One Man’s Opinion: Should The European Central Bank Have Done More To Boost Economies?

Ulli Market Review Contact

92835431The first eurozone composite Purchasing Manager’s Index reading for February came in at 52.7, falling short of the 53.1 that economists had called for. However, the services component of the index has improved by-and-large in most countries over the past few months and the latest reading (51.7 versus forecast of 51.9) is consistent with that, said Gilles Moec, European co-Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank AG.

The services sector improved faster because fiscal austerity is probably not as tough now as it was 2-3 years ago. There has been some normalization of domestic demand, which is reflecting in the services data. On the manufacturing front, things are a little more difficult though because it depends a lot on the type of traction available outside Europe.

Investors could be tempted to read the small dip in German manufacturing PMI as an indication of what’s going on in China (Chinese manufacturing PMI slipped deeper in the contractionary region for the second straight month in February). However, prudence is required since the relationship between German and Chinese manufacturing PMI is not linear though it’s a possibility.

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New ETFs On The Block: Wisdomtree’s Bloomberg Floating Rate Treasury Fund (USFR)

Ulli Income ETFs Contact

90272538WisdomTree, the New York-based fifth largest provider of exchange-traded funds in the US, unveiled the WisdomTree Bloomberg Floating Rate Treasury Fund (USFR) recently to tap into the growing demand for floating rate debt.

As historically low interest rates start to normalize, bond prices – particularly the longer duration debt will start to slide, and thus the demand for shorter duration floating rate debt to mitigate interest rate risk.

The new fund provides exposure in floating rate notes, or FRNs, and pays floating coupons quarterly. The variable interest rate will be reset every week and is calculated by adding a predetermined spread over a short-term interest rate, in this case yield on the most recent 13-week Treasury bill auction. This is the US govt’s first FRN offering and the first time since 1997 the US Treasury debuted a new security for investors.

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02-21-2014

Ulli Newsletter Archives Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, February 21, 2014

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2014/02/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-02202014/

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Market Commentary

Friday, February 21, 2014

WEEK IN REVIEW

Fri pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving The Markets

Friday ended the week on a bit of a sour note given that markets had performed relatively well for the last few days. Today, Priceline (PCLN) gained 2.5% and Intuit (INTU) was up 4.6% after beating earnings estimates. Amazon.com (AMZN) was slightly lower after reports it will list brands such as Ralph Lauren.

A lot of investor news this week seemed to center on the major M&A deals that were announced. Last week, Comcast (CMCSA) said it’s acquiring Time Warner Cable (TWC). Later we heard that Apple’s (AAPL) M&A people were talking with Tesla (TSLA). Then came the blockbuster deal: Facebook (FB) is buying WhatsApp for $16.4 billion.

Perhaps the most disturbing of these deals is the Time Warner-Comcast deal. Many are worried that this may be too large a consolidation of entities that play a major role in not only how we view content, but also what content we view.

International stocks were higher after the prior day’s slump as the Bank of Japan’s January meeting minutes indicated that its aggressive stimulus could persist for more than the market’s expectation of two years. The USD fell against the euro on Friday after weak US housing data stoked concerns about the American economy, but notched its first week of broad gains against a basket of major currencies in three weeks.

Our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight held steady and 3 of them have now turned positive for the year.

2. ETFs in the Spotlight

In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.

It features 10 broadly diversified ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Monday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year.

In other words, none of them ever triggered their 7.5% sell stop level during this time period, which included a variety of severe market pullbacks but no move into outright bear market territory.

Here are the 10 candidates:

MaxDD

All of them are in “buy” mode meaning their prices are above their respective long term trend lines by the percentage indicated (%M/A).

Year to date, here’s how the above candidates have fared so far:

YTD

To be clear, the first table above shows the position of the various ETFs in relation to their respective long term trend lines (%M/A), while the second one tracks their trailing sell stops in the “Off High” column.

3. Domestic Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) meandered sideways and closed only slightly changed from the prior week.

Domestic TTI: +3.45% (last Friday +3.58%)

International TTI: +6.12% (last Friday +5.65%)

Have a great week.

Ulli…

Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as advisory clients of mine, own some of these listed ETFs. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the guidelines specified.

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READER Q & A FOR THE WEEK

All Reader Q & A’s are listed at our web site!
Check it out at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/q&a.php

A note from reader Kathy:

Q: Ulli: Two days ago your newsletter said you liquidated these positions but today’s charts are still showing a hold? Am I missing something?

A: Kathy: As I mentioned in the NL, I am tracking 2 different items in the 2 tables. The first one shows any trend line breaks, some of which happened, while the second one tracks the trailing sell stops.

I did sell my positions on a break below the trend line, but you can use the trailing sell stops as well. It all depends on your risk tolerance.

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WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?

Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly or get more details at:

https://theetfbully.com/personal-investment-management/

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Back issues of the ETF/No Load Fund Tracker are available on the web at:

https://theetfbully.com/newsletter-archives/

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, February 21, 2014

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2014/02/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-02202014/

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Market Commentary

Friday, February 21, 2014

WEEK IN REVIEW

Fri pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving The Markets

Friday ended the week on a bit of a sour note given that markets had performed relatively well for the last few days. Today, Priceline (PCLN) gained 2.5% and Intuit (INTU) was up 4.6% after beating earnings estimates. Amazon.com (AMZN) was slightly lower after reports it will list brands such as Ralph Lauren.

A lot of investor news this week seemed to center on the major M&A deals that were announced. Last week, Comcast (CMCSA) said it’s acquiring Time Warner Cable (TWC). Later we heard that Apple’s (AAPL) M&A people were talking with Tesla (TSLA). Then came the blockbuster deal: Facebook (FB) is buying WhatsApp for $16.4 billion.

Perhaps the most disturbing of these deals is the Time Warner-Comcast deal. Many are worried that this may be too large a consolidation of entities that play a major role in not only how we view content, but also what content we view.

International stocks were higher after the prior day’s slump as the Bank of Japan’s January meeting minutes indicated that its aggressive stimulus could persist for more than the market’s expectation of two years. The USD fell against the euro on Friday after weak US housing data stoked concerns about the American economy, but notched its first week of broad gains against a basket of major currencies in three weeks.

Our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight held steady and 3 of them have now turned positive for the year.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 02/20/2014

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, February 20, 2014

Table of Content082312

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/25/2011

TTI

Our main directional indicator, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI), broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the recent past, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. The clear break to the upside occurred on 10/24/11 and, effective 10/25/11, a new Buy signal for domestic equities went into effect.

As of today, our TTI (green line in above chart) has bounced off its long term trend line (red) by +3.64%.

To avoid a potential whip-saw, a Sell signal to move out of all domestic equity positions will be generated once we have clearly pierced the line to the downside. Be sure to tune in for the latest updates.

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U.S. Manufacturing Keeps Growing; Tesla Continues To Zoom

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Thur pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving The Markets

Overall, domestic and global markets performed well today. Here in the U.S., the S&P 500 climbed 0.6%, the Dow gained 0.7% and the Nasdaq composite rose 0.5%. A survey (from Markit) came in today that showed U.S. manufacturing expanded at the fastest pace in almost four years, which boosted investor confidence in the U.S. economy. The results from the U.S. survey contrasted with a survey of manufacturing in China, where manufacturing contracted for a second straight month in February. The contraction of manufacturing growth in China that was reported today also seemed to have an impact on oil prices, as prices fell to below $103 a barrel not long after the news. Oil prices did not drop too much though, because of the uncertainty that remains about protests in Venezuela, as well as export disruptions in Libya and South Sudan.

Tesla Motors jumped again today, 8.3% in fact, after the electric car maker delivered a strong fourth-quarter performance late Wednesday and said it expects the company’s vehicle sales to rise sharply this year. This stock has really been ‘zooming’ upwards over the past few months. It is up 30% YTD and up nearly 60% for the past 3 months despite valuation concerns that have been floating around recently.

Groupon Inc. (GRPN) fell in late trading after forecasting first-quarter profit that trailed analysts’ estimates on higher expenses for acquisitions and marketing. Online retailers generally struggled at the end of 2013. Amazon.com Inc.’s (AMZN) profit and sales trailed analyst estimates on a slowdown outside the U.S. and a surge in holiday shopping costs. EBay Inc.’s (EBAY) sales fell short of analyst estimates, and the company said in January that investor Carl Icahn had proposed splitting off its PayPal online-payments unit.

Our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight gained with the indexes, and 3 of them are in the green for the year.

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