ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, August 2, 2013

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ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2013/08/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-08012013/

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Market Commentary

Friday, August 2, 2013

BULLS SHOW UP LATE TO KEEP RALLY ALIVE

U.S. equity markets rebounded off the morning lows to close narrowly in positive territory at record highs, extending yesterday’s rally, while the dollar weakened as traders digested a disappointing July nonfarm payroll report and what that means for future Federal Reserve policy.

Elsewhere, Treasuries rallied in the wake of the tepid data, which included a roughly in line read on personal income and spending, as well as smaller-than-expected rise in factory orders. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 30 points higher (0.2%) at 15,658, the S&P 500 Index gained 3 points (0.1%) to 1,709, and the Nasdaq Composite added 13 points (0.4%) to 3,689. The opening slip took place as investors reacted to a weaker-than-expected July jobs report.

Nonfarm payrolls increased 162,000 in July, below the consensus of 183,000. Additionally, the prior two months were revised down by a total of 26,000 jobs. Moreover, private sector payrolls increased by 161,000 in July, versus the forecasted gain of 195,000, after expanding by an downwardly revised 196,000 in June. However, the unemployment rate fell from June’s 7.6% rate to 7.4%, compared to the expected decline to 7.5%, as the civilian labor force participation rate dipped to 63.4% from 63.5%, and the number of persons employed part time rose for economic reasons.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 08/01/2013

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ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, August 1, 2013

Table of Content082312

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/25/2011

TTI

The Domestic TTI broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the recent past, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. The clear break to the upside occurred on 10/24/11 and, effective 10/25/11, a new Buy signal for domestic equities went into effect.

As of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has bounced off its long term trend line (red) by +3.73% after briefly dipping below it late in June.

To avoid a potential whip-saw, a Sell signal to move out of all domestic equity positions will be generated once we have clearly pierced the line to the downside. Be sure to tune in for the latest updates.

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Cheerful Data Pushes S&P Through The 1,700 Level

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Thur pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

U.S. equity markets shrugged off yesterday’s lackluster performance to close Thursday trading session nicely higher, with the Dow and S&P 500 indices soaring into record high territory in the wake of a stronger-than-forecasted U.S. manufacturing report and better-than-expected sector reports out of China and the Eurozone.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index advanced above 1,700 for the first time, a level the index had struggled with in the past few sessions, and registered a record high close of 1706.87. All 10 S&P 500 sectors in the black, though growth-sensitive financials, industrials and consumer discretionary shares registered the biggest gains.

The financial sector advanced 1.7% as all top components posted gains with American Express leading the way. Elsewhere, industrials received significant support from transportation companies. Transportation stocks soared even as crude oil returned to its mid-July highs. The energy component advanced 2.5% to $107.70 per barrel. While most of today’s action in the equity markets took place during the opening minutes, treasuries and the dollar were a bit more active. Treasuries ended on their lows as heavy selling put significant upward pressure on yields.

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Fed Downgrades US Economy; Stocks End Mixed

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

Wed pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

Domestic equity markets finished the month on a mixed note following a relatively positive statement release by the Federal Reserve affirming no changes to current monetary policy and a stronger-than-expected private sector job report from ADP.

Stocks held slim gains into the afternoon when the latest policy directive from the Federal Open Market Committee sent the Nasdaq and S&P 500 to fresh highs. The two indices were unable to maintain those levels into the close as broad-based weakness pressured the major averages to their lows. The S&P500 Index finished July up 5 percent to mark its best month since January.

The Federal Reserve said that the U.S. economy is growing only modestly, a downgrade from its June assessment. The Fed expects growth will pick up in the second half of the year, but the more cautious message may be a signal that it’s not ready to slow its bond purchases soon. In a statement after a two-day policy meeting, the Fed says it will keep buying $85 billion a month in bonds to help lower long-term interest rates. It also said it plans to hold its key short-term rate at a record low near zero at least as long as the unemployment rate stays above 6.5 percent and the inflation outlook remains mild.

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7 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 7/30/2013

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After repeated attempts by the S&P 500 to conquer its 1,700 milestone marker, the markets meandered since last week’s portfolio report with the benchmark surrendering some 6 points in the process.

It appears that a new driver is needed to push the indexes to the next level. This driver may very well appear later on today depending on the outcome of the Fed’s monetary policy decision. If positive, which translates to no tapering of asset purchases later on this year, we may very well see the 1,700 level conquered after all.

If tapering remains on the agenda, then all bets are off, and we could see a pullback followed by more sideways action as we hit the doldrums of summer during the month of August.

Here’s the latest ETF Model Portfolio update:

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Mixed Earnings—Index ETFs Are Going Nowhere Fast

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Tue pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

U.S. index ETFs finished nearly unchanged, while the Nasdaq was able to post a modest gain as traders again appeared guarded ahead of tomorrow’s monetary policy decision from the Federal Reserve.

A rebound in Japanese equities, along with some favorable global earnings reports, a more than five-year high in German consumer sentiment, and another solid gain in U.S. housing prices provided early support. The S&P 500 added less than 0.1 percent after swinging between gains and losses during the trading session, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.38 points.

Dow member Merck & Co reported 2Q earnings that topped estimates by a penny, as revenues declined 10.6% year-over-year (y/y) to $11.0 billion, below the $11.2 billion that the Street had anticipated. Elsewhere, fellow Dow component Pfizer reported 2Q profits also one cent north of expectations, with revenues decreasing 7% y/y to $13.0 billion, roughly inline with analysts’ forecasts. Meanwhile, Herbalife achieved 2Q EPS well above what analysts were anticipating, as revenues rose 18.1% y/y to $1.2 billion.

Although stocks endured some intraday weakness, the Nasdaq never fell into the red. The relative strength of biotechnology combined with the outperformance of technology helped the index settle in the green.

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