ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For January 9, 2015

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ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2015/01/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-01082015/

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Market Commentary

Friday, January 9, 2015

MARKETS COULDN’T HOLD MOMENTUM TO FINISH THE WEEK

Fri pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Volatility has been the ­name of the game thus far as we round out the second week of trading in 2015. After two straight days of gains and a revived bullish sentiment, all major indexes tumbled back into the red today. Looking back on the week, you may remember that the DOW took a major dive on Monday and Tuesday before mounting a 536 point rebound on Wednesday and Thursday.

In economic news, the slower-than-usual economic recovery still shows signs of acceleration, giving it strength to last longer than average. The U.S. economy added 256,000 jobs in December, slightly above the expected increase of 240,000. In addition, the unemployment rate dropped to 5.6% from 5.8%, although much can be contributed to people dropping out of the labor pool.

For all you BitCoin lovers, BitStamp, the world’s third-largest bitcoin exchange, saved its reputation today by reopening for business within a week of losing upward of $5 million worth of bitcoins due to a security breach. CEO Nejc Kodric was quoted today saying that the new service will be “safer and more secure than ever,” and this includes new cloud support from Amazon.

In the week to come, inflation readings will get the bulk of the attention, as declining energy prices have dampened inflation readings and expectations as of late. The PPI will be released on Thursday followed by the consumer price index on Friday. Other readings include the retail sales for December, consumer sentiment and industrial production. We’ll also get early figures on manufacturing activity in January from the Philadelphia and New York regions.

All of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight headed lower today with financials (IYF) taking the lead with -1.26%. 3 of the 10 ETFs listed have managed to eke gains YTD as you can see in section 2.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 01/08/2015

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, January 8, 2015

TOC 121514

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/22/2014

TTI

Our main directional indicator, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI), broke through its long-term trend line generating a “Sell” for this arena effective 10/14/2014, which was followed by a violent break back above the line on 10/22/14 generating a new “Buy.” It was a classic whipsaw signal, and you can read more on my blog as to the events as they were unfolding.

As of today, our TTI (green line in above chart) is positioned above its long term trend line (red) by +2.88% keeping us in the market with newly established positions.

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Markets Turn Around After Worst 3-Day Start Since ‘08

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Thur pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Stocks rallied big time for a second straight day. The Dow advanced 323 points today and has almost wiped out early-year losses. The advance was broad, with the S&P materials, energy and technology sectors each rising more than 2%, leading the day’s gains.

The same forces that sparked the market bounce Wednesday — stabilization in oil prices and rising hopes for more aggressive stimulus from central bankers in the Eurozone — drove prices higher again Thursday.

U.S. crude oil, whose free-fall was among the catalysts for the recent selloff in stocks, gained for a second day, settling at $48.79 per barrel. Signs that oil prices may be stabilizing have boosted investor sentiment, although market analysts were still not ready to say prices had found a floor.

A continuation of good economic data at home this morning also gave Wall Street reason to breathe more easily. The number of Americans filing initial jobless claims fell 4,000 last week to 294,000. That positive news follows Wednesday’s better-than-expected readings on private job creation last month and a temporary sizable drop in the nation’s deficit for November.

Again, all of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight closed up with iShares Global 100 (IOO) being the winner with a gain of +1.95% for the day. Two new highs were made as the YTD table below shows.

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Markets Bounce Back Today; Not A Fed Minute Too Soon

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Wed pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

If you read yesterday’s article, you may remember that I mentioned the Dow has dropped 500 points in the last two days. Well, today the Dow regained 200 points as all major indexes rallied more than 1.15%.

The Fed minutes release of their last month’s meeting was the main driver that pushed markets higher today. The minutes from the Dec. 16-17 meeting noted that the U.S. central bank said economic weakness abroad posed a “downside risk” to the U.S. economy, but was quick to shrug off those worries because they expect more stringent further reponses from foreign central banks to help jumpstart Eurozone growth.  In closing, the minutes also reemphasized that they will remain patient regarding interest rate hikes later this year.

Declining oil prices have been all over the news during the past two months, but today prices bounced back, snapping a four-day losing streak. Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) shares rose 1% to $90.72.

Shares of Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc (DKS) gained 11.7% today to close at $55.01 a share. According to Reuters, people familiar with the matter said the company is holding early-stage conversations with a handful of buyout firms about going private.

All of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight joined the reversal and closed higher with healthcare (XLV) being the clear winner with a gain of +2.35% for the day.

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Markets Continue Slipping On Oil Prices

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Tue pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Markets continued their shaky start to 2015 today, as all major indexes finished in negative territory. The Dow has now lost more than 500 points in the last two trading sessions and the S&P 500 is down 2.73% over the first 3 trading sessions of the year.

The culprit behind the markets continued slide appears to still be falling oil prices and woes over the state of the European economy. We also heard some negative sentiment from Bill Gross today (former PIMCO bond giant), who said that “good times are over” and that many asset classes will finish the year with losses.

In regards to Europe, ample concern remains that the ECB won’t be able to curb the Eurozone’s dangerous dance with deflation. Many analysts were saying today that even if the ECB launches a full-scale, Federal Reserve-style government bond-buying program later this month that it may be too much too late.

J.C. Penny was back in the news today. The stock surged more than 20% in after-hours trading once it posted a 3.7% gain in same-store sales for November and December. J.C. Penney had been struggling to regain its footing with customers since a botched revamp in 2012. This Holiday season beats out last year’s November/December same-store sales gain of 3.1%.

All of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight headed south with the conservative ones like XLP, XLV and SPLV holding up the best.

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Stocks Take A Hit To Start Of 2015

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Mon pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Stocks took their biggest hit in the past couple of months with all major indexes retreating as the chart shows.  Crude oil also plunged down to $49.97/barrel today, which is a nine-year low, while Europe benchmarks fell as much as 3.3%.

Traders are fearful that collapsing oil prices somehow signal the rising risk of a global recession; however, many analysts also countered today saying that there are allegedly plenty of policy tools that central bankers can use to stabilize the global economy.

While oil may be a concern at the forefront of all investors’ attention, another concern may be surfacing. After having climbed steadily since the financial crisis, according to Reuters, the net negative credit balances that investors have in their brokerage accounts is reaching record levels and are now starting to raise concerns about overuse of margin debt among ordinary account holders.

Moreover, with potential short-term interest-rate hikes coming as soon as later this year, paying interest on margin debt could soon become a much bigger burden. However, other analysts were quick to counter saying that as long as the U.S. economy continues to steadily climb upwards then there is no need to worry.

Let’s stay tuned to see how the markets shake off the first day jitters of 2015.

All of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight slipped to varying degrees. Section 3 shows the “Off High” percentages, which I use as a basis for tracking our trailing sell stops.

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