ETF Tracker StatSheet
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THE FED JUST GOT MORE DATA… AND MORE REASONS TO STAY TOUGH
[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
- Moving the market
This morning’s jobs report was the story of the day. August payrolls came in at 162,000, far above expectations, reinforcing the view that the labor market remains surprisingly resilient.
That was enough to push bond yields higher and nudge Fed rate hike odds upward ahead of the September meeting.
At first, stocks didn’t like the idea of a more hawkish Fed and sold off. But by the closing bell, the market had largely steadied itself, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finishing little changed on the week.
Energy stocks were the standout winners, helped by record diesel prices that are reigniting concerns about inflation’s second act.
Elsewhere, the dollar took a hit, gold had a rough week, and Bitcoin briefly climbed above $82,000 before the jobs data reminded traders that interest rates still matter.
The bigger takeaway? Talk of stagflation is creeping back into the conversation as higher energy costs collide with signs of slower industrial growth.
Now, all eyes turn to next week’s CPI report. Today’s jobs number grabbed the headlines, but CPI could ultimately decide whether the Fed reaches for another rate hike or keeps its powder dry.
So, was today’s market reaction just a warm-up act before the main event?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
A stronger-than-expected payroll report quickly erased yesterday’s bullish enthusiasm, sending the major indexes into the red by the closing bell.
Risk assets generally followed the market’s lead. Metals lost ground, and even Bitcoin, which usually likes to march to its own drummer, couldn’t escape today’s sour mood.
Our TTIs also gave back a bit of ground, largely tracking the weakness in the broader market.
One day doesn’t make a trend, but today’s reminder was clear: good economic news isn’t always good news for investors.
This is how we closed 09/04/2026:
Domestic TTI: +7.44% above its M/A (prior close +8.36%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +7.12% above its M/A (prior close +7.77%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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