ETF Tracker StatSheet
You can view the latest version here.
STOCKS CLIMB, GOLD SHINES, AND THE FED GETS BREATHING ROOM
[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
- Moving the market
This morning, the market pulled off one of its favorite tricks: bad economic news turned into good market news.
July’s jobs report was much weaker than expected, with payrolls actually shrinking and prior months revised sharply lower.
While that’s not exactly a cause for celebration on Main Street, Wall Street saw it as a sign the Fed can stay on the sidelines rather than reach for another rate hike.
That shift in expectations sent bond yields lower and helped push stocks higher, with software shares leading the charge.
Precious metals stole the show for the week, though. Gold posted its strongest weekly gain in seven months, silver sprinted ahead with a 10% jump, and even Bitcoin joined the risk-on mood by climbing back above $65,000.
The big debate now is what comes next: does sticky inflation keep yields elevated, or does a cooling economy ultimately pull them lower?
That’s the tug-of-war bond investors are wrestling with today. So, if you had to pick a side right now, would you bet on inflation or slowing growth?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
For a change, the market actually took good news as, well… good news.
The major indexes notched another solid gain as encouraging U.S.-Iran talks boosted sentiment, sending oil prices, rate-hike expectations, and bond yields lower.
The real fireworks, though, were in the metals complex. Gold surged 7.3% and silver jumped 10%, easily stealing the spotlight for the week.
Not to be outdone, our TTIs moved higher as well, staying comfortably in step with the broader equity market.
Not every week lets investors enjoy stocks, bonds, and metals all at once, so we’ll take it.
This is how we closed 08/07/2026:
Domestic TTI: +9.86% above its M/A (prior close +9.60%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +8.67% above its M/A (prior close +8.55%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
———————————————————-
WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?
Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly to get more details.
Contact Ulli