[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
- Moving the market
Today was a reminder that the market is a lot bigger than just the Magnificent 7.
Tech tried to lead early, but the Nasdaq’s rally ran out of steam and drifted back toward unchanged by the close.
Instead, the baton was handed to the broader market, with the Dow taking center stage and the S&P 493 comfortably outperforming its mega-cap tech cousins.
Strong earnings from 3M and Northrop Grumman gave investors something tangible to cheer about, while easing oil prices added a little fuel to the bullish mood.
The AI trade remains under scrutiny after last week’s turbulence, but some of the harder-hit names managed to find their footing as the day progressed.
Elsewhere, bond yields were mixed, rate-hike odds eased slightly, Bitcoin pushed back toward the upper end of its recent range, and the dollar weakened.
Oddly enough, gold couldn’t seem to get the memo and slipped despite the softer greenback.
The bigger story may be that investors are beginning to look beyond the AI narrative and reward companies producing actual earnings today rather than promises of earnings tomorrow.
Is this just a healthy broadening of the rally, or the start of a more meaningful shift in market leadership?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The Nasdaq came out of the gate with some energy, but by the afternoon it looked like it had hit the snooze button, giving back its early gains and settling near flat.
Meanwhile, the broader market carried the torch, with the Dow and Small Caps attracting steady buying and finishing the day on a stronger note.
Metals spent the session mostly wandering sideways, but the TTI space joined the rally. Our domestic TTI, in particular, put on quite a show, surging higher and reminding investors that sometimes the quieter corners of the market end up stealing the spotlight.
This is how we closed 10/20/2026:
Domestic TTI: +4.72% above its M/A (prior close +3.53%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +3.59% above its M/A (prior close +3.17%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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