Below, you can evaluate the latest High-Volume ETF Cutline report, which shows how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39-week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs are positioned.
This report covers the HV ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 312 High Volume ETFs, defined as those with an average daily volume of more than $5 million, of which currently 202 (last report: 221) are hovering in bullish territory. The yellow line separates those ETFs that are positioned above their trend line (%M/A) from those that have dropped below it.
In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms. If you missed the original post about the Cutline approach, you can read it here.
After four straight days of losses, stocks finally managed to find some bullish momentum, which pulled the major indexes out of a deep hole. They still ended the week with a loss, but Wall Street’s darling Apple came to the rescue with better-than-expected quarterly earnings.
Even hotter than anticipated jobs numbers, the economy added 253k vs. a hoped for 180k, did not dent bullish sentiment. The much beaten down regional banking index KRE showed signs of life and advanced some 4.7%, with member banks PacWest and Western Alliance also popping.
All that was helped by a note from JP Morgan upgrading these two stocks. Hmm, what changed from yesterday’s thrashing? Ah yes, a giant short squeeze bailed out Wall Street and the banks, the latter of which are still down hard for the week.
The rebound was happening with full force, despite Bullard’s hawkish comments:
The aggressive policy we pursued in the last 15 months has stemmed the rise in inflation, but it is not so clear we are on a path to 2%.
I am willing to assess the economic data as it comes in but would need to see “meaningful declines in inflation” to be convinced higher rates aren’t necessary.
Again, I think the fallout in the regional banking sector is far from being over, despite today’s comeback, because the liquidity issues that plague all banks, have not been resolved.
For the week, bond yields were mixed, the US Dollar was down for the 7th of the past 9 weeks, while gold and silver both were up with the latter outperforming and the former just ending a tad short of a record weekly closing high, as ZH elaborated.
Leave it up to ZeroHedge to sum up the Fed’s predicament:
For The Fed to fold, the market will have to crash, but the market won’t crash, because everyone knows The Fed will fold and juice stocks back to un-reality…
1. From the universe of over 1,800 ETFs, I have selected only those with a trading volume of over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so that liquidity and a small bid/ask spread are assured.
2. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
Buy or Sell decisions for Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2), are made based on the respective TTI and its position either above or below its long-term M/A (Moving Average). A crossing of the trend line from below accompanied by some staying power above constitutes a “Buy” signal. Conversely, a clear break below the line constitutes a “Sell” signal. Additionally, I use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories to control downside risk.
3. All other investment arenas do not have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of the individual ETF relative to its own respective trend line (%M/A). That’s why those signals are referred to as a “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF crosses its own trendline to the upside, a “Buy” signal is generated. Here too, I recommend trailing sell stop of 12%, or less, depending on your risk tolerance.
If you are unfamiliar with some of the terminology, please see Glossary of Termsand new subscriber information in section 9.
1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY — since 12/01/2022
Click on chart to enlarge
Our main directional indicator, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart) has just slipped below its long-term trend line (red) by -1.00% but remains in “Buy” mode for the time being, until I get more downside confirmation.
Observing the markets daily, sometimes I have to laugh out loud, and at other times I simply have to shake my head in disbelief. The latter occurred yesterday, after Fed head Powell had announced that the banking system was “sound and resilient.”
It was only a few hours later when the next cockroach surfaced, namely PacWest bank, which has been assessing “strategic options,” including a sale. To me, that means that the “sound and resilient” nonsense is simply another failed Fed assessment like “inflation is transitory.”
On that topic, Powell uttered the following:
“We on the committee have a view that inflation is going to come down not so quickly. It will take some time, and in that world, if that forecast is broadly right, it would not be appropriate to cut rates and we won’t cut rates.”
Mixing his hawkish outlook with the constantly worsening banking crisis, you now have the perfect combination of what might give equities a knock-out punch. Today’s sell-off added another notch to the bearish bedpost, as the markets again were unable to stage any meaningful rebound, with the regional banking index KRE taking another hit, as some of its members, like WAL and PACW, were severely clubbed.
The usual short squeeze was conspicuously absent, Bond yields went sideways, with the 2-year closing at its lowest since September 2022, as ZeroHedge elaborated.
The US Dollar went nowhere, but Gold saved the day again by being the “go to” asset class for safe haven seekers.
Apple earnings, due out after the close, could be a game changer tomorrow. Looking at the big picture, however, I am more in tune with the Goldman Sachs trader, who uttered this spot-on remark:
What’s coming in the markets is like when Indiana Jones was running from the boulder.
As expected, the Fed raised their interest rate by 0.25%, but traders were more interested in the accompanying statement, and that’s where the disappointment came in.
The statement was a hawkish pause, which signaled that “some additional policy firming may be appropriate,” as opposed to what traders had hoped for, namely “some additional policy easing may be appropriate.”
For a while, confusion reigned, as Wall Street came to grips with what was said, and how it could be interpreted, with the major indexes chopping up and down (see chart above), before the bears stepped in and took the upper hand.
Former chair Richard Clarida summed up best the tight spot the Fed finds itself in:
The chair will have his work cut out for him because when the chair will say ‘pause,’ the markets may hear ‘done.’ And if he says it again, they may hear ‘rate cuts.’
And that’s exactly how the market has reacted over the past year, in that Powell’s words were ignored in favor of what the markets wanted to hear.
In the meantime, the banking crisis goes on, and it remains to be seen how many of the 4,000 banks will follow the same downward path. You may not think that the 3 banks that failed so far are a big deal, but they are when compared to the events of 2008.
All three had more assets ($549 billion) than all 25 banks ($374 billion) that collapsed in 2008. That is a sobering statistic, and should the domino effect continue, which I believe it will, equities will be severely affected.
The Regional banks took another hit, after Powell announced that the banking system was sound and resilient. Huh? Bond yields tumbled, with the 2-year again losing its 4% level.
The US Dollar tanked and reached 2-week lows, which was a benefit for Gold, as the precious metal solidified its position above the $2k level.
After a flat session yesterday, gravity set in and pulled the major indexes into a deep hole, with the Dow being down over 500 points early on. A slow recovery helped lessen the pain, but in the end, losses exceeded 1% with the S&P 500 faring the worst.
Right after the opening bell, the bears took control of the market direction, supported by a host of issues—and south we went.
Contagion in the regional banking sector returned, as the stability of smaller regional institutions was on traders’ minds. The regional bank index KRE got hammered, as some of its members imitated their best bungee jump—without much bungee.
Even some of the big banks participated in this contest, followed by the majors, as a short squeeze was nowhere in sight to save equities. Bond yields collapsed, with the 10-year dropping 14 basis points to close at 3.43%, thereby pulling rate hike expectations off their lofty levels.
The Fed’s 2-day meeting contributed to this chaotic session, even though it is widely expected that they will increase rates again by 0.25% tomorrow at 11 am. The big question is whether they will give any clues as to a potential pause, or if their resolve to fight inflation outweighs recessionary fears.
Adding to today’s turmoil was the unexpected announcement by the Central Bank of Australia to hike their benchmark rate. Then it was Treasury Secretary Yellen’s turn to add more fuel to the fire, which she did by announcing that the country may hit its debt ceiling much sooner than expected, namely a month from now. Ouch!
The US Dollar dipped, and Gold ripped with the precious metal reclaiming its $2k level and scoring a 3-week high.
Who knows what tomorrow will bring, but I am pleased that on this volatile day, our portfolios managed to eke out a moderate gain. Once the Fed’s decision is published, we could see markets pump or dump some 1.5-2%.
