07-12-2013

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ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, July 12, 2013

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2013/07/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-07112013/

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Market Commentary

Friday, July 12, 2013

VOLATILE FRIDAY BUT STOCKS END WEEK IN RECORD HIGH

U.S. equities ended the week in volatile fashion but managed to advance for a seventh day, extending a record for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, despite head winds for Boeing and United Parcel Service, a downgrade of France’s credit rating and disappointing U.S. economic data.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 3 points higher at 15,464, the S&P 500 Index increased 5 points (0.3%) to 1,680, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 22 points (0.6%) at 3,600.

Quarterly earnings were in focus this morning after Dow member JPMorgan Chase & Co and Wells Fargo & Co both reported stronger-than-forecasted results, while UPS released 2Q earnings guidance that missed estimates. Both banks reported bottom-line beats on in-line revenues.

However, JPMorgan Chase saw a 7.0% quarter-over-quarter decrease in mortgage originations while Wells Fargo reported a 2.7% increase. The results provided support for other bank shares, and the financial sector settled atop the sector leader board with a gain of 0.5%. Discretionary shares also outperformed the broader market as online retailers displayed strength. However, there were negatives as well.

On the downside, the industrial sector was pressured by the underperformance of two large components. United Parcel Service fell 5.8% after issuing cautious second quarter and full year earnings guidance due to a slowing U.S. industrial economy.

In addition, Dow component Boeing tumbled on heavy volume after a fire took place aboard a 787 Dreamliner at London’s Heathrow Airport. Shortly after the news broke, separate reports indicated a Florida-bound 787 was forced to return to its home port in Manchester, U.K. due to a technical issue. The materials sector also finished among the laggards after pacing yesterday’s advance.

Today’s economic data revealed the largest increase in producer prices since September 2012 due to an unexpected jump in energy prices. The Producer Price Index rose 0.8% in June and more than the consensus of 0.5%. Energy prices rose 2.9%, led by gasoline. Food prices advanced 0.2%.

Elsewhere, Consumer Sentiment Index slipped 0.2 points to 83.9 in the preliminary July reading, contrary to expectations for a slight uptick to 84.7. Even so, the index remains near its highest level since the summer of 2007, and its six-month average continues to advance, indicating a positive trend in sentiment.

For the week, the S&P 500 scored its best weekly performance since January and a third consecutive week of gains. The S&P 500 gained 3 percent, while the Dow rose 2.2 percent and the Nasdaq climbed 3.5 percent. The continuation of the upward trend came courtesy of Dow member Alcoa unofficially kicking off 2Q earnings season in positive fashion, while concerns about an expedited pullback in stimulus measures eased.

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) closed the week as follows:

Domestic TTI: +3.13% (last week +1.24%)

International TTI: +6.29% (last week +3.70%)

Have a great week.

Ulli…

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READER Q & A FOR THE WEEK

All Reader Q & A’s are listed at our web site!
Check it out at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/q&a.php

A note from reader Jeff:

Q: Ulli: Just wondering when you were going to add new positions to your model portfolios?

A: Jeff: Either on a trend line break to the upside or, once the old highs, from which the sell stops are calculated, have been taken out. I described that in my latest e-book. In case you missed it, you can download it here.

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WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?

Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly or get more details at:

https://theetfbully.com/personal-investment-management/

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Back issues of the ETF/No Load Fund Tracker are available on the web at:

https://theetfbully.com/newsletter-archives/

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, July 12, 2013

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2013/07/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-07112013/

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Market Commentary

Friday, July 12, 2013

VOLATILE FRIDAY BUT STOCKS END WEEK IN RECORD HIGH

U.S. equities ended the week in volatile fashion but managed to advance for a seventh day, extending a record for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, despite head winds for Boeing and United Parcel Service, a downgrade of France’s credit rating and disappointing U.S. economic data.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 3 points higher at 15,464, the S&P 500 Index increased 5 points (0.3%) to 1,680, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 22 points (0.6%) at 3,600.

Quarterly earnings were in focus this morning after Dow member JPMorgan Chase & Co and Wells Fargo & Co both reported stronger-than-forecasted results, while UPS released 2Q earnings guidance that missed estimates. Both banks reported bottom-line beats on in-line revenues.

However, JPMorgan Chase saw a 7.0% quarter-over-quarter decrease in mortgage originations while Wells Fargo reported a 2.7% increase. The results provided support for other bank shares, and the financial sector settled atop the sector leader board with a gain of 0.5%. Discretionary shares also outperformed the broader market as online retailers displayed strength. However, there were negatives as well.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 07/11/2013

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, July 11, 2013

Table of Content082312

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/25/2011

TTI

The Domestic TTI broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the recent past, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. The clear break to the upside occurred on 10/24/11 and, effective 10/25/11, a new Buy signal for domestic equities went into effect.

As of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has bounced off its long term trend line (red) by +3.14% after briefly dipping below it late in June.

To avoid a potential whip-saw, a Sell signal to move out of all domestic equity positions will be generated once we have clearly pierced the line to the downside. Be sure to tune in for the latest updates.

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Fed Pushes Jelly Back In The Donut—SPX Rallies To New Record

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Thur pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

A day after Chairman Ben Bernanke said the Federal Reserve will keep a loose monetary policy for some time to lower the unemployment rate, U.S. equity markets advanced to record highs at the close of Thursday’s session. Apparently, we must have misunderstood Bernanke’s previous remarks of tapering, as he has now successfully pushed the jelly back in the donut.

The S&P 500 index topped the closing record of 1,669.16 reached May 21, erasing losses since Bernanke first suggested the Fed might curb stimulus this year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also jumped to a record close. More than 85 percent of shares on the New York Stock Exchange and almost 70 percent of those on the Nasdaq rose on Thursday. All 10 of the S&P 500 industry sectors advanced, with five of them rising more than 1.5 percent.

In economic news, jobless claims surprisingly rose above the key level of 350,000 and import prices unexpectedly declined. Data today showed the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly increased to a two-month high. Swings in jobless applications are typical in July as auto plants close for annual retooling. The Labor Department last week released its jobs report for the month of June, showing the economy added 195,000 jobs, exceeding estimates, while the unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.6 percent. Additionally, equities found support from overseas, as the Bank of Japan issued an upgraded economic outlook, while hopes regarding the prospect of further Chinese economic stimulus continued to rise.

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Volatile Session Thanks To Fed’s Minutes

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Wed pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

U.S. equity indexes ended this volatile session on a mixed note, after the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June policy meeting created uncertainty over when and if the central bank will start to trim the stimulus.

Attention shifted to focus on the speech by Chairman Ben Bernanke to begin after the closing bell. The Chairman says the U.S. economy still needs help from the Fed’ low interest rate policies, and because unemployment remains high and inflation is below the Fed’s target, the policies are still necessary. However, just like the Fed’s minutes, Bernanke failed to signal any changes in the bond-buying program during his remarks.

On the markets, energy and financials displayed weakness throughout the day before settling near their lows. The energy sector shed 0.6% despite the continued rise in crude oil, which added 2.4% to $106.04 per barrel. The energy component has rallied steadily since late June, and reports of a well leak off the coast of Louisiana contributed to today’s strength.

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7 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 7/9/2013

Ulli Model ETF Portfolios Contact

Anticipation, that the much lowered earnings bar will lead to better than expected results, as earnings season gets underway, along with lessened fears about the Fed’s potential tapering efforts, pushed the major market indexes higher.

Since last week’s ETF Model Portfolio report, the S&P 500 gained some 2.35% as risk seems to be back on. It’s interesting to note that during the first 6 months of this year, the widely diversified models underperformed severely, along with those invested in bond ETFs, while the simpler models (#2 and #5) showed some decent gains.

Yes, with the benefit of hindsight, this year for sure rewarded those invested in either the major equity indexes or simply only in SPY, as described in my latest e-book “How to beat the S&P 500…with the S&P 500,” which you can download here.

Here’s the latest ETF Model Portfolio update:

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