- Moving the market
Stocks stumbled out of the gate today, dragged down by some of the biggest names in artificial intelligence.
Palantir took a 7% hit—even though it beat Wall Street’s Q3 expectations and offered strong guidance. The catch? Investors weren’t thrilled about the company’s lack of visibility for 2026, which left a sour taste.
Oracle slipped over 1%, trimming its impressive 50% gain this year. AMD, which has more than doubled in 2025, dropped more than 4%. Nvidia and other AI favorites also lost ground, adding to the pressure.
Adding fuel to the fire were some sobering comments from Wall Street heavyweights. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon warned of a possible 10–20% market pullback in the next year or two.
Morgan Stanley’s Ted Pick echoed the sentiment, saying we should be prepared for 10–15% drawdowns—even if they’re not triggered by a major economic shock.
Breadth was weak again, with over 300 stocks in the S&P 500 closing in the red. That’s raising eyebrows about how concentrated gains have been in just a handful of tech names.
And with November historically being a strong month for stocks, today’s across-the-board selloff—stocks, bonds, gold, silver, even bitcoin—makes you wonder if that seasonal strength is about to be tested.
The tech-heavy Mag 7 got hit harder than the broader market, while bond yields dipped and the dollar climbed to its highest level since May. Even alternative assets couldn’t catch a break.
So, with everything flashing red, the big question is: Are we seeing the start of a bigger sentiment shift—or will dip buyers swoop in and stabilize things before the week’s out?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The markets opened in a sea of red this morning, with every major asset class taking a hit—including the precious metals, which are usually the go-to haven when things get rough.
There was nowhere to hide as selling pressure dominated across the board, sending stocks and commodities alike lower.
Even our TTIs weren’t spared by the broad downturn, though they managed to hold up a little better than the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, which both posted sharper losses for the session.
This is how we closed 11/04/2025:
Domestic TTI: +4.07% above its M/A (prior close +4.77%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +9.29% above its M/A (prior close +10.31%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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