ETF Tracker StatSheet
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MARKETS RECOVER, BUT THE CREDIBILITY TEST ISN’T OVER
[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
- Moving the market
Stocks bounced back this morning, with technology shares leading the way after yesterday’s AI-fueled reality check.
Traders spent much of the day digesting OpenAI’s lower-than-expected revenue trajectory, a reminder that even in the AI boom, expectations can run faster than fundamentals.
The bigger story, though, remains the tug-of-war between growth optimism and higher interest rates.
Ten-year Treasury yields are hovering near levels not seen since 2002, while a steady stream of geopolitical headlines keeps energy markets on edge.
Gold managed a rebound, copper outperformed its metal peers, and Bitcoin clawed its way back toward $83,000 despite ETF outflows.
For me, the takeaway is that markets are becoming increasingly sensitive to credibility, whether it’s AI revenue projections, energy supply stability, or fiscal discipline.
With new lows continuing to outnumber new highs beneath the surface, are investors finally becoming a little more selective about the stories they’re willing to believe?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
A nice comeback rally helped the major indexes finish the week in positive territory.
The metals joined the rebound party too, with copper leading the charge and reminding everyone it’s not just an industrial metal, it’s apparently an optimist.
Our TTIs stayed in step with the broader market and posted solid, moderate gains. All in all, a constructive end to the week, with buyers showing up just in time to avoid any awkward weekend conversations.
This is how we closed 10/09/2026:
Domestic TTI: +3.58% above its M/A (prior close +3.24%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +2.65% above its M/A (prior close +2.56%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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