ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 05/02/2014

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 398 ETFs, of which currently 360 (last week 351) are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 97 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 81 ETFs (last week 77) have managed to remain in bullish territory after the recent market volatility.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 658 (last week 601) above the line and 191 below it out of the 859 that I follow.

Take a look:

1. ETF Master Cutline Report     

2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report

3. MF Cutline Report

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.

If you missed the original post about the Cutline approach, you can read it here.

One Man’s Opinion: Can The Unemployment Rate Hit 5 Percent In The Next Three Years?

Ulli Market Review Contact

92835431The idea of gloom over the economy is slowly receding and getting the unemployment rate back to 5 percent will be considered normal, said Alan Krueger, former Chairman at the Council of Economic Advisers. Washington needs to focus on targeted efforts to the economy’s most severe problems, which now is long-term unemployment, rather than adding more stimuli, he noted.

Asked if it was okay for the Fed to drop the unemployment threshold of 6.5 percent before initiating tightening, Alan said it was not prudent because the unemployment rate is still one of the best economic indicators. However, market participants also need to look at the whole picture; i.e. what’s happening to labor participation rate and work hours etc.

The headline unemployment rate will still remain supreme, despite being incomplete, because all other indicators like GDP readings and so on contain tremendous amount of noise and get revised by wide margins. That is considered normal because they all run simulations where they draw the data points from the same distribution and show how different patterns emerge even with the same numbers. Everyone should consider those numbers with the appropriate grain of salt; they all indicate where the economy is going but one should not overreact to them, he observed.

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New ETFs On The Block: Powershares Variable Rate Preferred Portfolio ETF (VRP)

Ulli Income ETFs Contact

90272538PowerShares, the exchange-traded fund unit of Invesco and the fourth-largest sponsor of ETFs in the US, launched the PowerShares Variable Rate Preferred Portfolio ETF (VRP) on May 1. The fund is US’s first variable rate preferred stock ETF product.

Preferred stocks have been the toast of institutional investors due to their potential for price appreciation and impressive dividend yields. Yet the slow and inevitable rise in yields has exposed these securities’ key investment risk: like other fixed income securities that pay a preset coupon over long horizons, they can slide in value and offset income gains they produce.

A study by Merrill Lynch showed in the eight months, since Ben Bernanke announced the end of Federal Reserve stimulus, traditional preferred stocks shed 10 percent of their value. To counter this problem, a fairly new type of preferred stocks was introduced by corporations, known as variable rate preferreds or VRPs. The same study showed VRPs lost 5 percent, or half the rate of traditional preferreds, in the final eight months of 2013. You should note that most of the returns from fixed-income securities usually come from the coupons.

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05-02-2014

Ulli Newsletter Archives Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For May 2, 2014

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2014/05/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-05012014/

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Market Commentary

Friday, May 2, 2014

MARKETS UP OVERALL FOR THE WEEK ON STRONG JOBS DATA

Fri pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving The Markets

While markets slid a bit today, all three major indexes posted gains for the week as the 5-day chart above shows. The key market driver today was the much anticipated jobs report, which revealed better-than-expected data; at least on the surface. The fact that the 2 surveys used, namely the household and establishment surveys, showed a huge divergence was conveniently overlooked.

Be that as it may, data showed U.S. job growth picked up at its fastest pace in more than two years in April, suggesting a sharp rebound in economic activity early in the second quarter. Factory orders — up a strong 1.1% for March — offered another dose of good economic news but not enough to power an earlier rally through the session’s closing bell.

Healthcare shares were among the biggest strains on the market today, including U.S. drug maker Pfizer Inc (PFE) whose shares fell 1.3% after its sweetened bid for AstraZeneca Plc (AZN) was rejected.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei index ticked down 0.2% to 14,457.51 and share prices fell in Singapore and Indonesia, while they rose in Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines. The international realm is acting very unpredictable at present, especially with tensions heating up between Russia and the Ukraine.

Our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight recovered during this rebound week; none of them made new highs today but 9 of them are on the plus side YTD.

2. ETFs in the Spotlight

In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.

It features 10 broadly diversified ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Monday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year.

In other words, none of them ever triggered their 7.5% sell stop level during this time period, which included a variety of severe market pullbacks but no move into outright bear market territory.

Here are the 10 candidates:

MaxDD

All of them are in “buy” mode, meaning their prices are above their respective long term trend lines by the percentage indicated (%M/A).

Year to date, here’s how the above candidates have fared so far:

YTD

To be clear, the first table above shows the position of the various ETFs in relation to their respective long term trend lines (%M/A), while the second one tracks their trailing sell stops in the “Off High” column. The “Action” column will signal a “Sell” once the -7.5% point is taken out in the “Off High” column.

3. Domestic Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) bounced back and remain above their respective long-term trend lines by the following percentages:

Domestic TTI: +2.42% (last Friday +1.86%)

International TTI: +3.61% (last Friday +2.74%)

Have a great weekend.

Ulli…

Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as advisory clients of mine, own some of these listed ETFs. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the guidelines specified.

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READER Q & A FOR THE WEEK

All Reader Q & A’s are listed at our web site!
Check it out at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/q&a.php

A note from reader Don:

Q: Ulli: When I subtract the dividend for an ETF from the high close for sell stop purposes, the sell stop is sometimes considerably less than it would be if I deducted the 7.5% from the high close. Am I right to use the high close less the dividends to compute the sell stop?

A: Don: Yes, when the price of an ETF is reduced by the amount of the dividend paid, you need to adjust the former high price by the same amount. Otherwise, your sell stop discipline is out of whack.

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WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?

Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly or get more details at:

https://theetfbully.com/personal-investment-management/

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Back issues of the ETF/No Load Fund Tracker are available on the web at:

https://theetfbully.com/newsletter-archives/

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For May 2, 2014

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

————————————————————-

THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2014/05/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-05012014/

————————————————————

Market Commentary

Friday, May 2, 2014

MARKETS UP OVERALL FOR THE WEEK ON STRONG JOBS DATA

Fri pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving The Markets

While markets slid a bit today, all three major indexes posted gains for the week as the 5-day chart above shows. The key market driver today was the much anticipated jobs report, which revealed better-than-expected data; at least on the surface. The fact that the 2 surveys used, namely the household and establishment surveys, showed a huge divergence was conveniently overlooked.

Be that as it may, data showed U.S. job growth picked up at its fastest pace in more than two years in April, suggesting a sharp rebound in economic activity early in the second quarter. Factory orders — up a strong 1.1% for March — offered another dose of good economic news but not enough to power an earlier rally through the session’s closing bell.

Healthcare shares were among the biggest strains on the market today, including U.S. drug maker Pfizer Inc (PFE) whose shares fell 1.3% after its sweetened bid for AstraZeneca Plc (AZN) was rejected.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei index ticked down 0.2% to 14,457.51 and share prices fell in Singapore and Indonesia, while they rose in Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines. The international realm is acting very unpredictable at present, especially with tensions heating up between Russia and the Ukraine.

Our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight recovered during this rebound week; none of them made new highs today but 9 of them are on the plus side YTD.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 05/01/2014

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, May 1, 2014

Table of Content082312

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/25/2011

TTI0501

Our main directional indicator, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI), broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the recent past, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. The clear break to the upside occurred on 10/24/11 and, effective 10/25/11, a new Buy signal for domestic equities went into effect.

As of today, our TTI (green line in above chart) is positioned above its long term trend line (red) by +2.49%.

To avoid a potential whip-saw, a Sell signal to move out of all domestic equity positions will be generated once we have clearly pierced the red line to the downside. Be sure to tune in for the latest updates.

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