ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 11/15/2013

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 398 ETFs, of which currently 339 (last week 322) are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 93 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 71 ETFs (last week 68) have managed to remain in bullish territory after the recent market volatility.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 799 (last week 797) above the line and 51 below it out of the 859 that I follow.

Take a look:

1. ETF Master Cutline Report     

2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report

3. MF Cutline Report

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.

If you missed the original post about the Cutline approach, you can read it here.

One Man’s Opinion: Does A Dovish Fed Make Life Difficult For The European Central Bank?

Ulli Market Review Contact

92835431One could expect the Federal Reserve chair nominee Janet Yellen to very much explain the Fed policies because she has been the Fed vice-chair for the last two years. She has very much bought into the strategies being pursued by Bernanke said Jeremy Stretch, head of currency strategy at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce.

That pretty much boxes analysts into a corner ahead of her testimony, because everybody’s perceived that her dovish tendencies coming out of the statement. So even a relatively balanced testimony in the Q&A and perhaps not wanting to alienate some of the Republican minority members of the Senate Banking Committee could actually start reign back in some of the expectations of a stimulatory monetary policies now, that could well see the US yields moving higher again and dragging the dollar with it, Jeremy said.

Asked how much dovishness is actually priced-in by the markets, Jeremy said a considerable amount since that has been the ongoing and overriding assumption. Her candidacy was always an expectation of an extension of the status-quo and maybe even a little more that – this perception that she is an “uber-dove”.

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New ETFs On The Block: Global X Next Emerging And Frontier ETF (EMFM)

Ulli Emerging Markets ETFs Contact

141319272Global X Funds, the New York-based sponsor of exchange-traded funds known for its dividend-focused products, has launched a fund that gives investors exposure to an exciting crop of emerging and frontier markets.

The Global X Next Emerging & Frontier ETF (EMFM) gives a new spin to EM investing as it includes equities from 35 countries exhibiting high growth potential and favorable demographical trends. The fund comprises of 200 holdings and focuses on regions that haven’t been available to most US retail investors, and specifically excludes stocks from the BRICS, South Korea and Taiwan.

Global X believes the countries included in EMFM have a demographic advantage over the BRIC nations with an average age of 28 against 33 for BRIC. It believes these economies will experience longer periods of high growth rates, similar to what the BRIC nations experienced over the past 15 years.

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11-15-2013

Ulli Newsletter Archives Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, November 15, 2013

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2013/11/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-11142013/

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Market Commentary

Friday, November 15, 2013

EQUITIES TREND HIGHER, EMPLOYMENT EXPECTED TO SIT STILL

Fri chart

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving The Markets

U.S. stocks climbed again, with the Dow industrials and S&P 500 knocking out a sixth week of record-clearing gains, as investors embraced the notion of continued stimulus from the Federal Reserve.  Oil fell for a sixth week, its longest such stretch since December of 1998.  Oil is trading at $81.30 a barrel on Friday afternoon. The dollar edged lower against the currencies of major U.S. trading partners, while the 10-year Treasury note yield used in figuring mortgage rates and consumer loans rose 1 basis point to 2.70 percent.

Heading towards 2014, the unemployment dilemma remains persistent.  Although we have seen a surprising pickup in U.S. jobs growth in October, unemployment is expected to remain above 9 percent next year.  On the flip side, there has been some positive economic data including ISM survey and a better than expected advance in third-quarter GDP numbers.

Quantitative Easing ‘QE’ tapering has been causing quite a ruckus in the REIT sector. Now that the U.S. economy has grown 2.8% in the third quarter, the possibility of the Fed’s QE taper came into the picture again.

While securities in this space boast some of the highest yields in the equity market, these firms are typically highly leveraged and more vulnerable to interest fluctuations than most in the REIT world.  Given this, you should be at least a little concerned about the current state of the REIT ETF market. These funds might be interesting short-candidates (or at least funds to avoid) for those who believe a taper is coming, or a solid contrarian play for investors who think that a reduction in QE isn’t coming anytime soon; however, it’s best to let the long-term trend be your friend.

Speaking of friends, let’s look at our ETFs in the spotlight:

2. ETFs in the Spotlight

In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.

It features 10 broadly diversified ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Monday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year.

In other words, all of them never triggered their 7.5% sell stop level during this time period, which included a variety of severe market pullbacks but no move into outright bear market territory.

Here are the 10 candidates:

MaxDD

All of them are in “buy” mode meaning their prices are above their respective long term trend lines by the percentage indicated (%M/A).

Now let’s look at the MaxDD% column and review the ETF with the lowest drawdown as an example. As you can see, that would be XLY with the lowest MaxDD% number of -5.73%, which occurred on 11/15/2012.

The recent sell off in the month of June did not affect XLY at all as its “worst” MaxDD% of -5.73% still stands since the November 2012 sell off.

A quick glance at the last column showing the date of occurrences confirms that five of these ETFs had their worst drawdown in November 2012, while the other five were affected by the June 2013 swoon, however, none of them dipped below their -7.5% sell stop.

Year to date, here’s how the above candidates have fared so far:

YTD

With the positive tone in the market, all 10 ETFs have made new highs represented by the 0.00% value in the “Off High” column.

3. Domestic Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

Trend wise, our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) rallied with the markets and remain above their long term trend lines by the following percentages:

Domestic TTI: +4.79% (last week +3.98%)

International TTI: +7.59% (last week +6.48%)

Have a great week.

Ulli…

Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as advisory clients of mine, own some of these listed ETFs. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the guidelines specified.

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READER Q & A FOR THE WEEK

All Reader Q & A’s are listed at our web site!
Check it out at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/q&a.php

A note from reader Ian:

Q: Ulli: I’m wondering why the international TTI is still 6.57% above its trend line when VWO is well below its 200 day SMA and in a significant downward spiral. Please see the chart at this link:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VWO&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p74340931489

Thanks for your clarification on this.

A: Ian: The International TTI is a representation of “broadly diversified international funds/ETFs.” This does not include volatile country or emerging market funds. For those, you would use their own respective M/As to make your buy/sell decisions. That’s why they are listed in separate sections of the weekly StatSheet.

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WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?

Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly or get more details at:

https://theetfbully.com/personal-investment-management/

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Back issues of the ETF/No Load Fund Tracker are available on the web at:

https://theetfbully.com/newsletter-archives/

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, November 15, 2013

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2013/11/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-11142013/

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Market Commentary

Friday, November 15, 2013

EQUITIES TREND HIGHER, EMPLOYMENT EXPECTED TO SIT STILL

Fri chart

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving The Markets

U.S. stocks climbed again, with the Dow industrials and S&P 500 knocking out a sixth week of record-clearing gains, as investors embraced the notion of continued stimulus from the Federal Reserve.  Oil fell for a sixth week, its longest such stretch since December of 1998.  Oil is trading at $81.30 a barrel on Friday afternoon. The dollar edged lower against the currencies of major U.S. trading partners, while the 10-year Treasury note yield used in figuring mortgage rates and consumer loans rose 1 basis point to 2.70 percent.

Heading towards 2014, the unemployment dilemma remains persistent.  Although we have seen a surprising pickup in U.S. jobs growth in October, unemployment is expected to remain above 9 percent next year.  On the flip side, there has been some positive economic data including ISM survey and a better than expected advance in third-quarter GDP numbers.

Quantitative Easing ‘QE’ tapering has been causing quite a ruckus in the REIT sector. Now that the U.S. economy has grown 2.8% in the third quarter, the possibility of the Fed’s QE taper came into the picture again.

While securities in this space boast some of the highest yields in the equity market, these firms are typically highly leveraged and more vulnerable to interest fluctuations than most in the REIT world.  Given this, you should be at least a little concerned about the current state of the REIT ETF market. These funds might be interesting short-candidates (or at least funds to avoid) for those who believe a taper is coming, or a solid contrarian play for investors who think that a reduction in QE isn’t coming anytime soon; however, it’s best to let the long-term trend be your friend.

Speaking of friends, let’s look at our ETFs in the spotlight:

Read More

Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 11/14/2013

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, November 14, 2013

Table of Content082312

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/25/2011

TTI

Our main directional indicator, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI), broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the recent past, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. The clear break to the upside occurred on 10/24/11 and, effective 10/25/11, a new Buy signal for domestic equities went into effect.

As of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has bounced off its long term trend line (red) by +4.78% after briefly dipping below it late in June 2013.

To avoid a potential whip-saw, a Sell signal to move out of all domestic equity positions will be generated once we have clearly pierced the line to the downside. Be sure to tune in for the latest updates.

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