ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 01/24/2014

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 398 ETFs, of which currently 311 (last week 325) are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 93 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 52 ETFs (last week 60) have managed to remain in bullish territory after the recent market volatility.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 590 (last week 703) above the line and 259 below it out of the 859 that I follow.

Take a look:

1. ETF Master Cutline Report     

2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report

3. MF Cutline Report

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.

If you missed the original post about the Cutline approach, you can read it here.

Please note that Mutual fund prices have not been adjusted for yearend distributions.

One Man’s Opinion: Will US Equities Outperform Bonds In 2014?

Ulli Market Review Contact

92835431The latest manufacturing data out of China, which showed a contraction, was enough to take global equity markets down Friday, said Mark Eibel, Director of Client Investment Strategies at Russell Investments.  The US earnings season has been pretty mixed and even a strong manufacturing reading out of Europe was not good enough to change the downbeat tone for the day, he noted.

Asked to comment on the January 31 deadline in China about Trust wealth products that could possibly lead to default and trigger a stock-market correction this quarter, Mark said he doesn’t think one data point out of China is enough for such a reaction.

All these days, global attention was focused on the US – the debt ceiling, federal budget negotiations and the Federal Reserve policies. However, the trigger point will not come from the US and it’s more likely to come from outside.

Read More

New ETFs On The Block: First Trust NASDAQ Rising Dividend Achievers ETF (RDVY)

Ulli Dividend ETFs Contact

90272538Illinois-based provider of exchange-traded funds First Trust has introduced its first fund in 2014, adding to its lineup of dividend exchange-traded funds with the launch of its First Trust NASDAQ Rising Dividend Achievers Fund (RDVY). Although 2013 turned out to be a disappointing year for income strategies, demand for yield focused funds remained robust, which probably explains why First Trust chose to launch a fund with a twist in this already overcrowded space.

RDVY tracks the NASDAQ US Rising Dividend Achievers Index, a benchmark that focuses on 50 companies with a history boosting their payouts. Also, companies need to show the potential of raising dividends in the future to be included in the index.

To achieve this, a firm’s earnings growth, levels of cash reserve compared to debt and the proportion of dividend payouts are screened first. Firms with a history of growing dividend payouts and earnings per share, along with a cash-to-debt ratio higher than 50 percent and a trailing 12-month payout ratio below 65 percent make it to the benchmark.

Read More

01-24-2014

Ulli Newsletter Archives Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, January 24, 2014

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2014/01/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-01232014/

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Market Commentary

Friday, January 24, 2014

STOCKS TAKE A BEATING THIS WEEK

Fri pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving The Markets

Well, it was a poor end to a mediocre week in the U.S. stock market. U.S. stocks experienced their largest daily drop of the year with the S&P falling 2.09%, the Dow -1.96% and the Nasdaq -2.15%. The chart above shows the impact of the entire last five trading days. This officially marks the worst week for benchmark indexes since 2012. What is going on?

Many analysts place the blame on increased volatility in global markets, which sparked a large selloff of developing-nation currencies. The Volatility S&P 500 (VIX) index was up 31% today, which adds fuel to the ‘anticipated volatility’ fire. Major markets in Europe and Asia also closed lower and remember that we also had weak growth numbers come out of China yesterday.

Others say that this is the correction we have been waiting for. Let us not forget the old saying “as goes January, so goes the year.” With only five days of trading left this month and with the S&P down 50 points (-3%) the old January effect saying might indicate that we are in for a rough ride this year. This should make for an interesting next week of trading; it is crucial that you have your exit strategy in place and execute your plan should your sell stops get triggered.

Our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight headed south but none of them triggered a “Sell,”, although some have come close as the table below shows.

2. ETFs in the Spotlight

In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.

It features 10 broadly diversified ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Monday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year.

In other words, none of them ever triggered their 7.5% sell stop level during this time period, which included a variety of severe market pullbacks but no move into outright bear market territory.

Here are the 10 candidates:

MaxDD

All of them are in “buy” mode meaning their prices are above their respective long term trend lines by the percentage indicated (%M/A).

Now let’s look at the MaxDD% column and review the ETF with the lowest drawdown as an example. As you can see, that would be XLY with the lowest MaxDD% number of -5.73%, which occurred on 11/15/2012.

The recent sell off in the month of June did not affect XLY at all as its “worst” MaxDD% of -5.73% still stands since the November 2012 sell off.

A quick glance at the last column showing the date of occurrences confirms that five of these ETFs had their worst drawdown in November 2012, while the other five were affected by the June 2013 swoon, however, none of them dipped below their -7.5% sell stop.

Year to date, here’s how the above candidates have fared so far:

YTD

3. Domestic Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) joined the downward momentum, but they remain on the bullish side of their respective trend lines:

Domestic TTI: +2.67% (last Friday +4.01%)

International TTI: +4.34% (last Friday +6.79%)

Have a great week.

Ulli…

Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as advisory clients of mine, own some of these listed ETFs. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the guidelines specified.

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READER Q & A FOR THE WEEK

All Reader Q & A’s are listed at our web site!
Check it out at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/q&a.php

A note from reader Don:

Q: Ulli: Is your 39 week moving average really a 195 day moving average?  (39 weeks x 5 trading days per week = 195)

A: Don: There is a small difference. With a 39-week M/A, you recalculate the average only every Friday while when using a 195 day M/A, you would recalculate every day. I prefer the former, though in the end it may not make that much difference. Whatever you prefer, you should use.

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WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?

Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly or get more details at:

https://theetfbully.com/personal-investment-management/

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Back issues of the ETF/No Load Fund Tracker are available on the web at:

https://theetfbully.com/newsletter-archives/

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, January 24, 2014

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

————————————————————-

THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2014/01/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-01232014/

————————————————————

Market Commentary

Friday, January 24, 2014

STOCKS TAKE A BEATING THIS WEEK

Fri pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving The Markets

Well, it was a poor end to a mediocre week in the U.S. stock market. U.S. stocks experienced their largest daily drop of the year with the S&P falling 2.09%, the Dow -1.96% and the Nasdaq -2.15%. The chart above shows the impact of the entire last five trading days. This officially marks the worst week for benchmark indexes since 2012. What is going on?

Many analysts place the blame on increased volatility in global markets, which sparked a large sell-off of developing-nation currencies. The Volatility S&P 500 (VIX) index was up 31% today, which adds fuel to the ‘anticipated volatility’ fire. Major markets in Europe and Asia also closed lower and remember that we also had weak growth numbers come out of China yesterday.

Others say that this is the correction we have been waiting for. Let us not forget the old saying “as goes January, so goes the year.” With only five days of trading left this month and with the S&P down 50 points (-3%) the old January effect saying might indicate that we are in for a rough ride this year. This should make for an interesting next week of trading; it is crucial that you have your exit strategy in place and execute your plan should your sell stops get triggered.

Our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight headed south but none of them triggered a “Sell,”, although some have come close as the table below shows.

Read More

Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 01/23/2014

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, January 23, 2014

Table of Content082312

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/25/2011

TTI

Our main directional indicator, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI), broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the recent past, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. The clear break to the upside occurred on 10/24/11 and, effective 10/25/11, a new Buy signal for domestic equities went into effect.

As of today, our TTI (green line in above chart) has bounced off its long term trend line (red) by +3.90%.

To avoid a potential whip-saw, a Sell signal to move out of all domestic equity positions will be generated once we have clearly pierced the line to the downside. Be sure to tune in for the latest updates.

Read More