- Moving the market
Oil prices jumped about 8%, but the broader market didn’t seem too rattled—at least at first. The major indexes hovered near flat in early trading, with Nvidia helping to lift tech after rolling out a new PC chip.
A lot of that tension is tied to escalating headlines out of the Middle East. Iranian state media said negotiations with the U.S. have stalled, and there were even threats to shut down the Strait of Hormuz following Israeli attacks in Lebanon.
At the same time, the situation on the ground kept intensifying, with U.S. forces reportedly intercepting Iranian missiles aimed at bases in Kuwait overnight.
Back in the market, Nvidia gave stocks a bit of a tailwind, climbing more than 3%. That momentum spilled over into PC-related names like Dell and HP, while Intel went the other way, dropping over 4% as competitive pressure showed up again.
By the afternoon, things got a lot choppier. Headlines were flying, bond yields and the dollar moved higher, and talk surfaced that U.S.–Iran negotiations might actually be back on.
Markets reacted in real time, with asset prices swinging and, interestingly, the mega-cap “Mag 7” names fading late in the session to finish roughly in line with the rest of the S&P 500.
In other corners, gold extended its pullback from Friday but managed to hold near the $4,500 level, while Bitcoin slid toward $70K—its lowest point since early April.
All in all, it was another mixed, headline-driven session. Traders stayed nimble, reacting quickly to shifting oil and geopolitical news, and the major indexes still managed to squeeze out a modest gain by the close.
The big question now—how long can the market keep brushing off this kind of uncertainty?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
Even with oil prices jumping and plenty of uncertainty coming out of the Middle East, the market managed to shake it off. Buyers stepped back in, and that was enough to push the major indexes to a modestly positive close.
Precious metals like gold and silver sat this one out, but copper stood out with a solid performance.
As for our TTIs, they split directions today, but neither move was meaningful enough to change our overall outlook.
This is how we closed 06/01/2026:
Domestic TTI: +7.71% above its M/A (prior close +7.52%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +9.84% above its M/A (prior close +9.94%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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