A couple of readers already own or are considering purchases in GNMA funds. Here’s what Bob had to say:
I am not currently in any stock mutual funds. I missed the move up and I think we are close to a top. Of course, I could be wrong.
I also think bond mutual funds could be in for a beating if interest rates go up. Maybe I am wrong about that, too.
My retirement funds are currently with T. Rowe Price. What do you think about their GNMA fund (PRGMX) for someone with my conservative (and negative) outlook?
Dave had this comment:
I am 54 yrs old and am about 7 yrs away from retirement. I currently have a small portion of my retirement investments in two funds (VFIIX and VBMFX) both of which have a large portion of their assets in GNMA govt bonds. I know that GNMA bonds have a gov’t guarantee; however with the current problems with the FHA is there a great deal of risk with these two funds?
Personally, I don’t think much of any of the GSEs (Government Sponsored Enterprises) that have to rely on taxpayer money to operate. Be that as it may, we, unfortunately, have no way to look under the hood to see where the real problems lie and when they might surface.
Since all of the funds mentioned above are interest rate sensitive, they pretty much move in tandem as the chart below shows:
VFIIX held up the best during last year’s debacle and has advanced the most in this year’s economic environment.
My take is that if GNMA runs into trouble, it will be a well-known event that will not come as a surprise. Given that, there should be enough time to exit if you are implementing a trailing sell stop, as you should with all of your investments.
It will help you to identify the end of the trend, no matter what the underlying fundamental reasons, and exit safely before serious damage to your portfolio occurs. Since the masses of investors have no exit strategy, you should have no problems to liquidate when market conditions tell you to do so.
No matter what your outlook on the market, buying an investment and using sell stops is an easy way to limit any damage should your decision prove to be mistimed. There is nothing wrong with taking a small loss, but there is everything wrong with you letting a small loss turn into a big one.
Disclosure: I am not holding any positions in the funds discussed above.
Comments 3
Ulli,
I know you do not normally invest in bond funds unless requested to do so by client. I have 30% of portfolio in bond funds (10% in a GennieMa) and rest in equities and am trying to determine proper exit point of bond funds when interest rates eventually start rising. I am thinking somewhere between a 2-4% drop. What are your thoughts on exit for conservative bond funds?
Thanks,
Bob
I highly recommend VFIIX if you're close to, or in retirement. Or even if you're not.
My father is now in his 70's, and I invested him in VFIIX in August of 2000 in both taxable and non-taxable accounts. I sold the position in January of 2008 and realized an annualized gain of 7.09%. Needless to say this well outperformed the SP 500.
I reinvested him and my mother in VFIIX in May of this year and am currently sitting on a 2% unrealized gain while I closely monitor it via sell stop.
Check it out,
G.H.
Bob,
To me, 2% is way too close. Personally, I would use 5%.
Ulli…