Fed Disappoints—Major Market ETFs Slip And Slide; Punk Economics Video Simplifies Understanding Of Economic Connections

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

Major Market ETFs extended losses for the fourth day, although only slighty, after the latest Federal Reserve minutes showed few members arguing in favor of further assets purchase despite US unemployment rate remaining elevated. As the chart above shows, the QE junkies were disappointed as the markets stumbled.

Despite sinking 118 points earlier, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) pared losses to close only 48.59 points lower, after a Commerce Department report showed US trade deficit narrowed to $48.7 billion in May due to higher exports to China and Europe from $50.1 billion in the prior month.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) remained flat, shaving only 0.027 points after the financial index climbed 0.8 percent following four consecutive down sessions. Energy however, was the day’s biggest percentage gainer among the index’s 10 business sectors.

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7 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 7/10/2012

Ulli Model ETF Portfolios Contact

Some reality eased into the markets as the earning season started with a mixed bag and, of course, the European debt crisis is showing no signs of taking a summer siesta.

The S&P 500 dropped 2.4% since last week’s ETF Model Portfolio report. Our various models held up very well due to the lack of equity exposure which, given the continued global economic slowdown, is a good choice.

Market conditions could become much more volatile now that the widely advertised ESM, designed (but not yet ratified) to dole out the yet to be collected cash to all countries that need it, has been taken under advisement in the German court. The estimated timeline for a decision as to its constitutionality may come not in 2 weeks as hoped for but maybe in 3 months.

Hmmm, that’s a long time given the urgency of some countries to cover their negative cash flows and/or roll over debt that has become due.

In the meantime, here’s the latest model portfolio update:

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US Stocks Slip And Slide On Earnings Concerns, Spanish Debt; VIXY Edges Up, UNG Sinks

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

US stocks tumbled Tuesday with the Dow and the NASDAQ ending lower for the fourth straight day as investors became wary of corporate earnings looking softer than forecasted based on a string of weak results by technology companies.

Stocks opened strong earlier over news that EU finance ministers agreed late Monday to release an initial €30 billion to Spain by the end of July to help the country shore up its stricken banks.

Treasury 10-year yields slipped as refuge appeal of US assets rose amid concerns the European debt-crisis is deepening after Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said British economy may slip further into a double-dip recession if European leaders fail to act fast. Sentiments soured further after a US survey of small business optimism came in softer than anticipated.

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Server Issues

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

My site has been down intermittently throughout the day. It appears that the problem has now been fixed. Sorry for the inconvenience, but technology is simply not perfect.

Ulli…

US Equities Go Nowhere As Jitters Grow Ahead Of Q2 Results; Merkel Seen At Wimbledon

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

US stocks finished lower Monday, extending their losing streak for the third straight day as investors became jittery on worries that profits will fall compared to the first quarter after Corporate America lowered earnings forecast as the second quarter earnings season takes off.

US government debt rallied led by the 30-year bonds as Italy’s 10-year bond yields remained above six percent and Spanish 10-year borrowing costs rose over seven percent, touching the danger zone, which boosted demand for safe-haven assets.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) shed 0.3 percent, off about 207 points in the last three down sessions. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) shed 0.2 percent with natural resources faring the worst and health-care topping the charts among its 10 industry groups.

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ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 7/6/2012

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 398 ETFs, of which currently 235 (last week 249) of them are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 93 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 38 ETFs (last week 37) have managed to remain in bullish territory after the recent market volatility.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 625 (last week 632) above the line and 236 below it out of the 861 that I follow.

Take a look:

1. ETF Master Cutline Report

2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report

3. MF Cutline Report

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.