[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
- Moving the market
Stocks came under pressure early as the bond selloff intensified, sending the 10-year Treasury yield above 5.3% and putting both financials and technology on the defensive.
Rising oil prices added another wrinkle, reviving concerns that inflation could stay stubborn and keep rates higher for longer.
The mood improved after the $39 billion 10-year Treasury auction came in better than expected. Yields backed off their highs and stocks followed, with tech doing most of the heavy lifting as the major indexes clawed their way back from the day’s lows.
Metals never got the memo and remained weak throughout the session, while Bitcoin stumbled early before finding some support around the $83,000 area.
Bottom line, the market’s record-setting run finally encountered a little resistance as higher oil prices and stubbornly high yields reminded investors that interest rates haven’t left the building just yet.
Was today simply a healthy breather, or are the bond vigilantes getting ready for an encore?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
Markets stumbled out of the gate today as bond yields jumped, but buyers gradually worked their way back in after a better-than-expected 10-year Treasury auction took some pressure off rates.
It was enough to pull the major indexes well off their lows, but not enough to get them across the finish line in green.
Metals stayed under pressure, while our TTIs surrendered some of their recent gains. Not exactly a victory, but at least the market stopped digging.
This is how we closed 10/07/2026:
Domestic TTI: +2.62% above its M/A (prior close +3.46%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +2.58% above its M/A (prior close +3.36%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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