Panic Selling Strikes Wall Street; The Bloodbath Continues

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
  1. Moving the markets

Watching the oil and market destructions in the future’s last night, I had a pretty good idea as to what was in store for today. The Dow plunged 2,000 points, while other indexes were down over 6% with the S&P 500 locked limit down at -5% and tumbling to -7.60% after the regular session ended.

Here are the circuit breaker rules:

  • If the S&P 500 declines 7%, (208 points), trading will pause for 15 min
  • If declines 13%, (386 pts) trading will again pause for 15 mins
  • If falls 20%, (594 pts) the markets would close for the day.

While updated coronavirus news contributed to this plunge, rising fears of an oil war between OPEC and Russia triggered the massive futures sell-off with Brent Crude being down some 30%. To be specific, Russia and Saudi Arabia ended their peaceful negotiations regarding oil production cuts.

As analyst Graham Summers elaborated:

The U.S. shale industry requires oil to be around $60 per barrel or higher. Russia is sensing the U.S. is weak right now and has decided to attempt to bankrupt our shale industry. Saudi Arabia, which has a much lower production cost than Russia is moving to call Russia’s bluff by threatening to flood the world with oil.

All of this resulted in oil prices collapsing 30% over the weekend.

This came as a surprise to the markets, and the bears simply took over. As I have always cautioned, when investing in ETFs, you must be only exposed to those with High Volumes and deploy an exit strategy that gets you out before the masses crowd the exit doors, such as happened today.

Europe stocks got even hit harder than U.S. domestic ones with the Europe Stoxx 600 now down over 22.5% from its highs just 3 weeks ago. This is what happens when bubbles burst, while it clearly confirms that Central Bankers are not omnipotent.

Bond yields got crushed again with the 30-year tumbling to under 1%, while the widely followed 10-year lost 21 basis points to end the session at 0.559%, that is after being down to 0.313% intraday. As a result, the big banks are down 30-40% in the last 3 weeks. Ouch!

Even the big boys, like hedge fund guru Ray Dalio, got caught uttering the wrong words at the wrong time, as this chart by Bloomberg shows.

It’s good to be watching this debacle unfold from the safety of the sidelines.

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 03/06/2020

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below, please find the latest High-Volume ETF Cutline report, which shows how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39-week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs are positioned.

This report covers the HV ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 322 High Volume ETFs, defined as those with an average daily volume of more than $5 million, of which currently 91 (last week 73) are hovering in bullish territory. The yellow line separates those ETFs that are positioned above their trend line (%M/A) from those that have dropped below it.

Take a look:                                                                   

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms. If you missed the original post about the Cutline approach, you can read it here.      

ETF Tracker Newsletter For March 6, 2020

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

STUCK IN BEAR MARKET TERRITORY

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
  1. Moving the markets

Despite a concerted effort to pump the major indexes back up, after sharp declines, the result still produced red closes, but at least some of the losses were reduced. It did not prevent the Dow from having put together its second longest run of Friday losses, namely 7 straight, since the string of 8 Friday losses came to an end in July 2006.

The uncertain environment about the corona virus has been a concern for traders and investors alike, especially when heading in the weekend with long positions. Therefore, Friday’s have become one of the scariest days, because it’s pretty much guaranteed that more bad news can/will affect equities come Monday morning.

Even today’s blockbuster jobs report merely elicited a shoulder shrug, as if to say, “who cares, there are more important concerns.” Nevertheless, 273k jobs were added in February vs. expectations of 175k. In more good news, December’s report was revised upward from 147k to 184k, while the same happened in January: 225k to 273k. These are numbers that under normal conditions would have produced some fireworks in equities—but no such luck today.

This Bloomberg chart summarizes the market action after the Fed’s emergency rate cut showing that equities and bonds/gold went their separate ways. But what about the resurgence of the Fed’s balance sheet, which has been the guiding light for stocks? As this chart points out, despite the Fed’s efforts, it did not work out as planned.

Things are topsy-turvy with the biggest irony being displayed in this chart, which shows that China, the very country in which the coronavirus originated, has had a better stock market performance than the U.S. and Germany. Go figure…

In this debacle, the banks have been hit the hardest, with their Bank Index having come down some 27% from their early January highs. Ouch!

It’s good to be on the sidelines.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 03/05/2020

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF Data updated through Thursday, March 5, 2020

Methodology/Use of this StatSheet:

1. From the universe of over 1,800 ETFs, I have selected only those with a trading volume of over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so that liquidity and a small bid/ask spread are assured.

2. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

Buy or Sell decisions for Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2), are made based on the respective TTI and its position either above or below its long-term M/A (Moving Average). A crossing of the trend line from below accompanied by some staying power above constitutes a “Buy” signal. Conversely, a clear break below the line constitutes a “Sell” signal. Additionally, I use a 7.5% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories to control downside risk.

3. All other investment arenas do not have a TTI and should be traded based on  the position of the individual ETF relative to its own respective trend line (%M/A). That’s why those signals are referred to as a “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF crosses its own trendline to the upside, a “Buy” signal is generated. Since these areas tend to be more volatile, I recommend a wider trailing sell stop of 7.5% -10% depending on your risk tolerance.

If you are unfamiliar with some of the terminology, please see Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.     

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: SELL — since 02/27/2020

Click on chart to enlarge

Our main directional indicator, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart) is now positioned below its long-term trend line (red) by -4.49% after having generated a new Domestic “Sell” signal effective 2/27/20 as posted.

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Down The Rollercoaster We Go; Bond Yields Collapse

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
  1. Moving the markets

If you thought current market behavior is simply nuts with each rally being followed by a collapse, you are correct. Despite a slightly rising tendency, the major trend direction is anything but clear and can change on a dime the next day.

Today was no different, as the economic picture and the effects of the corona virus have clouded the markets by bouncing them around aimlessly like a rubber ball in a trampoline factory.

On a day-to-day basis, the tug-of-war in the markets has been, and will continue to be, headwinds vs. tailwinds with the former coming out ahead on negative virus news, while the latter will gain strength on any global stimulus reports.  

Some of this market action has been referred to as a super-puke with the Dow plunging about 1,000 points and bond yields collapsing to record lows. Demands for more Fed intervention exploded due the continuously worsening conditions in the overnight repo market.

With equities seemingly panicking, another 0.5% rate cut in March is not only expected but also priced in, just to keep things afloat. As a result, the widely watched 10-year bond yield touched new record lows at 0.897% but rallied to close the first time ever below 1% (0.9120%).

Major trend direction is questionable at best, which is why we remain on the sidelines for the time being.

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Shifting In Reverse; A New Rally Emerges

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
  1. Moving the markets

Despite the markets tanking yesterday, after the Fed surprise 0.5% interest rate cut, today we saw another bounce back, which in part may have been contributed by last night’s outcome of the Democratic primary vote.

Or, as one analyst quipped, maybe, just maybe, Biden’s gains mean Trump more likely to win…and that sent stocks higher?

Who knows, it also may have taken traders a day to warm up to the Fed’s surprise cut with today’s rebound more than recouping yesterday’s losses.

The bond market had another wild session with the 10-year yield predominantly trading below the 1% marker, before a late rally pushed the yield up by 4 basis points to close at 1.047%. However, at this point it appears that yields will be heading way below the 1% level.

But, traders are never satisfied when it comes to the level of interest rates, which means the market is now “demanding” almost 2 more rate-cuts, before the end of March, as this chart by Bloomberg shows.

Today’s move has pushed our main directional indicator, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI) back to within striking distance of a new “Buy” signal. Currently, we are only -0.95% away from the crossing of our long-term trend line into bullish territory.

Obviously, such a move would need to be accompanied by some staying power, before I will pull the trigger and ease back into domestic equity ETFs. The International TTI is lagging and about -3.20% away from turning bullish.

Stay tuned.

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