ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For April 11, 2014

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

————————————————————-

THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2014/04/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-04102014/

————————————————————

Market Commentary

Friday, April 11, 2014

MARKETS CONTINUE TO SLIDE; TTIs ARE STILL ON THE BULLISH SIDE

Fri pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving The Markets

MARKETS CONTINUE TO SLIDE; TTIs ARE STILL ON THE BULLISH SIDE

The recent volatility of the market did not end the week in favor of the bulls. The ‘high momentum’ and tech stocks that I have been reporting on over the past two weeks continued to be the culprit of the market’s continued slide, with bank stocks such as JPMorgan Chase (JPM) adding additional troubles to the mix.  All major indexes slipped as the 5-day chart above shows, and the Nasdaq tanked 1.34% officially dropping below 4,000 for the first time since February.

Of course, given the slide in equities, the U.S. bond market rallied this week on renewed safe-haven bids as well as relief buying in reaction to the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s March 18-19 policy meeting. The intense appetite for bonds spread into this week’s auction of $64 billion worth of longer-term debt, which raised $13.5 billion in new cash for the federal government.

While the market pullback this week may have you worried, those who have been in the game long enough are shrugging it off as irrational overreaction. That is fine, but what is more important is the fact that this bull market may come to an end. As I have pounced on before, this is where the rubber meets the road and, if you are following long-term trends, the time will come when it’s wise to move to the safety of the sidelines. We have not reached that point yet, but you sure don’t want to participate in another bear disaster a la 2008 or worse. Have your sell stops ready and be prepared to execute when the time comes. I sure will.

The final nail in the coffin may very well come next week when the Chinese government releases its Q1 2014 growth figures.  Underperforming numbers could have an impact on equities here in the U.S.

Our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight dropped as well with one of them breaking its long term trend line into bearish territory; only 4 of them remain positive YTD. Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) are still hovering on the bullish side as the tables below show:

Read More

Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 04/10/2014

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, April 10, 2014

Table of Content082312

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/25/2011

TTI

Our main directional indicator, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI), broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the recent past, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. The clear break to the upside occurred on 10/24/11 and, effective 10/25/11, a new Buy signal for domestic equities went into effect.

As of today, our TTI (green line in above chart) is positioned above its long term trend line (red) by +1.80%.

To avoid a potential whip-saw, a Sell signal to move out of all domestic equity positions will be generated once we have clearly pierced the red line to the downside. Be sure to tune in for the latest updates.

Read More

US Equities Get Spanked; AKA When Good News Is Bad News

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Thur pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving The Markets

What a difference a day makes. After the markets fell in love with yesterday’s Fed minutes, which caused a nice rebound rally, today it was back to reality as the major indexes reversed affected by the same suspects during the last sell off, namely technology and biotech sectors with IBB losing 5.61%. Suddenly, evaluations were seen as being a little on the frothy side.

Yesterday’s winners, like Facebook and Google, got hammered today as they dropped 5.21% and 3.59% respectively while the Nasdaq suffered its worst day since late 2011. In terms of technical weakness, it’s worth noting that the S&P knifed through its widely followed 50-day moving average by -0.27%.

Starting the day on a negative tone were poor trade data from China, which pushed concerns about a slowing global demand back on the front burner. The only positive of the day was a jobless claims report showing that new applications for unemployment benefits dropped to the lowest level in some 7 years. That’s an indication of an improving US Labor market, which is good news but interpreted as bad news when comes to the continuation of the Fed’s QE program along with the hope of forever low interest rates.

Our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight headed south as well but 6 of them are remaining on the positive side YTD. No sell stops were triggered and no trend lines were crossed to the downside.

Read More

Markets React Well To Fed Minutes; Biotech Back In Focus

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Wed pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving The Markets

Major U.S. indexes rose broadly Wednesday, helped by a report out of the nation’s central bank that showed Fed policymakers want to be absolutely certain the U.S. economy had recovered before starting to raise interest rates. Feeling at ease that the Fed won’t raise rates until sometime next year, investors seemed to feel a bit more comfortable pursuing the market’s more risky investments, with Biotech and Tech stocks attracting much of the focus. Utilities and Telecommunications stocks, which are traditionally considered more conservative investments, suffered as a consequence.

Facebook (FB) was a big success today gaining 7.25%.  Aluminum giant Alcoa (AA) reported an adjusted first-quarter profit that was well ahead of analysts’ forecasts. The aluminum maker is typically the first large U.S. Corporation to report its results every quarter. Alcoa rose 47 cents, or 4%, to $13.  On a negative note, Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), the maker of robotic surgical equipment, slumped 7%. The company warned that first-quarter sales would be drastically lower than previously expected.

In other markets, gold and crude oil inched higher after the Fed minutes. European stocks and most of Asia, with the exception of the Nikkei 225 also rose today.

Our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight joined the party and headed north; 2 of them made new highs while 9 of them remain positive YTD.

Read More

Volatility Remains But Markets Snap Back

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Tue pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving The Markets

U.S. stocks rose today, snapping a three-day losing streak as investors smiled upon social media and tech shares. Being its volatile self, the S&P is now back in positive territory for the year. Tuesday’s advance followed the S&P 500’s biggest three-day retreat since late January and the Nasdaq’s steepest three-day drop since November 2011. Notable gainers that bounced back from sell-offs over the past couple of days included Amazon.com Inc, (AMZN) up 2.9%; Yahoo Inc, (YHOO) up 2.3% at; and LinkedIn (LKND), up 5.9%

Financial stocks were back in the spotlight today as we received word that regulators finalized the rule to limit banks’ reliance on debt. Under the new rule, the eight biggest U.S. banks must raise a total of about $68 billion in capital by 2018 to comply with a new rule designed to prevent another financial crisis. The rules would apply to JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, BNY Mellon and State Street .

In the international realm, European markets fell as tensions flared again in Ukraine. Russia’s Foreign Ministry warned Kiev on Tuesday that use of force in the eastern region could lead to civil war. Asian markets were mixed Tuesday. Tokyo’s Nikkei fell 1.4% as the central bank ended a policy meeting without any hint of further economic stimulus.

Our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight recovered with one of them making a new high while 9 of them are still positive YTD.

Read More

Equities Selloff Continues…

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Mon pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving The Markets

Today officially marks the first day that all three major indexes (S&P, Dow and Nasdaq) are negative year to date. The Nasdaq continued its decline (which began last Thursday) and is now down a combined 4.6% over the three day period. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones both finished down more than 1% each today as well. The buzz is that the recent losses relate to investors rotating out of growth stocks, especially in the tech sector, and reinvesting into value stocks.

Following suit, Internet stocks were among the day’s biggest decliners with Amazon.com (AMZN) down 1.6% and Yahoo! Inc (YHOO) off 3.5%. The Global X Social Media ETF (SOCL.) which includes Groupon Inc (GRPN) and LinkedIn (LNKD) fell 2.5%.

While the recent three day selloff may startle some, overall market sentiment remains positive moving forward. With the big gains that many investors have realized since the beginning of the year, it is not uncommon for a market correction such as this to take place. Volatility has always been on the plate thus far in 2014 though, so do not be surprised to see it continue moving forward. However, this is the time to make sure you have your sell stops in place should this pullback accelerate and turn into an outright bear market. As always, our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs), see section 3 below, will be our guide.

Our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight headed south as well but none of them has broken their individual long term trend line to the downside yet; 9 of them are still in the green YTD. Take a look:

Read More