[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
- Moving the market
Stocks got an early boost from a friendly inflation report, with July CPI coming in right on cue and reinforcing the view that the Fed can afford to stay on the sidelines for now.
AI favorites like CoreWeave and Super Micro helped lead the charge, but the broader market’s reaction was surprisingly muted.
What really stood out was the lack of enthusiasm. Cooling inflation and softer growth data should have been prime fuel for the bulls, yet the Magnificent Seven largely sat this one out while the other 493 S&P stocks did most of the heavy lifting.
Bond yields initially fell, then reversed course, and the dollar took investors on a roller-coaster ride before ending near where it started.
Gold, meanwhile, couldn’t care less about the dollar’s gymnastics, quietly climbing above $4,400, while Bitcoin spent the day practicing its zigzags.
With another inflation report arriving tomorrow (PPI), the market seems comfortable for now, but is that confidence justified, or are investors about to get a reminder that the Fed story isn’t finished yet?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
Markets spent most of the day doing a whole lot of nothing, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq wandering back and forth across the flatline before managing to squeeze out modest gains by the close.
The Dow mostly treaded water, apparently content to enjoy the view.
Meanwhile, precious metals quietly kept climbing, proving once again that slow and steady can still get attention.
Our TTIs also tried to build a little momentum. The domestic indicator managed to get some traction, while its international counterpart seemed to be stuck in first gear.
This is how we closed 08/12/2026:
Domestic TTI: +10.36% above its M/A (prior close +10.16%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +8.57% above its M/A (prior close +8.52%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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