- Moving the market
The major indexes kicked things off on a mixed note, while oil prices slid as traders weighed the latest developments in Iran negotiations and looked ahead to key inflation data the Fed is watching closely.
Oil was a big story. Brent crude turned lower after mediators in Qatar and Pakistan indicated that U.S. and Iranian officials had agreed on a 60-day roadmap toward a potential deal.
Prices drifted even lower after the Treasury Department gave the green light for Iranian oil sales during that period, pushing crude toward session lows.
In equities, chip stocks had a pretty solid showing. Micron stood out, jumping more than 3% ahead of its earnings report later this week. AMD and Intel joined the move, gaining about 1% and 3%, respectively.
On the flip side, SpaceX didn’t have a great day, dropping 16% and marking its third consecutive decline.
Looking ahead, the big focus is Thursday’s release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—the PCE index. Expectations are that core PCE (excluding food and energy) will tick higher compared to April, which is keeping traders on edge.
That’s especially important after last week’s hawkish Fed meeting, which pulled expectations for a rate hike forward to as soon as October. Right now, the market is extremely sensitive to anything that could hint at when the Fed might actually pull the trigger.
By the close, falling oil prices weren’t enough to keep stocks afloat. Rising bond yields weighed on tech, leaving the S&P 500 and Nasdaq in the red, while the Dow barely managed to finish in positive territory. The Mag 7 notably lagged.
Elsewhere, the dollar edged higher, gold hovered around the $4,200 level, and Bitcoin chopped around—briefly hitting $65.5K before ending slightly higher.
One interesting dynamic: upside surprises in inflation are now lining up with stronger-than-expected economic data.
That complicates things for incoming Fed Chair Warsh, who may soon have to decide whether inflation is truly “transitory” or something more persistent. If it’s the latter, the risk of “catch-up” rate hikes comes into play—a scenario the market would rather avoid.
With inflation data looming and rate expectations shifting, my question is: are markets underestimating how aggressively the Fed may need to act?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The market started off on a strong note, but that optimism didn’t last long. Tech stocks quickly came under pressure, dragging the broader market lower and leaving the Dow as the only index to finish in positive territory.
Metals were essentially flat and didn’t make much of a move. Meanwhile, the “value” sector kept up its momentum, continuing to build on its already solid gains for the year.
Our TTIs hardly moved, reinforcing our current bullish outlook on the market.
This is how we closed 06/22/2026:
Domestic TTI: +6.93% above its M/A (prior close +7.11%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +8.01% above its M/A (prior close +8.07%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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