03-13-2015

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ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For March 13, 2015

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2015/03/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-03122015/

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Market Commentary

Friday, March 13, 2015

STUMBLING ON A ROCKY ROAD

Fri pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Yesterday’s great rebound smelled like a dead cat bounce just 24 hours later, as the major indexes hit reverse but managed to cut losses during the past 30 minutes of trading.

This is now the third straight week that the main indexes have slipped, as wild swings in currencies and the dollar combined forces to give the bears the upper hand for the time being. Not helping were a host of facts, such as oil prices nearly slumping 10%, commodity prices slipping and weak economic data souring the mood while investors were wondering if a rate hike by the Fed in this environment is truly a realistic expectation.

Especially, when considering lack of wage growth, a slack in the labor market and a general slowdown in world economies, I am a little perplexed as to what the Fed sees in order to consider a tightening move. I guess we’ll have to wait and see until more details become known. I for one would not be surprised to see the rate hike scenario to be postponed.

All of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight headed south today with SPLV taking the lead at -0.88%, despite yesterday’s great move to the upside, while healthcare (XLV) showed the most resistance by only surrendering -0.19%. 5 of them remain positive YTD.

2. ETFs in the Spotlight

In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.

It features 10 broadly diversified ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Monday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year.

Here are the 10 candidates:

MaxDD

The above table simply demonstrates the magnitude with which some of the ETFs are fluctuating in regards to their positions above or below their respective individual trend lines (%M/A). A break below, represented by a negative number, shows weakness, while a break above, represented by a positive percentage, shows strength.

For hundreds of ETF/Mutual fund choices, be sure to reference Thursday’s StatSheet.

Year to date, here’s how the above candidates have fared so far:

YTD

Again, the first table above shows the position of the various ETFs in relation to their respective long term trend lines (%M/A), while the second one tracks their trailing sell stops in the “Off High” column. The “Action” column will signal a “Sell” once the -7.5% point has been taken out in the “Off High” column.

3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) followed the major indexes down during this roller coaster week and, while both of them slipped, the international one took a bigger hit as today’s numbers show:

Domestic TTI: +2.47% (last Friday +2.74%)—Buy signal effective 10/22/2014

International TTI: +1.98% (last Friday +2.98%)—Buy signal effective 2/13/2015

Have a nice weekend.

Ulli…

Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as advisory clients of mine, own some of these listed ETFs. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the guidelines specified.

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READER Q & A FOR THE WEEK

All Reader Q & A’s are listed at our web site!
Check it out at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/q&a.php

Reader Ed:

Q: Ulli: Do you post a sell signal for US ETFs/Funds should it occur during the week, between newsletters?

A: Ed: Whenever a Buy or Sell signal occurs I post it to the blog the same day. It also gets emailed to all subscribers, but I recommend you check the blog when we appear to get close, since email delivery is not always very reliable.

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WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?

Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly or get more details at:

https://theetfbully.com/personal-investment-management/

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Back issues of the ETF/No Load Fund Tracker are available on the web at:

https://theetfbully.com/newsletter-archives/

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For March 13, 2015

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

————————————————————-

THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2015/03/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-03122015/

————————————————————

Market Commentary

Friday, March 13, 2015

STUMBLING ON A ROCKY ROAD

Fri pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Yesterday’s great rebound smelled like a dead cat bounce just 24 hours later, as the major indexes hit reverse but managed to cut losses during the past 30 minutes of trading.

This is now the third straight week that the main indexes have slipped, as wild swings in currencies and the dollar combined forces to give the bears the upper hand for the time being. Not helping were a host of facts, such as oil prices nearly slumping 10%, commodity prices slipping and weak economic data souring the mood while investors were wondering if a rate hike by the Fed in this environment is truly a realistic expectation.

Especially, when considering lack of wage growth, a slack in the labor market and a general slowdown in world economies, I am a little perplexed as to what the Fed sees in order to consider a tightening move. I guess we’ll have to wait and see until more details become known. I for one would not be surprised to see the rate hike scenario to be postponed.

All of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight headed south today with SPLV taking the lead at -0.88%, despite yesterday’s great move to the upside, while healthcare (XLV) showed the most resistance by only surrendering -0.19%. 5 of them remain positive YTD.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 03/12/2015

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, March 12, 2015

TOC021915

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/22/2014

TTI

Our main directional indicator, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI), broke through its long-term trend line generating a “Sell” for this arena effective 10/14/2014, which was followed by a violent break back above the line on 10/22/14 generating a new “Buy.” It was a classic whipsaw signal, and you can read more on my blog as to the events as they were unfolding.

As of today, our TTI (green line in above chart) is positioned above its long term trend line (red) by +2.96% keeping us in the market with our established positions.

Read More

Stocks Rally With Financials Plowing Forward

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Thur pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Gains today put both the S&P 500 and Dow back into positive territory for the year. Eyes were focused on tentative announcements from the Fed regarding their stress testing on top U.S. lenders, which exceeded expectations. The conclusions were that 29 of the 31 top banks all passed with flying colors. Investors jumped back on those stocks accordingly. The largest gainers were Morgan Stanley (MS) and Citigroup (C).

Some economic news of note that came in today was that retail sales took a shard downturn of 0.6% in February. Also, weekly jobless claims fell last week to 289,000, however, this was predicted.

Moving on to oil, The U.S. benchmark (WTI) settled at $57.08 a barrel today, which was down slightly from yesterday. As you may know, oil price fluctuations have been under much speculation considering the continued rise in the USD. Typically, a weaker dollar makes dollar-priced crude cheaper for buyers using stronger currencies, tending to support demand and, in turn, prices.

All of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight joined the rebound rally and closed higher. Taking the lead were the financials (IYF) adding +2.12% while the Global 100 (IOO) was in last place with +0.98%. Recently lagging was SPLV, but it sported a nice comeback with +1.73%.

Read More

Selloffs Drag Markets Lower

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Tue pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Markets experienced one of the largest sell-off in equities over the past two months. A rising dollar value and declines in tech companies stock seemed to be the major culprits today.

In tech Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) took a hit for the sixth time in seven days, suffering its largest daily decline since 2013. Apple (AAPL) also fell today, despite the bullish news on its smart-watch of late.

How did the dollar impact markets today? Well, the currency’s climb to a 12-year high versus the euro is concerning investors that earnings may be somewhat inflated and could thus take a major hit of the dollar weakens.

An interesting piece of news that came in today was that pet retail giant PetSmart (PETM) announced it has been taken private by a group of investors called BC Partners. The acquisition was priced at $8.7 billion. Apparently, the President and CEO are stepping down as part of the deal. The company’s shares rose 4 cents to $82.99 in afternoon trading. The stock will be delisted after the close of trading Wednesday.

2 of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight managed to eke out a gain on this slippery day. The biggest loser was consumer staples (XLP), which skidded -0.77%. 2 ETFs remain green YTD as you can see in table 2.

Read More

Major Indexes Hit The Skids

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Tue pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Pricing in a potential rate hike by the Fed came home to roost as the Dow suffered its worst one-day point drop in some five months. Despite some central banks starting a quantitative easing path, such as the ECB, there was simply no support, and the major indexes went negative YTD.

Europe’s QE launch made the dollar stronger, and we might move to parity with the Euro currency. If in fact the Fed raises rates later on this year, we will be at odds with the rest of the world where lower interest rates and consequently weaker currencies are supposed to spark some growth by making exports more competitive.

This pullback reminds me of what we saw in October last year, and I am wondering if the usual assist to drive markets higher again, might be on the horizon. That assist came in form of one of the Fed’s mouthpieces jawboning about lower rates are here to stay and/or the reinstatement of QE4. Nothing would surprise me, but only time will tell if this kind of rescue effort will materialize.

To no surprise, all of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight headed south, as there was simply no place to hide today. Leading the pack down were the financials (IYF) at -1.90%, while healthcare (XLV) showed the most resistance at -1.11%. Only 2 ETFs remain on the plus side YTD.

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) retreated as well but remain on the bullish side of their respective trend lines (see table 3).

Read More