Fed Holds Steady – Stocks Flat, Silver & Gold Surge

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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The S&P 500 finally touched 7,000 for the first time intraday—nice milestone! —but the broader rally ran out of steam by the close.

Chip stocks gave us an early boost after some upbeat earnings: Seagate soared more than 17% on strong AI data storage demand, and ASML reported record orders with solid 2026 guidance. That juiced the sector for a while, but the gains mostly faded by the end.

Traders were also watching the dollar after its big drop Tuesday (worst day since last April), though it clawed back a bit today.

The macro picture still looks decent—growth holding up, labor market soft but stable, inflation above the Fed’s target—so there wasn’t much case for an immediate rate cut.

The Fed held steady as expected, and Chair Powell’s comments didn’t drop any big surprises, so markets basically shrugged.

In the end, the major indexes closed near flat, with only the Nasdaq squeaking out a tiny gain. Bond yields were all over the place, rate-cut expectations dipped, but the dollar showed some life.

The real action?

Precious metals crushed it again—gold ETF and silver ETF both surged over 3.8%, gold topped $5,300, and silver chopped around but closed near $115. Bitcoin followed suit and climbed back above $90K.

After the Fed passed on a cut and stocks faded but metals keep holding strong, does this feel like a classic “no news is bad news” reaction… or a healthy reminder that hard assets are still doing the heavy lifting in this environment?

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Fed Week Begins – Stocks Up, Gold & Silver Keep Shining

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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The S&P 500 and Nasdaq jumped early, powered by solid gains in Big Tech, as traders positioned for a packed week of earnings reports and the Fed’s first policy meeting on Wednesday. The Dow, however, stumbled out of the gate and stayed under pressure.

Big Tech names led the charge: Apple climbed nearly 2%, Microsoft added 1.3%, and the whole sector got a boost from anticipation around upcoming results. More than 90 S&P 500 companies report this week, including Meta, Microsoft, and Tesla on Wednesday, and Apple on Thursday.

Health insurers were the big laggards—Humana tanked 18% and CVS Health dropped 10% after CMS proposed only a tiny 0.09% average net increase in Medicare Advantage payments for 2027. That was a gut punch for the sector.

The Fed meeting is the main event ahead—markets are widely expecting rates to stay steady in the 3.5%–3.75% range, but everyone’s hunting for clues on future cuts. Futures still price in about two quarter-point reductions by year-end 2026.

Late in the day, President Trump dropped some off-the-cuff remarks saying the dollar was “doing great” and he didn’t think it had weakened too much. That added a little extra pressure on the currency, helping precious metals push higher.

The S&P 500 tagged a new record high intraday but couldn’t quite break through 7,000 and faded into the close.

Bond yields were mixed, the dollar softened, but gold kept charging—making several runs at$5,100 before finally clearing it for a new high.

Silver was choppier but clawed back to recapture the $110 level late. Bitcoin did its usual dance, ending near $89K after testing higher.

Once again, the precious metals surge turned what could’ve been an average day into a really strong one for our portfolios.

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Stocks Rally, Silver Blasts To $117 – Metals Steal The Show Again

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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The major indexes opened strong and kept the upward momentum rolling all session long, even as traders kept one eye on political headlines and braced for a busy week ahead (big earnings wave + the next Fed meeting).

Over the weekend, President Trump threatened a 100% tariff on Canadian goods if Ottawa strikes a trade deal with China. Canadian PM Mark Carney quickly shot back that they have “no intention” of pursuing one with Beijing.

The situation’s fluid, but most folks aren’t losing sleep over it actually happening—still, the constant tariff saber-rattling is slowly wearing on sentiment.

Washington chatter added to the noise too: growing outrage over federal immigration agents fatally shooting a U.S. citizen in Minnesota (second time this month) has people whispering about another potential government shutdown.

Wall Street’s main focus this week is earnings season kicking into high gear—more than 90 S&P 500 companies report, including Meta and Microsoft on Wednesday and Apple on Thursday. So far, the season’s been solid, with 76% beating expectations.

By the close, bond yields pulled back, the dollar broke down to its lowest since March 2022, and equities stayed in rally mode—except small caps, which lagged.

The Mag 7 found their groove again and outperformed the rest of the S&P 493 for the second day running.

Bitcoin bounced nicely today after some weekend selling, clawing back toward recent levels.

The real fireworks?

Precious metals once again. Silver exploded as high as $117 (+12% intraday) before pulling back to $107, while gold blasted past $5,000 and closed above it (up ~1.4% after the fade), giving our portfolios a nice boost.

Silver’s +65% month-to-date run to fresh records stands in stark contrast to heavy ETF and speculator selling—Bloomberg’s question is spot-on: who’s actually buying this latest leg higher, and how sustainable is it?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 01/22/2026

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF Data updated through Thursday, January 22, 2026

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +8.29% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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Trump Backs Off Europe Tariffs – Stocks Rally, Gold Nears $5k

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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Stocks picked up right where they left off yesterday, riding a wave of relief after President Trump dialed back the heat on Europe.

He announced he’s scrapping the new tariffs on imports from eight NATO nations that were set to kick in Feb. 1.

Instead, he said he and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte have “formed the framework of a future deal” on Greenland—and later told CNBC “We have a concept of a deal.”

That, plus his earlier Davos comment that he won’t take Greenland by force, helped ease geopolitical nerves big time.

The major indexes opened strong, pulled back from mid-session highs, but still closed solidly green. The short squeeze kept rolling, so small caps outperformed again, even though mega-cap tech had a decent bounce and nearly got back to flat for the week.

Bond yields were mixed, the dollar slid (now down YTD), and that weakness gave precious metals another boost.

Gold dipped early but powered higher to top $4,900 for the first time, closing just a whisker away from $5,000.

Silver and platinum stole the show even more—silver jumped 3.5%—as commodities keep breaking out to the upside.

On a personal note, I’ll be out of the office tomorrow but back Monday with fresh market commentary.

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Davos Drama: Trump’s Greenland Flip‑Flop Sends Traders Spinning 

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks bounced higher Wednesday after President Trump assured global leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos that he would not use force to acquire Greenland—a geopolitical worry that had been unsettling markets and pressuring the dollar.

His comments sparked relief across risk assets, helping equities catch a bid and calming some of the week’s tension. 

Trump, addressing U.S. military and financial commitments to NATO, said, “I don’t have to use force. I don’t want to use force. I won’t use force.” The 10-year Treasury yield dipped as safe-haven demand eased, while the dollar index clawed back early losses to finish in the green. 

That said, even as he ruled out military action, Trump kept things interesting by announcing he would “seek immediate negotiations” on buying Greenland—a topic that still appears very much alive.

He also reiterated his push for Congress to implement a nationwide 10% cap on credit card interest rates, a plan facing stiff opposition from lawmakers. 

The constant stream of headlines kept traders on their toes. European lawmakers responded by suspending the EU-U.S. trade deal reached last summer, citing tensions over tariffs tied to the Greenland dispute.

Trump, meanwhile, confirmed new tariff hikes on goods from eight NATO members—starting at 10% on February 1 and rising to 25% by June 1—unless an agreement is reached. 

Markets swung wildly on the news: an early rally gave way to a midday drop before bouncing back late as Trump’s tone softened.

The Mag 7 stocks moved sharply relative to the rest of the S&P 500, while bond yields eased but rate‑cut bets slumped.

Bitcoin spiked wildly, ripping higher on Trump’s wavering tone. Gold set yet another record high before reversing some gains but still finishing higher, while silver finally cooled off with a modest pullback. 

If the first few weeks of 2026 are any guide, it looks like we’re in for a headline‑driven roller coaster—and the key to surviving it may come down to smart diversification and a disciplined exit plan.

The only question is: will markets find their footing soon, or is volatility the new normal?

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