Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 10/24/2013

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, October 24, 2013

Table of Content082312

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/25/2011

TTI

Our main directional indicator, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI) broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the recent past, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. The clear break to the upside occurred on 10/24/11 and, effective 10/25/11, a new Buy signal for domestic equities went into effect.

As of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has bounced off its long term trend line (red) by +5.11% after briefly dipping below it late in June 2013.

To avoid a potential whip-saw, a Sell signal to move out of all domestic equity positions will be generated once we have clearly pierced the line to the downside. Be sure to tune in for the latest updates.

Read More

Index ETFs Back On Track As Fears Of Tapering Recede

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Thur pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

Domestic equity ETFs closed the trading session nicely higher, putting the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index three points from a record, in the wake of a stronger-than-forecasted read on Chinese manufacturing activity and as another plethora of earnings reports flooded the Street.

Treasuries were slightly lower following a report that showed initial weekly jobless claims came in above expectations, while the domestic trade deficit came in narrower than anticipated. In other economic news, a preliminary read on October manufacturing activity came in below expectations, while regional manufacturing growth surprisingly accelerated. Elsewhere, the U.S. dollar was nearly unchanged, while gold and crude oil prices were higher.

On the equity front, Ford Motor posted better-than-expected profits and upbeat guidance, while Dow members AT&T and 3M reported earnings that were slightly above analysts’ forecasts. Moreover, Dow Chemical missed forecasts and Symantec Corp reported disappointing revenues and guidance. Outside of some choppy action during the first hour, equity indices climbed steadily throughout the session.

Read More

China And CAT Take Down Bulls

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Wed pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

Following four-straight sessions of record highs for the S&P 500, domestic equities finished the session in negative territory on Wednesday as shares of heavy-equipment maker Caterpillar and semiconductor companies tumbled after they reported earnings.

Moreover, Chinese liquidity and banking concerns along with uncertain domestic earnings reports weighed on sentiment. Meanwhile, Treasuries were mixed following reports that showed U.S. import prices rose and mortgage applications dipped. Finally, gold and crude oil prices dipped, while the U.S. dollar was nearly unchanged.

Reports out of the Middle Kingdom suggested the largest Chinese banks saw their debt write-offs triple during the first half of the year. Separate headlines indicated the People’s Bank of China may tighten monetary policy due to excessive inflation. The liquidity crunch has made its presence known through the overnight Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate, which jumped 73 basis points to 3.78%. In addition to the news from China, stocks had to endure continued weakness among momentum names.

Read More

7 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 10/22/2013

Ulli Model ETF Portfolios Contact

Upward momentum shifted into overdrive based on the mere fact that the U.S. government is no longer shut down. Never mind that none of the real issues were resolved—the proverbial can has been merely kicked down the road again.

It did not matter to the markets, which simply took off with the S&P 500 gaining some 3.4% since last week’s ETF Model Portfolio report was issued.

We’re back to the same theme we’ve had all year in that mediocre news, like yesterday’s non-farm payroll report, are a good thing as it simply means that the overhanging “taper” may be postponed once again confirming that the economy is unable to organically grow on its own.

Be that as it may, there is a price to be paid at some point when market participants realize that this rally is supported by nothing than hot air. When the eventual turnaround occurs, it pays to be prepared via an exit strategy such as our sell stop discipline.

In the meantime, here’s the latest ETF Model Portfolio update:

Read More

Ignoring Weakness In Jobs Data

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Tue pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

U.S. equities finished higher, despite a softer-than-forecasted U.S. September nonfarm payroll report. The data may have solidified expectations that the Federal Reserve may hold off on tapering its asset purchases until signs of a healthy economy become more lucid.

Speculation pushed the annual advance in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index within a percentage point of the best yearly gain in a decade. Treasuries finished solidly higher following the jobs report, overshadowing positive reads on construction spending and manufacturing activity in the Mid-Atlantic region. Gold was higher, while crude oil prices and the U.S. dollar lost ground.

Earnings reports continue to come in earnest, with mostly positive results. Netflix beat earnings expectations, as did Texas Instruments, but the chipmaker’s shares suffered after it issued disappointing 4Q guidance. Moreover, Dow member Travelers Companies bested the Street’s projections and authorized a $5 billion stock buyback plan, and Dow member DuPont reported upbeat earnings.

Read More

Earnings In Focus Ahead Of Jobs Data

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Mon pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

U.S. equities finished mixed and near the flatline in a choppy session, as investors await a week chock full of earnings and economic data, headlined by tomorrow’s release of the September nonfarm payroll report.

Meanwhile, the Dow was pressured by McDonald’s disappointing same-store sales and lackluster guidance which overshadowed its better-than-expected 3Q earnings. In other equity news, Dow member JPMorgan Chase & Co reportedly reached a $13 billion civil settlement with the U.S. government, fellow Dow component AT&T agreed to sell or lease 9,700 wireless towers to Crown Castle International for $4.85 billion in cash, RadioShack reportedly secured new financing, and Netflix posted better-than-expected 3Q results after the close.

Elsewhere, treasuries were lower following a decline in U.S. existing home sales, while gold and crude oil prices were lower, and the U.S. dollar was flat.

Read More