Snapping The Winning Streak

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
  1. Moving the Markets

The Dow’s seven-day win streak came to an end today, as technology and industrials took the brunt of the sell-off, the negative effects of which were greatly reduced thanks to the afternoon rebound. However, worries about a possible delay in the implementation of the corporate tax cut plan by one year proved to be too bearish of an influence for the indexes to conquer the unchanged line. In the end, equities had their worst session in two weeks.

The ETFs space was not immune from today’s pullback, as green numbers were noticeably absent. To no surprise, the biggest gainer of the year, Semiconductors (SMH), led the downside leaders with -1.95% followed by Aerospace & Defense (ITA) with -1.48%. Holding up best were Financials (XLF) with -0.34%.

Bond yields rose with the 10-year adding 1 basis point to end at 2.33%. However, the carnage in High Yield debt continued with HYG gapping down and losing another -0.49%. It’s now honing in on breaking its 200-day M/A, which could be an early indicator that higher interest rates may be on their way. The US dollar (UUP) followed suit (-0.41%) and tumbled to its lowest point since late October.

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Carving Out New Highs

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
  1. Moving the Markets

It appears that we’re back to normal—the new normal that is. I am talking about the pattern we’ve come to know very well this year. Namely, a weak opening followed by a mid-day bounce and a strong finish accompanied by new all-time highs. That’s exactly what we got, as the major indexes scored simultaneous records on the same day for the 27th time this year.

Hope prevailed that market fundamentals are justified (they’re not), the economy is expanding (very questionable if you look at record retail store closings) and that Trump will deliver on his tax cuts (no assurances). However, none of these concerns matter as long as there is hope, the markets will take that as a positive. However, just in case that wasn’t enough, the VIX was crushed below 10 again to ensure a green closing.

In ETF space, we saw mainly green numbers. Leading the pack was Emerging Markets (SCHE) with +0.51% joined by International SmallCaps (SCHC) and International Equities (SCHF) with gains of +0.36% and +0.35% respectively. Financials (XLF) headed south by giving back -0.49% along with Transportations (IYT) losing -0.39%.

Interest rates were unchanged but High Yield bonds (HYG) continued to slump by not only losing another -0.44% but also hovering now below their 50-day M/A. We’ll have to wait and see if this is just an outlier or a precursor of things to come in regards to higher rates.

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Dow Ekes Out A Record; S&P And Nasdaq Slip

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
  1. Moving the Markets

Weighing on the major indexes was a sell-off in predominantly three sectors, which kept a lid on the usual afternoon ramp. Retail (XRT), Financials (XLF) and SmallCaps (SCHA) combined their poor performances of -2.35%, -1.38% and -1.10% respectively to keep any upward momentum from gaining speed—and they succeeded with only the Dow eking out a tiny gain to again sneak into record territory.

Again, tax talk was on the table, and anxiety prevailed as to whether, how and when some policy might be enacted. For sure, equities will be vulnerable should a tax bill have trouble passing. Given how far stocks have risen on account of a potential major tax reform, today’s retreat is hardly worth mentioning.

In ETF space, green numbers were hard to find with the Dividend ETF (SCHD) being the exception with a gain of +0.25%. All of our other holdings slipped led by Financials (XLF) with -1.38% and followed by SmallCaps (SCHA) with -1.10% and Transportations (IYT) with -0.69%.

Interest rates were mixed with the 10-year bond yield remaining unchanged, but the price of the 20-year bond (TLT) rallied +0.42%. High yield bonds (HYG) slipped in price -0.28% and at the same time dropped below their 50-day M/A. High yield bonds can at times be the canary in the coal mine by pointing to the future direction of interest rates, which may give a clue as to where equities might be headed. That’s important because if high yield bonds collapse, interest rates will rise and equities may head south.

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More All-Time Highs

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
  1. Moving the Markets

The weekend news simply did not matter. Saudi Arabia went into crisis mode after 2 of their princes died, one via a helicopter crash and the other one in a firefight to avoid arrest, dozens were taken into custody, assets were frozen and a no-fly zone for private planes was invoked. Domestically, McCain called the new tax deal DOA and—the major indexes rallied to new highs, which marked the 26th time this year that simultaneous records have been set.

At least one asset class reacted as it should, namely gold, which added over 1%. Maybe that’s a reflection that some traders finally reached out for a safe haven asset. Of course, as was to be expected, turmoil on the Middle East always affects crude oil, and today was no exception as the black gold rallied over 3%.

In ETF space, Semiconductors (SMH) kept the bullish momentum going by jumping +1.29% with Emerging Markets (SCHE) having a great showing as well with a gain of +1.05%. On the downside, we saw the Dividend ETF (SCHD) and Transportations (IYT) surrender -0.31% and -0.26% respectively.

Interest rates dropped as the yield on the 10-year bond gave back 2 basis points to end the session at 2.32%. That is only 1 point above its 200-day M/A which, if clearly broken to the downside, could mean lower rates ahead. The US Dollar (UUP) tumbled today by -0.24% erasing its recent gains.

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One Man’s Opinion: The US Government Quietly Added $200+ Billion To The Debt This Month Alone.

Ulli Market Review Contact

By Simon Black

There’s been something happening this month that very few people have noticed.

It’s been lost beneath all the other headline-dominating news, from the Las Vegas shooting to Harvey Weinstein to the Mueller investigation.

But very quietly behind the scenes there’s been an extremely rapid uptick in the US national debt.

In the month of October alone, the US national debt has soared by nearly a quarter of a trillion dollars.

This is pretty astonishing given that October is supposed to be a ‘good’ month for the US Treasury Department. The tax extension deadline means that October is usually quite strong for federal tax receipts.

And it has been– taxpayers have written checks totaling $190 billion to Uncle Sam so far this month.
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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 11/03/2017

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below please find the latest High Volume ETFs Cutline report, which shows how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs are positioned.

This report covers the HV ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 366 High Volume ETFs ETFs, defined as those with an average daily volume of more than $5 million, of which currently 262 (last week 248) are hovering in bullish territory. The yellow line separates those ETFs that are positioned above their trend line (%M/A) from those that have dropped below it.

Take a look:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report            

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.

If you missed the original post about the Cutline approach, you can read it here.