- Moving the market
Stocks got off to a strong start, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq moving higher as oil prices swung back and forth in response to the latest developments in the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict.
Semiconductor stocks provided additional support, helping lift the broader market early in the session.
Overnight, the U.S. carried out its ninth consecutive day of strikes on Iran.
However, sentiment improved later in the morning after Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei suggested that diplomatic channels remain open. According to him, intermediaries continue to exchange messages with Iran, raising hopes that negotiations could eventually help ease tensions.
Despite the encouraging start, the early rally ultimately ran out of steam. The major indexes steadily gave back their gains, with all three closing modestly in the red as investors continued to grapple with the uncertainty surrounding the rapidly evolving situation in the Middle East.
Elsewhere, oil posted moderate gains, while gold and silver were largely unchanged. Copper and bitcoin managed to buck the market weakness, turning in solid performances despite the decline in equities.
Bond yields moved higher, while the dollar took traders on a roller-coaster ride before ending the day little changed.
Bitcoin was choppy early on but regained its footing, climbing back above $65,500 and holding those gains even as tech stocks faded into the close.
Looking at the bigger picture, it was ultimately a day of treading water. Markets remain caught between geopolitical uncertainty and hopes for a diplomatic resolution, leaving investors hesitant to make any big moves.
Will tomorrow finally bring a clearer direction, or are we in for more of the same back-and-forth trading?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
What began as a promising session gradually lost steam, as the major indexes spent most of the day moving south and ultimately closed lower.
Metals were little changed, but bitcoin bucked the trend, rallying above $65K.
Meanwhile, our TTIs joined the broader risk-off move, with both indicators retreating from their previous levels.
This is how we closed 07/20/2026:
Domestic TTI: +7.25% above its M/A (prior close +7.73%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +5.22% above its M/A (prior close +5.67%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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