- Moving the market
U.S. stocks got off to a solid start, helped by a bounce in chip names after taking a beating earlier in the week—even as tensions between the U.S. and Iran heated up.
Oil spiked early after Trump posted that the U.S. would hit Iran “VERY HARD TONIGHT” and even floated taking control of key oil infrastructure like Kharg Island. That kind of talk had energy markets on edge right out of the gate.
Meanwhile, the chip sector flipped the script. Names like Micron, AMD, and Intel rebounded nicely, and the semiconductor ETF jumped about 3%.
That’s a welcome move after last Friday’s brutal 10% drop, which had traders wondering if the sector’s monster run was finally losing steam.
Adding to the optimism, there’s growing buzz around SpaceX’s debut tomorrow, which could shine a spotlight on continued AI-driven demand.
On the data front, inflation came in mixed. Producer prices rose 1.1% in May—hotter than expected—but core PPI (stripping out food and energy) was a bit cooler than forecasts. So, not exactly a clear signal, but not a dealbreaker either.
Then came the plot twist.
By midday, Trump completely reversed course, saying there would be “no strikes on Iran tonight” and that a deal was basically done.
Just like that, the market snapped out of its sideways grind and shot higher. Oil gave back its earlier gains, dragging energy stocks down, while the broader indexes took off.
Under the hood, the Mag 7 lagged again compared to the rest of the market, while falling bond yields pressured the dollar—giving gold a boost from $4,000 to $4,200. Even Bitcoin joined the party, pushing back above $63,500.
All in all, a headline-driven day with plenty of twists. With the SpaceX IPO on deck tomorrow, will today’s bullish momentum carry through—or was this just another knee-jerk reaction?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
After drifting in positive territory for much of the session, the major indexes—and the broader market—kicked things into gear once Trump dialed back his aggressive rhetoric toward Iran.
That was all traders needed to hear. Dip buyers stepped in, took control, and drove the market to a solidly green finish.
Metals joined the rally in a big way, and our TTIs came along for the ride, posting strong gains.
This is how we closed 06/11/2026:
Domestic TTI: +7.69% above its M/A (prior close +6.03%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +8.05% above its M/A (prior close +6.50%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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