked into the green.

Most-shorted stocks gave a quick boost early but handed it all back by the close.

Elsewhere: The dollar ripped higher, bond yields crept up, gold closed slightly green, silver did better, and copper stole the metals show with a clean 1% gain. Bitcoin tried to rally, got smacked, and bounced off $88K.

Now everything rides on Nvidia’s report this afternoon. One monster beat and guidance could calm the nerves and send us flying again… or a whiff and we’re right back in volatility city.

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Gold & Silver Shine While Stocks Whine

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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Stocks got hit again, and this time the culprit was clear: people are suddenly side eyeing those sky-high AI valuations.

Nvidia dropped another 2% (now down 10% this month) ahead of its big earnings on Wednesday, and the rest of the Magnificent 7 felt the heat too—Amazon and Microsoft both bled.

Bitcoin even dipped below $90K for a hot second, which felt like the market flashing a giant “risk-off” sign.

Outside of tech, Home Depot whiffed on earnings and slashed guidance, so that didn’t help the mood.

The three major indexes all closed red, with the S&P 500 now on a four-day losing streak. Small caps held up better than the Nasdaq (short squeeze magic), but everything still finished below their 50-day moving averages.

The December rate-cut odds have plunged from 90%+ a month ago to roughly 50-50 today, so the “Fed put” feels a little shaky. Bond yields were all over the place, and the dollar just kind of floated.

On the bright side, our portfolios still squeaked out a green day thanks to the shiny stuff: Gold bounced hard off the $4,000 level, silver jumped 1.4%, and bitcoin roared back after that brief dip (ETF outflows slowed, so the panic selling eased).

Bottom line? We’re stuck in this weird loop until we get some data that’s decent on growth but tame on inflation—basically the Goldilocks combo that calms stagflation worries and keeps the Fed cutting. Until then, it’s chop, chop, chop.

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Tech Giants Weigh Down Majors As Key Levels Break

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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Stocks bounced around the flat line early in the day as investors braced for pivotal Nvidia earnings and the first jobs report since the government shutdown, but things turned south into the close as negative sentiment took over.

While Alphabet popped 5% on news that Berkshire Hathaway took a stake in the tech giant, it wasn’t enough to turn the tide for the broader market, with major averages breaking through key technical support and closing solidly in the red.

Many on Wall Street took comfort in Alphabet’s strength, viewing it as a vote of confidence in the AI narrative from Berkshire’s stock-picking crew, though Warren Buffett himself likely wasn’t behind the move.

Nvidia drifted lower ahead of its big report, and the rest of the artificial intelligence trade followed suit, as worries about stretched valuations lingered.

Rate cut odds for December slipped again after stronger-than-expected NY Manufacturing data and an uptick in construction spending.

The dollar bounced back, yields eased only slightly, and gold and silver both lost ground, with the yellow metal finding support around $4,000. Bitcoin kept falling, triggering a bearish “death cross” but, as history reminds us, that sometimes marks a bottom.

Will this gloomy tone reverse if Nvidia or the jobs data delivers a positive surprise, or are we in for another choppy ride as the year winds down?

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 11/14/2025

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (278 vs. 274 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For November 14, 2025

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

WALL STREET STUMBLES AFTER FED RATE CUT ODDS PLUNGE

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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U.S. stocks slid again right after the opening bell, capping off a tough couple of days and notching their worst single day drop since early October.

The Dow erased nearly 800 points, undoing Wednesday’s gains and the recent milestone push above 48,000, while the Nasdaq fell more than 2%, putting its impressive seven-week winning streak at risk as technology giants took heavy losses.

Wall Street’s anxiety was stoked by valuation concerns in artificial intelligence stocks (with Oracle in particular rattling investors), plus rising debt levels and massive spending for future AI infrastructure.

On top of this, doubts are mounting about the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December—rate cut odds have plunged from over 95% to just above 51% in recent weeks, leaving traders on edge about the path forward.

The end of the government shutdown was expected to bring clarity, but instead there’s worry some economic data may never be released.

Technical support helped slow the decline, with the S&P 500 and Mag 7 basket bouncing back slightly but still ending the week flat.

Outside equities, gold managed to rebound 2% for the week and break its losing streak, while silver outperformed despite late-week selling.

Bitcoin fell to $94k—its lowest in six months—as outflows from bitcoin ETFs accelerated and the coin separated from its usual correlation with the Nasdaq.

Will next week’s sessions offer more clarity, or is uncertainty going to be the market’s constant companion as we approach year-end?

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