- Moving the market
The Dow kicked things off on a strong note, hitting a fresh intraday all-time high as oil prices ticked higher and traders waited on the Fed’s latest decision.
Oil got a bit of a boost after Trump said a deal with Iran still isn’t finalized, warning the U.S. could “go right back to dropping bombs” if it doesn’t meet expectations. That’s a shift from earlier this week when energy prices slid on news of a potential agreement to end the conflict.
On the geopolitical front, there was some cooling in tensions elsewhere, with Pakistan’s Prime Minister Sharif confirming that military operations have stopped, and a formal signing ceremony set for Friday in Switzerland.
Meanwhile, all eyes were on the Fed. This marked the first decision under new Chair Kevin Warsh, and while markets expected rates to stay put in the 3.5%–3.75% range, there was still plenty of nervous anticipation—especially with political pressure building for rate cuts, even as growth and inflation dynamics remain tricky.
Initially, things looked calm. The Fed did hold rates steady as expected. But then came the shift: the central bank scrapped its forward guidance and dropped its easing bias altogether.
Instead, the message turned clearly hawkish, emphasizing its commitment to price stability. With nine policymakers now leaning toward higher rates and at least one hike this year looking likely, markets didn’t take it well.
That was the turning point. What started as a quiet session quickly unraveled, with stocks sliding across the board and metals following suit.
Short-term bond yields spiked, the dollar surged, and gold took a hit—falling back below $4,250. Bitcoin was just as volatile, popping higher at first before reversing sharply and dropping below $64.5K.
All in all, markets are looking a bit fragile right now. Trading volumes are elevated, but liquidity is thin—and that combination can amplify moves, especially as we head into the quieter summer months.
I am pondering: was this just a knee-jerk reaction, or are markets starting to price in a tougher road ahead?
2, Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
Markets started off pretty quiet, with Wall Street in wait-and-see mode ahead of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first meeting on interest rates.
As expected, rates were left unchanged. However, the tone leaned hawkish, with most policymakers signaling a preference for higher rates.
That shift in sentiment snapped markets out of their calm, sending the major indexes into a negative close.
There was really nowhere to hide. Metals and Bitcoin were both pulled lower, and our TTIs felt the pressure as well, retreating along with the broader market.
This is how we closed 06/17/2026:
Domestic TTI: +6.94% above its M/A (prior close +8.57%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +8.56% above its M/A (prior close +9.50%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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