Nasdaq Tops Record High For First Time Since 2000

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Thur pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

The previous record high (5,048.62), which dates back to March 10, 2000 at the prime time height of the dot-com bubble, was surpassed today by about 12 points. What does the new record high mean exactly? Well, in the simplest sense it means that the Nasdaq has finally completely recovered 15 years later.

In general earnings news, Procter & Gamble (PG) and 3M (MMM) both fell after earnings missed expectations due to a strong dollar hurting global sales. In more enticing earnings news, Starbucks (SBUX) captured headlines today when the company posted record Q2 revenues just after the closing bell. The Q2 revenues were $4.6 bil and the bottom line was reported earnings per share of 33 cents — up 18% from the same period a year ago. As a side note, the company also reported that it opened 210 new stores in the second quarter, bringing the total stores worldwide to 22,088.

As for M&A, it was rumored today that Comcast Corp. is preparing to announce that it will abandon its attempt to buy Time Warner Cable (TWC), according to Bloomberg News. Given the size of the potential transaction ($45 billion) there has obviously been a notable level of federal involvement, which seems to have become a major headache and impediment for Comcast to move forward with the transaction.

There was not much to report in economic news, except that we received a batch of data that turned out to be weaker than estimated…notably that jobless claims rose and new home sales fell in March.

9 our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight closed on the plus side, as XLY (consumer discretionaries) took the lead with +0.50%, while XLP (consumer staples) was the lone loser with -0.34%.

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Earnings Reports Continue; No Major Impact On Markets

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Wed pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Equities rose as the major indexes moved closer to record levels, and a tech stock rally sent the Nasdaq to a new 2015 closing high.

In earnings news, Dow giants McDonald’s (MCD) and Coca-Cola (KO) helped boost the blue-chip index higher as shares of MCD jumped 3.1% and KO rose 1.3% on the companies’ earnings reports. Facebook (FB) disappointed investors by reporting first-quarter revenues that were less than expected, sending shares down more than 2% in after-hours trading. On the flip side, Boeing (BA) flew past analyst estimates in the Q1 with earnings per share of $1.97.

First-quarter earnings season will likely set much of the tone for the rest of the week. In addition, existing home sales will be reported on Wednesday after markets close, new home sales are expected Thursday, and durable goods orders are expected on Friday.

In the economic realm, excluding the often volatile auto and gas categories, retail sales posted a 0.5% increase in March, slightly below economists’ expectations. The pace of growth in consumer spending has slowed from the strong levels at the end of 2014, but remains positive nonetheless. Inflation data showed some signs of a pickup, with both the PPI and CPI indexes posting larger-than-expected increases. Despite the slight uptick though, inflation remains relatively low overall.

All our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight climbed higher with lead by IYF (Financials) with a gain of 0.85%, while the laggard turned out to be XLP (consumer staples), which edged up by 0.06%.

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Mixed Earnings News Leaves Markets In Flux

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Tue pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Stocks closed mixed as the Nasdaq jumped back above 5,000 but the Dow was dragged lower by mixed earnings news.

At the top of headlines today was Yahoo! (YHOO). The company missed earnings and revenue forecasts for Q1, which sorely disappointed investors that were hoping for a rebound to start off 2015. The company reported adjusted earnings of 15 cents a share, which is down 61% from the year-ago quarter. That missed forecasts calling for a profit of 18 cents a share. Shares are down 1.4% in afterhours trading.

As for M&A, we heard some positive news in the pharma space. In a potentially $40 billion pharma deal, Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA) offered $82 per share for Mylan (MYL). Teva’s shares rose 1.9% and Mylan’s surged 8.9%.

Internationally, stock markets marched higher today, boosted by investor optimism over recent stimulus efforts, market reform measures in China and quarterly earnings from U.S. and European companies.

4 our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight managed to eke out a gain with XLV being the leader sporting a gain of 0.66%. On the downside, the laggard of the day was DVY with a 0.56% loss.

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No Market Commentary Today

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

Due to a variety of business commitments this afternoon, I will not be able to write today’s market commentary.

Regular posting will resume tomorrow.

Ulli…

ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 04/17/2015

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 410 ETFs, of which currently 309 (last week 311) are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 97 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 53 ETFs (last week 54) have managed to remain in bullish territory after the recent market volatility.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 492 (last week 544) above the line and 328 below it out of the 820 that I follow.

Take a look:

1. ETF Master Cutline Report

2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report

3. MF Cutline Report

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.

If you missed the original post about the Cutline approach, you can read it here.

One Man’s Opinion: Is The Chinese Economy Experiencing A Fundamental Shift?

Ulli Market Review Contact

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China’s old economic growth model is indeed running out of steam, and the Chinese government  is in the middle of transitioning to a new model which is not just based on low-cost, low-wage, labor-intensive, manufacturing for export and a whole bunch of state investment, said Kevin Rudd, President of Asia Society Institute and former Prime Minister of Australia.

The transition to a new growth model is based on personal consumption and an explosion in services industry, plus a much more vibrant private-entrepreneurial sector. China is in the midst of restructuring a growth model that has been around for 35 years and flipping the old model into a change within a span of two years is difficult though there’s no denying the fact the economy is in transition.

China is likely to grow by 6 percent because that’s the minimum growth rate they would require to sustain general stability in the economy and to continue to generate sufficient employment and living standards. Therefore, if 6 percent was threatened as the fundamental basement, the government would intervene; and they have the capacity to do so, he noted.

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