[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
- Moving the market
The market spent most of the day treading water as investors balanced another round of earnings reports against the ever-changing headlines out of the Middle East.
While discussions around reopening the Strait of Hormuz helped keep hopes alive, the details still matter, and the market seems to be growing a bit skeptical of promises before seeing signatures.
By the closing bell, the major indexes finished modestly lower as the recent short-squeeze rally continued to lose steam.
The Mag 7 once again carried more than its share of the load, while rising bond yields gave the dollar a lift.
In the commodities space, oil moved higher on the Strait developments, gold briefly pushed above $4,300 before ending flat, and silver remained the standout performer among the metals.
Bitcoin also knocked on the door of $65,000 several times but, like an eager salesman, couldn’t quite get anyone to answer.
The bigger question remains whether investors can continue looking past geopolitical risks, or if reality eventually catches up with the market. Are traders showing resilience, or simply complacency?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
Despite a few valiant attempts to keep the rally alive, the major indexes ultimately waved the white flag to uncertainty and finished modestly in the red.
The metals complex joined the retreat, and our TTIs weren’t exactly in a fighting mood either, giving back a little ground.
Nothing spectacular, just one of those days when the market decided enthusiasm was overrated and caution was back in style.
This is how we closed 08/06/2026:
Domestic TTI: +9.60% above its M/A (prior close +10.17%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +8.55% above its M/A (prior close +8.83%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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