First Day Of Trading Seems Sour, Economy Looks Sweeter

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Thur pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving The Markets

U.S. stock indexes posted their largest decline in three weeks on the first trading day of 2014, after the benchmark S&P 500 finished its best year since 1997. Oil and gas producers were among the hardest hit following a 3% drop in oil prices to under $96 a barrel as Libya prepares to reopen a major oilfield. The dollar rallied though against a basket of major currencies (DXY) as U.S. jobs, housing and manufacturing data gave support to the Federal Reserve’s decision to start slowing its stimulus program this month. This was the dollar’s largest daily gain in five months against a basket of currencies.

Across the pond, the euro fell 0.7 percent against the dollar to $1.3654, touching a two-week low of $1.3628. It might be hard to believe, but Europe’s common currency was the strongest-performing major currency in 2013. Historically though, the euro has tended to weaken at the start of a calendar year.

Perhaps the most positive news as we begin 2014 is that U.S. factory activity remained at a 2-1/2-year high in December and the number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits fell again last week, suggesting the world’s largest economy is on stable footing.

Checking in on gold- and precious-metals and mining funds during a gold-bullish kickoff to the New Year, SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) and iShares Silver Trust (SLV) are gaining 1.8% and 3.2%, respectively. Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is ahead by 3.6%.

With the major indexes pulling back today, our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight followed suit as they all came off their recent highs to varying degrees. Take a look at the YTD table below.

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Closing The Year On A High Note

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Tue pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving The Markets

The S&P 500 along with the Dow Industrials kept its upward momentum intact during this last trading day by closing out this year at new record levels. As it stands, the Fed’s decision earlier this month to start tapering was taken as a positive, which helped the indexes to keep the rally going.

Of course, the Fed’s action was speculated on and anticipated throughout this year, so by the time the trigger was actually pulled, it no longer was a surprise, and the markets handled it in stride despite a momentary sell off.

The strength of equities was surprising given the fact that bonds hit the skids earlier this year, slipped into bear market territory and never recovered in any meaningful way. Lots of speculation abounds about what the markets will do next year. My suggestion is that you pay no attention to these exercises in futility and focus on the the long-term trend. Combine the direction of the trend with my recommended sell stop discipline, and you can eliminate much of the guesswork as to what might or might not happen.

With the continuation of the current upside momentum in equities, nine of our ten ETFs in the Spotlight made new highs today. Take a look at the YTD table below.

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Investors Optimistic As We Head Into 2014

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Mon pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving The Markets

After years, in which financial markets lurched from the debt crisis in Europe to U.S. political deadlock, investors are generally becoming more upbeat on the global economic outlook. However, U.S. equity indices closed flat on Monday as light trading heading into the New Year holiday left many market participants on the sidelines at the end of what is expected to be the best year for stocks since 1997. The S&P 500 is up sharply YTD, and many investment strategists remain positive that the market will post another gain in 2014.

U.S. benchmark yields slipped below the 3 percent threshold after they hit a two-year high last week on expectations of improving domestic growth as the Federal Reserve begins to pare its massive bond-purchase stimulus in January. Views on economic improvement further reduced the appeal of gold, which will record its biggest annual loss in 32 years. Oil prices fell to near $111 a barrel in London on signs crude exports from Libya might return to normal due to a possible end to a four-month blockage of a key port.

In the ETF world, iShares, the exchange-traded funds platform of BlackRock, has announced the launch of the iShares Euro Stoxx 50 ex-Financials UCITS ETF (EXFN). The fund, listed on the London Stock Exchange, offers investors access to large-cap Eurozone equities whilst stripping out financial exposures such as banks and insurance companies. The fund will be Europe’s first ETF to come to market with an international security structure.

With the continuation of recent upside momentum in equities, seven of our ten ETFs in the Spotlight made new highs today. Take a look at the YTD table below.

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ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 12/27/2013

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 398 ETFs, of which currently 331 (last week 304) are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 93 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 60 ETFs (last week 65) have managed to remain in bullish territory after the recent market volatility.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 708 (last week 697) above the line and 142 below it out of the 859 that I follow.

Take a look:

1. ETF Master Cutline Report     

2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report

3. MF Cutline Report

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.

If you missed the original post about the Cutline approach, you can read it here.

Please note that Mutual fund prices have not been adjusted for year end distributions.

One Man’s Opinion: Would An Interest Rate Hike By The Fed In 2014 Be Calamitous?

Ulli Market Review Contact

92835431There is too much optimism as markets go into 2014, and it’s really easy to get caught up in all the good news at this time of the year, said James Bevan, Chief Investment Officer at CCLA Investment Management.

Realistically, the fundamentals are very strong, the central banks very supportive and the companies are saying all the right things. The question is what might go wrong? Risk number one, of course, is the US as there is a broad expectation the economy is moving at a rate that is consistent with the Fed taking some money away from support but still delivering growth.

Now, if there is too much growth, the Fed may act much more aggressively, potentially raising interest rates ahead of expectations, which could be calamitous for the markets, James said.

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New ETFs On The Block: Cambria Foreign Shareholder Yield ETF (FYLD)

Ulli Equity ETFs Contact

105487691Cambria Investment Management, a California-based upstart investment adviser, has launched its third exchange-traded fund in an effort to expand the firm’s portfolio of the so-called “shareholder yield” products.

The Cambria Foreign Shareholder Yield ETD (FYLD) is the global equivalent of a newly minted, but fairly successful domestic predecessor – the Cambria Shareholder Yield ETF (SYLD), which has already attracted more than $170 million in investments so far this year.

Listed on the NYSE Arca, FYLD screens for companies that have a history of strong dividend payouts, and carrying out share-buyback activities. The fund tracks the Cambria Foreign Shareholder Yield Index, a benchmark that focuses on non-US developed market stocks and gives access to about 100 securities with high shareholder yields.

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