Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 05/16/2013

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, May 16, 2013

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If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/25/2011

TTI

The domestic TTI broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the recent past, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. The clear break to the upside occurred on 10/24/11 and, effective 10/25/11, a new Buy signal for domestic equities went into effect.

As of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has bounced off its long term trend line (red) by +4.99% as part of the post election rebound.

To avoid a potential whip-saw, a Sell signal to move out of all domestic equity positions will be generated once we have clearly pierced the line to the downside. Be sure to tune into my blog for the latest updates.

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Too Much Bad News To Handle

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Thur pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

After trading in a narrow range through out the day, US index ETFs finished lower as investors turned negative following lackluster economic data and mixed earnings reports. Today snapped a string of record-high closes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) depreciated 42 points (0.3%) to 15,233, the S&P 500 Index was 8 points (0.5%) lower at 1,650, and the Nasdaq Composite fell by 6 points (0.2%) to 3,465. Wal-Mart lost 2.2 percent after the world’s largest retailer forecast second-quarter profit that was less than analysts estimated as the slow U.S. economy and higher taxes put pressure on consumers.

In a day full of economic news, initial claims for unemployment insurance jumped 32,000 last week, the most since November 2012, to 360,000, and above the consensus of 330,000. The Labor Department said that these figures were not impacted significantly by sequester-related furlough or other special factors. The four-week average of claims increased 1,250 to 339,250, but is still near its lowest level since January 2008, as the downward trend in firings remains intact.

Housing starts dropped 16.5% in April to 853,000 units at an annual rate, below the consensus of a 6.4% decline to 970,000 units. On the other hand, building permits, a sign of future construction activity, surged 14.3%, the second most on record, to a 1.017 million unit annual rate. The rate was above a million for the first time since June 2008. Economists expected a smaller 2.5% gain to 930,000 units. On a y/y basis both starts and permits continue to post double-digit gains.

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Defying Negative Data

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Wed pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

Despite disappointing US industrial production and regional manufacturing reports, the major domestic equity markets were able to continue their recent rally and finish the trading session higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 60 points (0.4%) to 15,276, the S&P 500 Index was 8 points (0.5%) higher at 1,659, setting another record in nine of the past 10 sessions, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 9 points (0.3%) to 3,472.

Stocks opened in the red as domestic and foreign economic data reminded investors of a cloudy growth picture. However, defensive sectors quickly overshadowed the early losses, and helped the broader market erase its early weakness.

Consumer staples and utilities outperformed as the two sectors settled with respective gains of 1.0% and 0.8%. The health care space lagged behind its defensively-geared counterparts as biotechnology became the subject of some profit taking following its recent run. Most other cyclical groups were somewhat shaky as the energy sector spent the day in negative territory. Crude oil was down as much as 2.0% before recovering those losses to end little changed at $94.30.

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7 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 5/14/2013

Ulli Model ETF Portfolios Contact

And the beat goes on. After a slight breather on Monday, the major market ETFs took off again yesterday and set some new highs in the process. The S&P 500 gained +1.48% since last week’s ETF Model Portfolio report.

Needless to say, it’s been equities all the way this year with bonds getting pushed aside while precious metals have been spanked, which is reflected in the lack of performance of funds like PRPFX and its ETF equivalent.

As I have posted before, star performers so far this year have been the low volatility ETFs, such as XLP and SPLV, which we own in my advisor practice. I simply like their lower beta which, at least in theory, will reduce the speed with which things will go down but, in this manipulated market environment, you can’t be 100% sure. When this bubble bursts, as it eventually will, we will rely on our sell stops and/or trend line breaks to get us safely to the sidelines.

Here’s the latest update:

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After A Breather, Bulls Hit Fresh All-Time Highs

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Tue pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

Equities got back to their winning ways, notching solid gains amid optimism that the bulls still have room to run. The Nasdaq hit its highest level since November 2000 while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Standard & Poor’s 500 Index hit fresh all-time highs. The Dow Jones jumped 124 points (0.8%) to 15,215, the S&P 500 Index was 17 points (1.0%) higher at 1,650, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 24 points (0.7%) to 3,463.

Stocks were off to the races as financials paved the way higher when hedge-fund manager David Tepper called U.S. banks “a good sector.” Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc. rose more than 2.4 percent while Goldman Sachs was the top performer with 4.89% gain. The financial sector advanced 1.7%.

Three growth-sensitive sectors also finished among the leaders despite the relative weakness across the commodity complex. Crude oil fell 1.0% to $94.20, but the energy sector rose 1.3%. Elsewhere, copper declined 2.1% to $3.289 per pound while gold shed 0.8% to $1423.70 per ounce. The basic materials sector, however, climbed 1.2%. Industrials also ended in the black as transportation-related names led the way. The Dow Jones Transportation Average jumped 1.9% to a new record high. The technology sector did not play along with other cyclical groups. Tech shares lagged throughout the day while the relative strength of biotechnology kept the Nasdag from falling too far behind the Dow and S&P.

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Bulls Take a Break in Quiet Session

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

TTI

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

Index ETFs kicked off the week with an orderly session, ended flat on Monday and pausing after hitting record highs last week. The market was once again unfazed by a strengthening U.S. dollar. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 27 points (0.2%) to 15,092, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was unchanged at 1,634, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 2 points (0.1%) to 3,439.

The U.S. Dollar Index rallied for the third straight session and was trading around 83.24, up 0.1%. Part of the greenback’s recent strength is due to reports that the Fed is mapping out plans to wind down its $85 billion a month in asset purchases.

The strength in healthcare stocks helped to keep declines in check. The S&P 500 healthcare sector climbed 0.7 percent and was the best performer. Biotech names provided support for the health care space, which led throughout the day. Meanwhile, other defensively-oriented groups were mixed. The staples sector registered a slim gain while utilities and telecom ended with modest losses. The utilities sector shed 0.6% to extend its recent weakness. While defensive groups saw mixed results, cyclical sectors ended generally lower with financials being the exception.

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