Four In A Row & Broad – Thanksgiving Rally Feels Real

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks just refused to take a day off—fourth straight green session locked in, and we’re heading into Thanksgiving with some serious momentum.

The rally stayed nice and broad (not just the usual suspects), with Oracle jumping up 4%, Nvidia and Microsoft both +1%, and small caps plus Nasdaq leading the charge thanks to a juicy short squeeze.

The S&P 500 just posted its best 4-day run since late April—love that.

November’s little 4% dip now feels like ancient history (way shallower than the usual 10% correction), and dip-buyers are clearly still out in force.

Markets are pricing an 82%+ chance of a December rate cut, and Treasury Secretary Bessent just dropped that Trump might name the next Fed chair before Christmas—rumors point to Kevin Hassett, who’s seen as very dovish (aka lower rates, higher inflation… music to stock bulls’ ears).

Bond yields chilled, the dollar slipped, bitcoin blasted back above $90K, gold closed north of $4,150, and silver was the superstar with a nearly 4% pop past $53.

Bottom line: the market is screaming “give us that rate cut” and everything’s lining up for the classic year-end melt-up we’ve all been hoping for.

Wishing you all a fantastic Thanksgiving filled with family, food, and zero market drama! I’ll be back Monday with fresh commentary.

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Ugly Data = Pretty Rally – Breadth Finally Shows Up

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The day started wobbly—Nasdaq was down early after a report that Meta might drop billions on Google’s custom AI chips instead of Nvidia’s (Nvidia promptly got smacked -5%, Alphabet +1%, classic zero-sum AI drama).

But the afternoon turned into a full-on comeback: everything flipped green, and we closed with solid gains across the board.

The bounce was legit broad this time—Mag 7 lagged while the other 493 S&P names and small caps stole the show (short squeeze helped there too).

Macro data was straight-up ugly—weak ADP jobs, trash retail sales, cooling housing, lousy consumer confidence—but in this market, “bad news = good news” because it cranks December rate-cut odds even higher (now north of 80% after John Williams’ dovish comments Friday).

That sent the 10-year yield below 4%, the dollar lower, and gave stocks the perfect excuse to rally.

Bitcoin slipped a bit, gold teased $4,160 then chilled—funny how gold feels rock-solid on liquidity while BTC’s acting like the nervous cousin right now.

With ugly data juicing rate-cut hopes and breadth finally showing up, could this be the spark for a legit year-end melt-up, or does the “sell the news” vibe still feel stronger?

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Mega-Caps & Metals Crush It – November Tries To Salvage Its Reputation

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The markets came in determined to bounce into Thanksgiving week, and the bulls actually delivered.

We opened strong and never really looked back—nice, steady grind higher all day. Alphabet was the star of the show, jumping 5% after Google dropped word of “Gemini 3” last week (their latest “we’re still in the AI race” flex).

That lit a fire under the whole mega-cap crew, and they dramatically outran the other 493 names in the S&P 500 by a mile.

The major indexes are trying to claw back some dignity after a rough November—S&P down 2%+ so far this month, Nasdaq off over 4%, Dow also bleeding.

But Friday’s rebound, sharply rising December rate-cut odds and a juicy short squeeze gave us the fuel to stay green today.

Bond yields slipped, the dollar just chilled, and the precious metals went nuts: gold surged 1.5%+ back above $4,100, silver ripped 2.9% past $51. Even bitcoin shook off the morning wobble, climbed over the weekend, and settled around $88K.

Volumes will get thin fast this week with everyone heading into turkey-coma mode, and there’s not much on the calendar until the Fed meeting in December… so expect some random air pockets.

Still, for now the vibe feels a lot better than it did a week ago.

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 11/21/2025

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (274 vs. 271 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For November 21, 2025

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

FROM BLEEDING RED TO FRIDAY GREEN – FED DOVES SAVE THE DAY

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Early on, things looked ugly—S&P and Nasdaq were still bleeding from Thursday’s epic Nvidia pump-and-dump, and the AI-valuation hangover was real.

Then Fed Governor John Williams (and a few other dove-ish voices) stepped up with some “we’re still cutting” vibes. Boom—December cut odds shot from 39% to over 70% in hours, and that was the spark the bulls needed.

Mid-session the mood flipped, buyers piled in, and we clawed our way from red to a solid green close. Nice little chunk of Thursday’s losses erased in one swoop.

Still, let’s keep it real: mega-cap tech just wrapped its third straight losing week, the most-shorted stocks bounced Friday but are still deep in the red for the week, and bitcoin got absolutely wrecked again—dipping to levels we haven’t seen since April before limping back toward $85K.

Liquidity’s tight, leveraged players are getting margin-called left and right, and it shows.

The quiet hero? Gold. Never flinched, closed the week comfortably above $4,000 after kissing $4,100 intraday. Right now, physical gold is straight-up embarrassing its digital cousin.

Bottom line: one good day doesn’t erase the bruises, but dovish Fed chatter gave the market exactly the lifeline it wanted.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 11/20/2025

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF Data updated through Thursday, November 20, 2025

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +1.54% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our new holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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