07-11-2014

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ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For July 11, 2014

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2014/07/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-07102014/

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Market Commentary

Friday, July 11, 2014

GLOBAL ECONOMY CONCERNS & EARNINGS ANTICIPATION LEAVES MARKET LOWER FOR THE WEEK

Fri pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Stocks ended the week lower, pulling back slightly from record highs. The Dow fell from its record high 17,000 mark to end the week down-0.7%. The S&P dropped 0.9%, and the Nasdaq fell 1.35%.

Global economic growth concerns surfaced after disappointing economic readings in China, Japan, and the EU. Caution also rose following news of potential financial problems with a Portuguese bank, reminding investors that the EU is still susceptible to periodic setbacks from the European Debt Crisis. Despite the recent drop in stock prices, markets remain broadly higher on the year, with the S&P 500 still up roughly 7% in 2014, continuing its 5-year bull run.

After what has appeared to be fairly steady US economic growth this year, investors await corporate earnings results for the second quarter. According to FactSet, S&P 500 companies are forecast to report a 4.8% increase in second-quarter earnings per share from a year ago after a 2.1% rise in earnings in the first quarter of 2014. Only a few major companies had released earnings reports by the end of the week, making any overall trend difficult to discern at this early stage.

Let’s stay tuned for next week!

Our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight slipped for the week with none of them making a new high for the day.

2. ETFs in the Spotlight

In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.

It features 10 broadly diversified ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Monday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year.

Here are the 10 candidates:

MaxDD

All of them are in “buy” mode, meaning their prices are above their respective long term trend lines by the percentage indicated (%M/A).

Year to date, here’s how the above candidates have fared so far:

YTD

To be clear, the first table above shows the position of the various ETFs in relation to their respective long term trend lines (%M/A), while the second one tracks their trailing sell stops in the “Off High” column. The “Action” column will signal a “Sell” once the -7.5% point is taken out in the “Off High” column.

3. Domestic Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) retreated from last week’s high and closed as follows:

Domestic TTI: +3.05% (last Friday +4.21%)

International TTI: +3.05% (last Friday +5.20%)

Have a nice weekend.

Ulli…

Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as advisory clients of mine, own some of these listed ETFs. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the guidelines specified.

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READER Q & A FOR THE WEEK

All Reader Q & A’s are listed at our web site!
Check it out at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/q&a.php

A note from reader Joe:

Q: Ulli: If the bubble bursts, where do we need to be invested? Or do we need to be in cash?

A: Joe: The first move, once the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI) breaks below its long-term trend line indicating an upcoming bear market, is to the safety of the money market funds, as markets tend to get extremely volatile during a severe correction.

Then we can then evaluate, without being emotionally attached, if there are any asset classes, such as bond ETFs that are rallying despite the equity meltdown. If that’s the case, we may get invested in those areas. If things look uncertain, we will remain safely on the sidelines until the fog clears.

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WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?

Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly or get more details at:

https://theetfbully.com/personal-investment-management/

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Back issues of the ETF/No Load Fund Tracker are available on the web at:

https://theetfbully.com/newsletter-archives/

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For July 11, 2014

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

————————————————————-

THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2014/07/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-07102014/

————————————————————

Market Commentary

Friday, July 11, 2014

GLOBAL ECONOMY CONCERNS & EARNINGS ANTICIPATION LEAVES MARKET LOWER FOR THE WEEK

Fri pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Stocks ended the week lower, pulling back slightly from record highs. The Dow fell from its record high 17,000 mark to end the week down-0.7%. The S&P dropped 0.9%, and the Nasdaq fell 1.35%.

Global economic growth concerns surfaced after disappointing economic readings in China, Japan, and the EU. Caution also rose following news of potential financial problems with a Portuguese bank, reminding investors that the EU is still susceptible to periodic setbacks from the European Debt Crisis. Despite the recent drop in stock prices, markets remain broadly higher on the year, with the S&P 500 still up roughly 7% in 2014, continuing its 5-year bull run.

After what has appeared to be fairly steady US economic growth this year, investors await corporate earnings results for the second quarter. According to FactSet, S&P 500 companies are forecast to report a 4.8% increase in second-quarter earnings per share from a year ago after a 2.1% rise in earnings in the first quarter of 2014. Only a few major companies had released earnings reports by the end of the week, making any overall trend difficult to discern at this early stage.

Let’s stay tuned for next week!

Our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight slipped for the week with none of them making a new high for the day.

Read More

Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 07/10/2014

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, July 10, 2014

Table of Content082312

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/25/2011

TTI

Our main directional indicator, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI), broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the recent past, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. The clear break to the upside occurred on 10/24/11 and, effective 10/25/11, a new Buy signal for domestic equities went into effect.

As of today, our TTI (green line in above chart) is positioned above its long term trend line (red) by +3.02%.

To avoid a potential whip-saw, a Sell signal to move out of all domestic equity positions will be generated once we have clearly pierced the red line to the downside. Be sure to tune in for the latest updates.

Read More

Portuguese Bank Concerns Drive Markets Lower; Earnings Season Continues

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Thur pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving The Markets

Markets dropped today amidst questions over the health of a large Portuguese bank namely Banco Espirito Santo. Concerns over a delayed payment caused a stock sell-off in Europe and the angst spread to Wall Street. The Dow, which had dropped as much as 180 points on the day, ended down 71 points, or 0.4%. The S&P 500 fell 0.4%, and the Nasdaq lost 0.5%. Meanwhile, U.S. economic data continued to show an improving economy. The number of people who applied for unemployment benefits in the first week of July fell to a seven-year low.

United Continental Holdings Inc. (UAL) shares jumped 7.1% after the company’s revenue per available seat mile, a closely watched sales metric in the airline industry, increased by 3.5% in the second quarter from a year earlier.

On Friday, the earnings season kick off continues as Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) reports before the opening bell. Look for market shifts as a response to corporate earnings announcements through the end of June. More than 140 companies in the S&P 500, including Citigroup Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Johnson & Johnson, will report quarterly results between now and July 23, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The Nikkei 225 index (NIK) fell 0.6%, but other Asian markets were flat or slightly higher today. Chinese exports for June rose 7.2% in June from a year earlier, far below the 10% rise expected from economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal.

Our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight meandered lower and no new highs were made.

Read More

Markets Snap Losing Streak; Airlines ‘Take Off’ Again

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Wed pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving The Markets

Stocks broke their two-day losing streak today as investors became encouraged by better-than-expected earnings reports from Alcoa (AA). All of the major indexes gained. In other earnings news, shares of The Container Store (TCS) dropped 9% after the specialty retailer reported earnings below expectations and said it was experiencing a retail “funk.”

The Fed was back in the headlines today as they announced that they are leaning toward ending the central bank’s monthly bond-buying stimulus in October. Citing an improving labor market and economy, Fed policymakers have tapered their government bond purchases in $10 billion increments at each meeting since December, cutting them to $35 billion a month from $85 billion.

Economists have debated whether the Fed would continue to trim the purchases by $10 billion at the October meeting — leaving it buying $5 billion in bonds until the December meeting — or cut the purchases by $15 billion to zero in October.

You may remember that a couple of days ago I noted that airlines had taken a dive due to decreased international traveler flow to Latin America during the World Cup season. Well, airlines bounced back today. Shares of American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) and Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) jumped 4% and nearly 2% respectively on positive forecasts for the second quarter. The companies reported increased demand for air travel in the coming summer months and abated concerns about the health of the sector’s profit margins.

Our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight recovered with one of them again managing to make a new high for the year.

Read More

Investors Remain Bearish Ahead Of Q2 Earnings Season

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Tue chart

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving The Markets

It was a good day for German soccer fans, but the same joys were not felt by U.S. investors. Stocks tumbled as the Dow fell nearly 118 points, ending the trading day below the glorious 17,000 mark it surpassed for the first time recently. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq retreated as well, as the chart above shows.

The buzz on market sentiment today again centered on the upcoming Q2 earnings season. According to Thomson Reuters, the number of companies expecting profit shortfalls outnumbers those predicting upside earnings surprises by a 4 to 1 ratio, which is above the long-term average of 2.6. Thus, investors remain bearish on upcoming earnings announcements.

Weakness in tech shares pressured the Nasdaq today, with Internet names especially hit hard. Netflix Inc (NFLX) fell 3.4% to $445.05 while Facebook Inc (FB) dropped 3.9% to $62.76. Also, TripAdvisor Inc (TRIP) sank 5.5% to $101.45.

Asian stock markets were mostly lower as Japan’s Nikkei 225 index slipped 0.4% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was basically flat.

Our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight slipped a bit but one of them actually managed to eked out a gain on this bearish day.

Read More