ETF Tracker StatSheet
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BAD JOBS NEWS, GOOD MARKET NEWS: BULLS TAKE THE WHEEL
[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
- Moving the market
Stocks jumped out of the gate this morning, after a surprisingly weak jobs report sent bond yields lower and raised hopes that the Fed may keep rates unchanged in October.
September payrolls increased by just 29,000, well short of the 84,000 expected, while unemployment ticked up to 4.2%. Ouch.
But in today’s market, bad economic news can quickly become good news for stocks if it keeps the Fed on the sidelines.
The 10-year Treasury yield slipped 2 basis points to 5.216%, while the 2-year recovered from an initial drop to finish roughly flat. Fed-funds futures responded accordingly, putting the odds of no October hike at 86%, up from about 76% yesterday.
Tech led the charge as investors rediscovered their appetite for risk. Nvidia reached an all-time high for the first time since May, while Intel and AMD both gained more than 4%.
One trader even floated the possibility that the long-awaited Santa Claus rally may be getting an early start. October 2 seems a little early to hang the Christmas lights, but Wall Street loves getting ahead of itself.
Elsewhere, the picture was more complicated. Oil initially dropped sharply on reports that European countries were considering releasing strategic fuel reserves, although Brent remained above $100. The dollar surged as European fiscal concerns pressured the euro.
Gold briefly spiked after the payroll report but quickly gave it back, retreating toward the week’s lows with $4,200 looking like resistance for now.
Bitcoin had a strong week as well, breaking through $85,000 and topping $87,000 before reversing sharply this afternoon as real yields moved higher.
What’s interesting is that investors aren’t simply flipping between “risk-on” and “risk-off.”
Money is flowing into equities for AI growth, Treasuries for increasingly attractive 5%-plus yields, and gold for insurance, while investors pull back from high-yield credit and energy.
In other words, this market seems perfectly comfortable having several opinions at the same time.
So, did today mark the beginning of a more durable shift in market sentiment, or was it simply another Friday flirtation with optimism?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
For a change, the major indexes came out of the gate strong.
A weaker-than-expected payroll report took some of the starch out of surging bond yields and raised hopes that the Fed might skip the widely anticipated October rate hike.
Sometimes bad news really is good news on Wall Street.
Metals gave back their early spike, but our TTIs held roughly even after a rougher week.
Not exactly a chest pounding event, but at least they stopped moving in the wrong direction.
This is how we closed 10/02/2026:
Domestic TTI: +2.19% above its M/A (prior close +2.08%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +2.24% above its M/A (prior close +2.27%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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