Dollar Drops, Yields Spike – Equity Rout Meets Metals Rally 

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks got absolutely hammered right out of the gate after President Trump cranked up the heat on Greenland again.

In a Truth Social post over the weekend, he threatened escalating tariffs on imports from eight NATO members (starting at 10% on Feb 1 and jumping to 25% by June 1) unless they agree to sell Greenland to the U.S.

He also hit France with a 200% tariff threat on wine and champagne (Macron apparently isn’t joining his “Board of Peace”) and slammed the U.K. over the Chagos Islands handover as a “national security disaster” that makes Greenland even more critical.

European leaders called it “unacceptable,” with France pushing the EU to hit back hard using its Anti-Coercion Instrument.

That geopolitical mess sparked a full-on flight from U.S. assets—Treasury yields spiked, the dollar sold off, and the major indexes dove deep into the red. The Nasdaq led the downside, mega-caps hit their lowest since Thanksgiving, and the Mag 7 massively underperformed the rest of the S&P 493.

The one bright spot?

Our precious metals holdings saved the day big time. Gold surged +3.7% to a new all-time high above $4,750, and the silver ETF added a strong +5.4% around the $94 level. Those moves more than offset the equity losses, leaving our portfolios nicely in the green overall.

Bitcoin didn’t help much and got pushed back down to the $90K area.

On the hopeful side, equities have strong seasonal tailwinds right now—can that provide enough support to stabilize things after today’s meltdown, or is the geopolitical/tariff noise too loud to ignore?

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 01/16/2026

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (265 vs. 276 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For January 16, 2026

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

SILVER OUTSHINES AGAIN, BITCOIN HAS STRONGEST WEEK IN MONTHS

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The major indexes opened lower and stayed soft, as traders digested President Trump’s latest Fed chair comments.

He basically said National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett might stay in his current role as top economic advisor instead of replacing Jerome Powell (whose term ends in May). That shifted prediction markets—former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh jumped ahead as the new frontrunner.

The pullback came after yesterday’s winning session, powered by chip stocks and Taiwan Semiconductor’s blowout Q4 report (35% profit jump). That momentum carried over from the U.S.-Taiwan trade deal announcement, where Taiwanese chip/tech companies committed to at least $250 billion in U.S. production capacity.

The week was a whirlwind: AI optimism resurged, geopolitical noise (Iran unrest, Greenland talks) flared up, tariff chatter continued, Fed independence worries bubbled, and earnings season started choppy.

Small caps soared on a massive ongoing short squeeze, the Dow and S&P dipped a touch, and the Nasdaq lagged. The Mag 7 once again underperformed the other 493 S&P names.

Bond yields rose, the dollar swung wildly but finished the week flat, gold rallied for the fifth week in six (despite today’s dump-and-pump), copper eased, but silver massively outperformed (+11%).

Bitcoin had its best week in three months, surging to a two-month high before settling around $95K.

After all the geopolitical headlines and a soft close like today, it feels like the market’s just taking a well-deserved breather… or could the uncertainty linger a bit longer into the new year?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 01/15/2026

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF Data updated through Thursday, January 15, 2026

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +8.82% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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Small Caps Squeeze, Silver $93.75 High – Metals Still Flexing

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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The major indexes jumped right out of the gate, with banks and tech leading the charge as Wall Street shook off back-to-back losing days.

The real spark came from Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) dropping another monster quarter—profit up 35% year-over-year—which lit a fire under the AI trade and boosted investor confidence.

Chip stocks were on fire: the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) climbed 3%, Nvidia and Micron each added more than 2%, and the whole sector rode the wave.

This happened even after President Trump signed a 25% tariff on certain semiconductors (though chips tied to U.S. tech supply-chain buildout are exempt—so markets mostly shrugged).

Oil prices helped too—Brent and WTI both slid more than 4%, easing inflation worries. Plus, jobless claims for the week ending Jan. 10 came in at 198,000 (better than the 215,000 expected), giving the jobs market another thumbs-up.

Small caps outperformed big time (thanks to another juicy short squeeze), even as bond yields ticked higher. The dollar did its usual pump-and-dump and ended flat.

Metals took a breather after recent fireworks—silver touched a new intraday high of $93.75 early but swung wildly and closed about unchanged. Bitcoin tested $98K overnight before fading back to $96K.

So, what’s the biggest risk for the global economy and markets in 2026? Goldman Sachs points to geopolitics as the top threat… but if history’s any guide, it’ll probably be something nobody saw coming.

With chip stocks roaring back, small caps squeezing shorts, and metals still holding strong despite a breather, this feels like the risk-on momentum is building again for 2026.

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Banks Drag Stocks Lower – Silver +7%, Gold Above $4,600 

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks opened lower for the second straight day, pulling back further from recent record levels as traders chewed on a fresh batch of earnings reports and kept one eye on geopolitical headlines.

Wells Fargo was a big laggard, dropping more than 5% after posting weaker-than-expected Q4 revenue. Bank of America and Citigroup slipped too—even though they beat estimates—because the results weren’t strong enough to keep the market excited near all-time highs.

That added to their pain from Trump’s Friday call for credit card interest rate reform; Wells and BofA are both down roughly 7% for the week, Citigroup more than 6%.

Geopolitical noise didn’t help either: oil rose for a fifth day on worries about supply disruptions from civil unrest in Iran (a key OPEC player) and rising U.S.-Iran tensions. Plus, crunch talks are happening today between the Trump administration and officials from Greenland and Denmark over U.S. control of the territory.

By the close, those pressures kept the major indexes in the red, with the Nasdaq taking the hardest hit, the Dow holding up best, and small caps managing a small green finish.

The real bright spot?

Commodities kept shining. Silver exploded over 7% to punch through $92, gold flirted with all-time highs and closed above $4,600, copper added a solid +1.6%, and Bitcoin finally joined the party, climbing to a two-month high of $97.5K and eyeing $100K.

The commodity sector continues to steal the show almost every day—definitely the place to be right now.

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