When commenting on economic issues in my weekly updates and/or daily blog posts, it seems that lately the most frequently used word has been “unexpected;” as in economists had expected a different outcome in regards to economic reports as was reported by the government.
At times, the difference between expectations and actual outcome has been quite stunning confirming my long held belief that forecasting is more or less a hit or miss proposition.
With few exceptions, most economists operate based on the herd mentality meaning that you can be wrong in your call as long as everyone else is wrong too. If you buck the trend with your forecast, you better be right or you may have to look for a new career.
My preference is to listen to successful business people to see what they have to say on the state of the economy and how it affects their company and future plans. While that does not mean they’re always right, it represents more of a reality as opposed to just economic academia.
Hat tip goes to reader Frank for sending in this video featuring an interview with billionaire Steve Wynn. You may not agree with all he has to say, but he shares some interesting viewpoints.