Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 05/02/2013

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, May 2, 2013

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If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/25/2011

TTI

The domestic TTI broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the recent past, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. The clear break to the upside occurred on 10/24/11 and, effective 10/25/11, a new Buy signal for domestic equities went into effect.

As of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has bounced off its long term trend line (red) by +4.20% as part of the post election rebound.

To avoid a potential whip-saw, a Sell signal to move out of all domestic equity positions will be generated once we have clearly pierced the line to the downside. Be sure to tune into my blog for the latest updates.

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Positive Headlines Help Stocks Surge To New Record

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Thur pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

Equity markets celebrated yet another record date as the European Central Bank (ECB) cut its key interest rate, domestic jobless claims unexpectedly fell to a five year low, and the technology sector reported strong earnings.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 130 points (0.9%) to 14,830, the S&P 500 Index added 15 points (0.9%) to 1,597, sending it to another record high and erasing yesterday’s loss. The Nasdaq Composite gained 42 points (1.3%) to 3,341.

The most welcoming news of the day came from Europe as the ECB cut interest rates for the first time in 10 months and held out the possibility of further action if necessary to boost the euro zone economy. ECB policy makers meeting in Bratislava lowered the main refinancing rate to 0.5 percent from 0.75 percent. The interest rate cut fueled positive sentiment. The move follows Wednesday’s Federal Reserve action to continue its bond buying scheme to keep interest rates low and spur growth.

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Poor Macro Data Knock Down the Bulls

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Wed pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

Disappointing economic data finally dragged stocks down. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 138 points (0.9%) to 14,701, the S&P 500 Index lost 15 points (0.9%) from its record high to 1,583, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased 30 points (0.9%) to 3,299. Volume came in slightly lower than Tuesday. Commodity companies dropped the most among 10 S&P 500 industries as oil and copper tumbled.

The latest economic data continued a trend of indicators pointing to anemic growth. The ISM Manufacturing Index fell 0.6 points in April to 50.7. It was the lowest level this year, as factory activity expanded for the fifth straight month, but at a slower pace as the manufacturing recovery has lost some momentum.

The decline was led by a sharp 4.0-point drop in the employment index, the most since September 2010. The inventory index fell 3.0 points as businesses ran down stocks for the second month in a row. Inventories continue to decline on a 12-month average basis, indicating a negative trend. Construction spending fell 1.7% in March, likely driven by funding cutbacks due to the sequester. The weakness was widespread. Public spending tumbled 4.1%, the most in 11 years, to its lowest level since October 2006. Residential spending slowed sharply to 0.4%. Private nonresidential fell 1.5%.

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7 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 4/30/2013

Ulli Model ETF Portfolios Contact

And the beat goes on. No matter how bad economic news is, it simply does not matter as the feeding frenzy caused by the Fed’s endless printing efforts continues unabated. It has come to the point where only Fed policy is in charge of market direction; nothing else appears to have any effect.

Good thing that we are not involved in the minutiae of analyzing economic fundaments to arrive at investment decisions; we simply follow the trend for as long as it lasts while realizing that, eventually, all good things will come an end, which is the precise moment when our trailing sell stops will take us out of our equity positions.

In the meantime, the S&P 500 managed to gain another 1.14% since last week’s ETF Model Portfolio report, with our model #5 now being close to catching the S&P YTD. Second best performer has been the conservative growth portfolio #2, which sports a nice return given its conservative nature.

Take a look at the latest update:

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More Bad Economic News = More Gains in the Market

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Tue pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

The bulls simply don’t know how or when not quit as stocks ended Tuesday’s session on a modestly higher note in the face of another day of mushy global economic data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average moved up 21 points (or 0.1%) to 14,839, the Nasdaq Composite gained 22 points (0.7%) to 3,329, and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 4 points (0.3%) to 1,598, sending the S&P index to another record. In moderate volume, more than 6.7 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, or 5 percent higher than the three-month average. Techs led the way again with Apple launching $17 billion of bonds in the biggest corporate offering on record.

A decline in regional business activity underlined the growth concerns of the economy. The Chicago Business Barometer dropped 3.4 points in April to 49.0, falling into contraction territory for the first time since September 2009. Economists forecasted a small uptick to 52.8.

Production, supplier deliveries, inventories, and order backlogs indexes were at their lowest levels since 2009. Employment fell for the second time in the past five months. Price pressures eased, as the prices index fell to 51, the lowest level since October 2009, reflecting softer demand. Milwaukee activity contracted for the first time in five months, as the composite index declined 2.6 points to 48.4. New orders, production and employment each shrank but, thanks to the stimulative efforts of the Fed, none of the above matter anymore.

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Markets Hit New Record Though It Was A One-Sided Affair

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Mon pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

Stocks climbed throughout the session today to kick off the week with solid gains despite mixed economic data. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 11 points to 1,594 surpassed its previous record close set earlier this month.

Growth-oriented stocks, including energy and technology, lead the way to the index’s sixth rise in the past seven sessions. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 106 points (0.7%) to 14,819, and the Nasdaq Composite hit a new multiyear high on an intraday basis, ending with a gain of 0.9% to 3,307. Disappointing volume, however, once again revealed a lack of conviction behind the buying. 598 million shares were traded on the NYSE, and 1.5 billion shares changed hands on the Nasdaq.

Pending home sales rose 1.5% in March compared with February and were 7% higher compared with the same time last year, above the consensus forecast of 1.0%. Contract signing activity reached its highest level since April 2010, which was infused by the home-buyer tax credit. Personal income rose 0.2% in March, down from 1.1% in the previous month, and below the consensus of 0.4%. However, it was in line with the 12-month average, indicating stable growth.

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