- Moving the market
The Nasdaq powered to a fresh record high as stocks got a lift from a pullback in oil prices and another round of strong earnings. Lower energy costs helped ease some inflation worries, giving equities room to push higher.
The ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran remains fragile, with reports of new incidents in the Strait of Hormuz.
Still, Defense Secretary Hegseth struck a reassuring tone, saying the ceasefire “certainly holds” and noting that two U.S. commercial ships, escorted by American destroyers, safely made their way through the strait—clear evidence that shipping lanes remain open.
That follows President Trump’s earlier comments that the U.S. would help “guide” stranded ships through the area.
Earnings once again added fuel to the rally. Pfizer edged higher after beating first‑quarter earnings and revenue expectations and reaffirming its full‑year outlook. Meanwhile, U.S.‑listed shares of Anheuser‑Busch InBev jumped 8% on the back of upbeat quarterly results.
As ZeroHedge pointed out, today’s gains also came with supportive macro and micro backdrops:
First‑quarter earnings growth is running well ahead of already lofty expectations, with analysts continuing to raise forward estimates.
On the macro side, strong exports, better‑than‑expected new home sales, a post‑COVID surge in hiring, and steady services PMIs pushed the U.S. macro surprise index higher—even if hints of stagflation still linger in the background.
Despite the Nasdaq grabbing the headlines, market leadership was broader than it looked. The S&P 493 outperformed the Magnificent Seven, and the value ETF VLUE surged more than 3.5%, underscoring continued rotation beneath the surface.
Bond yields slipped, with the 30‑year falling back below 5%, while the dollar retreated.
Gold bounced off yesterday’s $4,500 level, and Bitcoin extended its winning streak to six straight days, breaking above $81,000 for the first time since late January. ETF inflows into Bitcoin products have surged in recent sessions, adding to the momentum.
That said, a note of caution remains. Four of the last five record closes for the S&P 500 came on days when decliners outnumbered advancers—raising the question: is narrowing market breadth an early warning sign, or just noise in a still‑healthy rally?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
Lower oil prices, strong earnings, and better‑than‑expected macro data gave the major indexes positive momentum right out of the gate.
The move had broad participation, with both the wider market and the metals joining in, while Bitcoin continued to build on its recent recovery.
Our TTIs followed along as well, with both more than making up for yesterday’s pullback — a nice sign that momentum is reasserting itself rather than fading.
This is how we closed 05/05/2026:
Domestic TTI: +5.80% above its M/A (prior close +4.97%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +8.08% above its M/A (prior close +7.11%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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